Greg Schiano

Head coach · Rutgers
18th season · since 2001

At Rutgers101-114since 2001 · 2-6 this seasonHot seatHot27% · 10th of 132 jobsLast gameL 21-28vs Michigan · Oct 31Nextat WisconsinSat Nov 7 · 4:15 pm ET · BTN
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

2-6, lost 2 straight, on track for 3-9 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 6-3

’05L’06W’07W’08W’09W’11W’21L’23W’24L

Show all 9 games
2005Insight BowlL 40-452006Texas BowlW 37-102007International BowlW 52-302008PapaJohns.com BowlW 29-232009St. Petersburg BowlW 45-242011Pinstripe BowlW 27-132021Gator BowlL 10-382023Pinstripe BowlW 31-242024Rate BowlL 41-44

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 21-28 vs. Michigan Sat Oct 31
  • This season2-6 lost 2 straight
  • Hot seat27% 10th of 132
  • On track for3-9 regular season
  • Nextat Wisconsin Sat Nov 7
  • Stature91st of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 19%. Lose and he’s at 28%.

at Wisconsin, Sat Nov 7, 4:15 pm ET BTN · Wisconsin is 5-3 · Schiano vs. Luke Fickell: 0-2 · Rutgers’s chance to win: 11% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Rutgers wins: 19%, 22nd of 132Now: 27%If Rutgers loses: 28%, 10th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Rutgers wins: 19%, 22nd of 132
  • Now: 27%
  • If Rutgers loses: 28%, 10th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

27% chance he’s out after the season · 10th of 132 FBS head coaches · Hot

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow19% had they won19% had they wonLoss 28%Win 19%8%15%26%31%29%29%24%27%27%Pre1L vs. MassachusettsL2L at Boston CollegeL3L vs. USCL4W vs. HowardW5L vs. IndianaL6W at MarylandW7L at NorthwesternL8L vs. MichiganL9Chance to win at Wisconsin11%10Chance to win vs. Nebraska11%11Chance to win at Penn State13%12Chance to win vs. Michigan State50%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow19% had they wonLoss 28%Win 19%8%27%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 2-1032%
  2. 3-922%
  3. 4-816%
  4. 5-710%

The case for a change

  • 4-27against AP top-25 teams here, 2-9 against the top 10
  • 0-5against Penn State here, including 5 straight losses. Next meeting: week 12, on the road.
  • 2-6this season so far

The case for patience

  • 101wins here, the most by any Rutgers coach since 1946 (23 more than anyone)

Facts from his record in this job, both ways. No verdict.

Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

All six of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now hotter than at this point in any of them.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20202021202220232024202520262020, week 10 (3 games in): 1%, 81st-hottest of 96 FBS jobs2020, week 11 (4 games in): 1%, 82nd-hottest of 100 FBS jobs2020, week 12 (5 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 117 FBS jobs2020, week 13 (6 games in): <1%, 104th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2020, week 14 (7 games in): <1%, 104th-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2020, week 15 (8 games in): <1%, 107th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2020, week 16 (9 games in): <1%, 103rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2021, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 93rd-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2021, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 94th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 5 (5 games in): 3%, 87th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 6 (6 games in): 3%, 80th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 7 (7 games in): 4%, 76th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 8 (7 games in): 4%, 76th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 79th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 10 (9 games in): 3%, 79th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 11 (10 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 12 (11 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 13 (12 games in): 2%, 70th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 70th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 71st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2022, week 3 (3 games in): 5%, 63rd-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 7%, 60th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 7%, 58th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): 8%, 52nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (6 games in): 8%, 52nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (7 games in): 7%, 57th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): 7%, 54th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 7%, 51st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 8%, 50th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): 8%, 48th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 9%, 43rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 9%, 42nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 9%, 41st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 8%, 51st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 8%, 53rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 7%, 56th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 8%, 54th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (7 games in): 6%, 58th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (8 games in): 4%, 68th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 4%, 66th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 5%, 63rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 6%, 59th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 6%, 56th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 6%, 52nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 6%, 52nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 6%, 52nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (3 games in): 3%, 77th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 3%, 75th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 4%, 65th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 5%, 59th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 5%, 56th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 3%, 68th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 2%, 73rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 77th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 77th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 77th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 6%, 52nd-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 6%, 60th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 8%, 53rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 8%, 49th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 11%, 41st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 11%, 41st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 8%, 44th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 9%, 42nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (10 games in): 7%, 51st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 7%, 48th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 7%, 47th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 7%, 41st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 7%, 41st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 7%, 41st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 31%, 10th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 28%, 17th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 29%, 14th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 31%, 13th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 24%, 14th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 27%, 12th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 27%, 12th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 27%, 10th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 3▲ Year 7 · tenure, which this model overratesEvery season ended Cool, 2020–2025

Hottest: 2026, week 3 (31%, 10th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter Year 7 · tenure, which this model overrates

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 7 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    2-6, outscored by 39
  • ▼ Cooler
    Regional Program program · the bar going in

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 2-6 after 8 games
16% pushed out over results · of 288 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 8 games
14% pushed out over results · of 700 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$23,735,156 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 3.7× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 33%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

I'd like to be better”

Greg Schiano talks defense's struggles ahead of Rutgers football vs. Wisconsin

The Daily Targum headline · Tue Nov 3

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets

Offense: 68th of 138 per play. Defense: 126th.

Offense, per play68thOffense, starting field position115thDefense, per play126thRun defense134thWorstBest
Offense, per play68th of 138Offense, starting field position115th of 138Defense, per play126th of 138Run defense134th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Rutgers. The other two rows are where Rutgers stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Wisconsin (5-3)BTN11%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Nebraska (5-3)11%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Penn State (4-4)13%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Michigan State (2-6)50%

Percent: Rutgers’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Rutgers stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

82nd88th94thPreseason86thMassachusetts L 21-37Massachusetts L 21-37L 21-37Massachusetts88thBoston College L 21-28Boston College L 21-28L 21-28Boston College88thUSC L 35-42USC L 35-42L 35-42USC90thHoward W 58-7Howard W 58-7W 58-7Howard90thIndiana L 15-47Indiana L 15-47L 15-47Indiana91stMaryland W 37-30Maryland W 37-30W 37-30Maryland91stNorthwestern L 14-42Northwestern L 14-42L 14-42Northwestern91stMichigan L 21-28Michigan L 21-28L 21-28Michigan91st
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 21-28 vs. Michigan13 headlines · 39th of 138Rutgers Football HC Greg Schiano's Michigan Postgame Press Conference On3
  2. Oct 19–25L 14-42 at Northwestern8 headlines · 47th of 138Rutgers Head Coach Greg Schiano Talks No.24 Northwestern Game Week Yahoo Sports
  3. Oct 12–18W 37-30 at Maryland11 headlines · 32nd of 138Everything Greg Schiano said after Rutgers Football win over Maryland 247Sports
  4. Oct 5–11No game3 headlines · 63rd of 138Rutgers Head Coach Greg Schiano and Indiana Head Coach Curt Cignetti Host Post-Game Press Conferences Yahoo Sports“Our performance starts and ends with me”Greg Schiano postgame, Oct 4
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 15-47 vs. Indiana14 headlines · 31st of 138Rutgers Football HC Greg Schiano's Indiana Postgame Press Conference On3“Our performance starts and ends with me”Greg Schiano postgame, Oct 4
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 58-7 vs. Howard18 headlines · 23rd of 138Greg Schiano’s Rutgers era just got a lifeline. Here's why Yahoo Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Rutgers’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Below the median on both sides of the ball — 46th percentile offense, 45th percentile defense.

Rutgers, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

C+
of which —46th
efficiency — 46th percentile success rate, 2004–25
C44th
Standard-downs success
C+49th
Passing-downs success
C+46th
Trench push (line yards)
B-50th
Red-zone scoring rate
C+49th
Power-success (short yardage)
C+49th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

C+
of which —45th
45th percentile SP+ defense, 2014–25 (SP+ starts 2014)
D24th
Front-7 havoc
B-55th
Secondary havoc
B66th
Stuff rate (run defense)
C+45th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.