Rutgers at Wisconsin
Usual during the game: 44°, between 31° and 55° in about 7 in 10 games.
Airport reading near the stadium34 games since 2016 · How we measure
Rutgers (2‑6) at Wisconsin (5‑3) — Wisconsin is favored by 16.5. The model gives Wisconsin a 71% shot. Wisconsin’s offense is at the 81st percentile on explosive plays; Rutgers’s defense is at the 28th.
How they got here
Last three games
Rutgers · 2-6
Rated 68th in our preseason ratings, 106th now, down 38 spots.
1-2 in its last three, including a 7-point win over Maryland as a 5.5-point underdog.
Last three games
Wisconsin · 5-3
Rated 86th in our preseason ratings, 45th now, up 41 spots.
1-2 in its last three, including a 17-point win over USC as a 1.5-point underdog.
Biggest mismatch: Wisconsin’s explosive plays against Rutgers, 53 points
Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.
Wisconsin’s explosive plays against Rutgers’s defense
Wisconsin offense, 81st percentile · Rutgers defense, 28th
Rutgers’s EPA/play against Wisconsin’s defense
Rutgers offense, 47th percentile · Wisconsin defense, 92nd
Wisconsin’s rushing EPA against Rutgers’s defense
Wisconsin offense, 55th percentile · Rutgers defense, 5th
What’s at stake
Rutgers
- A win would be one of Rutgers’s biggest of the season — a 61-spot gap in the power ratings.
Wisconsin
- Wisconsin is ranked #25, right on the edge of the Top 25.
- Wisconsin is still shaking off a 30-point loss.
The series
Wisconsin leads the series 6-0
6 meetings since 2014 · Wisconsin has won the last 6
- 2024Wisconsin 42-7
- 2023Wisconsin 24-13
- 2021Wisconsin 52-3
- 2018Wisconsin 31-17
- 2015Wisconsin 48-10
Each line is Wisconsin’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Face-off
What each fanbase carries into this one.
Rutgers
The chip · vs big brotherRutgers fans are weary of being the Big Ten's welcome mat — the school the blue bloods schedule for a comfortable Saturday. They'll remind you who held the first game ever, and that the founder doesn't need anyone's permission to stay.
What this game touches
The founder who can't quite arrive. Rutgers spent 150 years on the sport's margins, then bought into the Big Ten in 2014 expecting the rising tide to lift it. The 2025 team went 5-7 (2-7 Big Ten) and turned down a bowl bid against Georgia Southern; Greg Schiano cleared out his defensive staff after the unit collapsed. The founder is still looking for its first real Big Ten breakthrough.
Wisconsin
The chip · vs the national mediaFans heard it for years — that the program was a throwback that couldn't keep up, too plodding for the modern game, a system that printed yards against everyone but the playoff teams. Wisconsin always answered by running it down their throats anyway, which is exactly the answer the 2025 team couldn't give.
What this game touches
The 2025 collapse and the identity that went with it. Wisconsin finished 4-8 (2-7 Big Ten) in Luke Fickell's third year, dropping six straight in the middle of the schedule and getting shut out 37-0 by Iowa. Quarterback injuries forced four passers onto the field behind a remade scheme — the running-game program now searching for any identity at all, on the program's worst footing in a generation.
Best players
Rutgers
- KJ Duff (WR) · 774 receiving yards
- Antwan Raymond (RB) · 733 rushing yards
- Chris Joines (DB) · 40 tackles
Wisconsin
- Cooper Catalano (LB) · 76 tackles
- Mason Posa (LB) · 65 tackles
- Matthew Jung (S) · 56 tackles
The betting line, and the fans
Rutgers fans are in a better mood than Wisconsin fans (39th percentile vs 10th among FBS fanbases), even with Wisconsin favored.
- Model · 71%
- Line · 91%
- Wisconsin fans · 10th
- Rutgers fans · 39th
Wisconsin favored by 16.5 · Total 45.5
Wisconsin by 16.5: where a favorite like this usually runs
Half of games8 in 10 games
Wisconsin’s chance through the game, if this goes like the 275 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.
Weather at kickoff
Typical at Camp Randall Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 84 to 88
Rutgers at Wisconsin · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 4:15 pm ET · Camp Randall Stadium.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
If it kicked off at
Typical at Camp Randall Stadium: noon Saturdays score 88, 3:30 pm 85, 7:30 pm 84.
- noon: 88, Mixed
- 3:30 pm: 85, Mixed
- 7:30 pm: 84, Mixed
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Typical means the average of regular-season Saturdays at this stadium, 2018 to 2025. It is not a forecast for this game.
Home field
Wisconsin is worth +5.5 points (±4.7) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 74th percentile.
66% at home, 41% on the road against FBS opponents (35-18 home, 16-23 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.4 at home vs. away over 95 games — inside the ±7.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
The visitors travel about 789 miles to get here.
Season profile
Week by week
Wisconsin
- Wk 4Wat Penn State24-20
- Wk 5Wvs Michigan State31-3
- Wk 7Lat UCLA7-17
- Wk 8Wvs USC24-7
- Wk 9Lat Iowa0-30
Rutgers
- Wk 4Wvs Howard58-7
- Wk 5Lvs Indiana15-47
- Wk 7Wat Maryland37-30
- Wk 8Lat Northwestern14-42
- Wk 9Lvs Michigan21-28
Power rating by week
Wisconsin is rated 6.6 points ahead as of week 10. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The market
The total fell 1 point.
Total: 46.5 → 45.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.