Ryan Beard

Head coach · Coastal Carolina
1st season · since 2026 · Missouri State before

At school3-5since 2026 · 3-5 this seasonHot seatCool2% · 81st of 132 jobsLast gameW 31-20at Georgia State · Oct 31Nextvs Old DominionSat Nov 7 · 1 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

3-5, on track for 4-8 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 31-20 at Georgia State Sat Oct 31
  • This season3-5
  • On track for4-8 regular season
  • Nextvs. Old Dominion Sat Nov 7
  • Stature109th of 138 FBS programs

Saturday: vs. Old Dominion

Sat Nov 7, 1 pm ET ESPN+ · Old Dominion is 2-7 · First meeting between Beard and Ricky Rahne as head coaches · Coastal Carolina’s chance to win: 71% (the site’s model)

His week

Coastal Carolina Athletics · 121 views by Wednesday

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 84th of 138 per play. Defense: 106th.

Offense, per play84thOffense, staying on schedule120thDefense, per play106thPass defense132ndWorstBest
Offense, per play84th of 138Offense, staying on schedule120th of 138Defense, per play106th of 138Pass defense132nd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Coastal Carolina. The other two rows are where Coastal Carolina stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Old Dominion (2-7)ESPN+71%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Arkansas State (4-4)ESPN+46%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Louisiana (5-3)12%
  4. Sat Nov 28at James Madison (7-2)13%

Percent: Coastal Carolina’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Coastal Carolina stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

102nd108th114thPreseason106thWest Virginia L 24-31West Virginia L 24-31L 24-31West Virginia106thFordham W 45-7Fordham W 45-7W 45-7Fordham108thDelaware L 14-22Delaware L 14-22L 14-22Delaware108thLiberty L 17-34Liberty L 17-34L 17-34Liberty108thGeorgia Southern L 24-31Georgia Southern L 24-31L 24-31Georgia South…109thMarshall W 27-21Marshall W 27-21W 27-21Marshall108thApp State L 32-35App State L 32-35L 32-35App State107thGeorgia State W 31-20Georgia State W 31-20W 31-20Georgia State110th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 31-20 at Georgia State0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25No game0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18L 32-35 vs. App State0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11W 27-21 at Marshall0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 24-31 vs. Georgia Southern2 headlines · 75th of 138
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 17-34 vs. Liberty2 headlines · 76th of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Coastal Carolina’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

2%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool81st-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 73rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 4%, 72nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 3%, 78th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    3-5, outscoring opponents by 13
  • ▼ Cooler
    No previous seasons here to judge him on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 3-5 after 8 games
18% pushed out over results · of 379 coaches
Were in year 1, after 8 games
1% pushed out over results · of 521 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

1%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled99th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    His first season at Coastal Carolina
  • ▲ Higher
    No record for him here before this season · his first year in the job
  • ▼ Lower
    His team is 3-5, outscoring opponents by 1.6 points a game
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.