The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Greg Schiano

Followed Terry Shea. Greg Schiano raised Rutgers from Regional Program V to National Program II.

99–108

2001–now · 1 stint

Rutgers

← all coaches

In his own words

Awaiting signal — no quotes collected from this staff yet this cycle.

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 8th career season — faster than 7% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #617 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Rutgers, 18 seasons (active)

+23.7

Regional Program VI → Regional Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Rutgers13.4pt#71 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

4–4 against his rivals. Winless in 7 tries against Rich Rodriguez.

Rivalry record

4–4

50.0% · 1 rival

One-score games

32–32

50.0% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–10

0.0%

Buyout owed

$23,735,156 (est.)

bigger than 71% of FBS buyouts

Rivalry ledger

Maryland4–450%

The toughest matchup

vs. Rich Rodriguez0–7

7 meetings, 2001–2007

’01 L’02 L’03 L’04 L’05 L’06 L’07 L

0% win rate across a real, 7-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Blue Blood

0–10 0.0%

Power Program

7–39 15.2%

National Program

29–36 44.6%

Regional Program

46–18 71.9%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

-0.66

#315 of 319 · less than most

Defense marginal impact

-0.37

#308 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

What fans are saying

Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim

program directionLimited signal that season

fans believe the team is stuck in mediocrity

Dude is like the ultimate example of P5 college football purgatory: will probably never get the team to the next level of achievement, but has done too well to easily justify firing.
Our famously defensive oriented coach had one of the worst defenses of his career this year, possibly THE worst. You get the 2023 defense with this year's offense and we're probably 9-3.

Based on 2 comments from 2 posters across 2 threads · Aug 29, 2025–Nov 30, 2025 · via CFB

Show all 3

job securityOne fan's take

One fan thinks the team's performance is unacceptable under his leadership

he shouldn't even be allowed back on the plane tonight, but i fear that we're going to ride this out for the season just to bring the buyout down.

Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Sep 12, 2026 · via CFB

program directionOne fan's take

One fan believes Greg Schiano has made changes to the coaching staff

Rutgers' Greg Schiano calls his 5-7 unacceptable last season, and feels he's fixed it. Says the emphasis is on better ball security and forcing turnovers, cites the hiring of new DC Travis Johansen.

Based on 1 comment across 1 thread · Jul 28, 2026

Coaching career

2001–now

Rutgersbuilderborderline

Regional Program V → National Program II

Greg Schiano raised Rutgers from Regional Program V to National Program II.

4th-best Rutgers tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-32.6 pts

#203 of 208 · less than most

Defense vs. talent

-22.7 pts

#183 of 208 · less than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Terry Shea (1996–2000).

Season	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	2–9	1–11	5–7	4–7	7–5	11–2	8–5	8–5	9–4	4–8	9–4	9–4	6–7	8–5	4–8	2–10	4–8	1–11	1–7	3–6	5–8	4–8	7–6	7–6	5–7	0–0
Postseason	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	W bowl	—	—	—	—	—	—	L bowl	—	W bowl	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	#56	#56	#64	#42	#56	#64	#64	#41	#33	#57	#36	#33	#36
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	42.2	41.8	40.4	38.7	45.3	37.8	47.4	44.1	43.5	36.3	43.5	44.8	49.6
Coordinators
OC	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	Ralph Friedgen	Ben McDaniels	Drew Mehringer	Jerry Kill	John McNulty	John McNulty	Sean Gleeson	Sean Gleeson	Sean Gleeson	Kirk Ciarrocca	Kirk Ciarrocca	Kirk Ciarrocca	Kirk Ciarrocca
DC	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	Joe Rossi	Joe Rossi	Jay Niemann	Bill Busch / Jay Niemann	Jay Niemann	Andy Buh / Noah Joseph	Robb Smith	Robb Smith	Joe Harasymiak	Joe Harasymiak	Joe Harasymiak	Robb Smith / Zach Sparber	Travis Johansen
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	63	47	0	5	3	1	9	3	1	28	56	60	26
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	11	11	37	40	47	13	27	24	59	55	9	1	8
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	36.2	34.2	35.6	31.6	38.1	29.7	41.8	38.6	30.2	35.0	39.8	46.3	52.1
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	33.0	35.6	34.5	23.6	45.7	34.0	37.5	30.0	46.0	36.1	38.7	43.1	35.0
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	27.3	42.4	29.7	13.6	18.2	20.7	36.1	47.6	18.8	37.2	45.0	54.8	—

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.1★ avg rating

Portal departures

103

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-42

#124 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 246 lbs

across 45 of 61 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+4.8 lbs

#96 of 255 · a typical amount

Avg. class year

#4 of 255 · more than most

Top states: NJ (8), NY (6), PA (4), ON (3), FL (3)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

57.2

position-weighted

Talent lost

57.3

position-weighted

Net

-0.1

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Dylan Lonergan (QB) from Boston College

Biggest loss: Artur Sitkowski (QB) to Illinois

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Ralph Friedgen → Ben McDaniels · 2015

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 36.2% → 34.2% (-2.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 46% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Drew Mehringer → Jerry Kill · 2017

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 35.6% → 31.6% (-3.9 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 54% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Jerry Kill → John McNulty · 2018

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 31.6% → 38.1% (+6.5 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 48% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

OC: Sean Gleeson → Kirk Ciarrocca · 2023the offense leveled up

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 34.4% → 37.4% (+3.1 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 44% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Jay Niemann → co-Bill Busch / Jay Niemann · 2017

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: co-Bill Busch / Jay Niemann → Jay Niemann · 2018

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Robb Smith → Joe Harasymiak · 2022the defense improved

2-season window either side.

DC: Joe Harasymiak → co-Robb Smith / co-Zach Sparber · 2025

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: co-Robb Smith / co-Zach Sparber → Travis Johansen · 2026

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

213 lbs

6′3″ avg · #376 of 767 · a typical amount

Running back

206 lbs

5′10″ avg · #448 of 791 · a typical amount

Wide receiver

193 lbs

6′1″ avg · #378 of 791 · a typical amount

Tight end

252 lbs

6′4″ avg · #141 of 731 · more than most

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

307 lbs

6′5″ avg · #460 of 779 · a typical amount

D-line

273 lbs

6′4″ avg · #604 of 753 · less than most

Linebacker

230 lbs

6′2″ avg · #323 of 772 · a typical amount

Cornerback

197 lbs

6′0″ avg · #65 of 771 · more than most

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows LS from high school

75%

#12 of 12 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

83%

#155 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2014: Beat North Carolina 40–21 Quick Lane Bowl2021: Lost to Wake Forest 10–38 TaxSlayer Gator Bowl2023: Beat Miami 31–24 Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl2024: Lost to Kansas State 41–44 Rate Bowl

40 NFL Draft picks: Mike McMahon (2001), L.J. Smith (2003), Nathan Jones (2004), Raheem Orr (2004), Brian Leonard (2007), Cameron Stephenson (2007), Clark Harris (2007), Ray Rice (2008) + 32 more

2 player-seasons honored (All-America / national award): Adam Korsak (2022), KJ Duff (2026)

AI Narratives — “Rutgers finishes 2025 season at 5-7” and 6 more on the team page.

99–108