This week · as of Wed Nov 4

1-8, lost 6 straight, on track for 2-9 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 20-26 at San Diego State Sat Oct 31
  • This season1-8 lost 6 straight
  • Hot seat5% 56th of 132
  • On track for2-9 regular season
  • Nextvs. Colorado State Sat Nov 14 (no game this week)
  • Stature82nd of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 4%. Lose and he’s at 7%.

No game this week · vs. Colorado State, Sat Nov 14, 10:30 pm ET CBS Sports Network · Colorado State is 3-5 · First meeting between Moore and Jim Mora as head coaches · Washington State’s chance to win: 55% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Washington State wins: 4%, 64th of 132Now: 5%If Washington State loses: 7%, 47th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Washington State wins: 4%, 64th of 132
  • Now: 5%
  • If Washington State loses: 7%, 47th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

5% chance he’s out after the season · 56th of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow3% had they wonLoss 7%Win 4%1%1%2%2%2%3%4%5%4%5%Pre1L at WashingtonL2L at Kansas StateL3W vs. DuquesneW4L vs. ArizonaL5L vs. Fresno StateL6L at Utah StateL7L at Oregon StateL8L vs. Boise StateL9L at San Diego StateL10Chance to win vs. Colorado State55%11Chance to win at Texas State12%12Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow3% had they wonLoss 7%Win 4%1%5%Pre36912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 1-117%
  2. 2-104%
  3. 3-93%
  4. 4-82%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 90th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 86th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 3%, 76th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 4%, 70th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 5%, 68th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 4%, 68th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (9 games in): 5%, 61st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (9 games in): 5%, 56th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    1-8, outscored by 76
  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    No previous seasons here to judge him on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 1-8 after 9 games
21% pushed out over results · of 136 coaches
Were in year 1, after 9 games
1% pushed out over results · of 518 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

Several stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from a few outlets

Offense: 130th of 138 per play. Defense: 72nd.

Offense, per play130thOffense, starting field position131stDefense, per play72ndDefense, opponents' starting field position135thWorstBest
Offense, per play130th of 138Offense, starting field position131st of 138Defense, per play72nd of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position135th of 138WorstBest
Through 9 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Washington State. The other two rows are where Washington State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

2 games left

  1. Sat Nov 14vs. Colorado State (3-5)CBS Sports Network55%
  2. Sat Nov 21at Texas State (4-4)USA Network12%

Percent: Washington State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Washington State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

73rd79th85thPreseason80thWashington L 10-24Washington L 10-24L 10-24Washington79thKansas State L 7-34Kansas State L 7-34L 7-34Kansas State76thDuquesne W 48-7Duquesne W 48-7W 48-7Duquesne77thArizona L 24-34Arizona L 24-34L 24-34Arizona76thFresno State L 6-26Fresno State L 6-26L 6-26Fresno State78thUtah State L 16-17Utah State L 16-17L 16-17Utah State81stOregon State L 30-48Oregon State L 30-48L 30-48Oregon State80thBoise State L 10-31Boise State L 10-31L 10-31Boise State81stSan Diego State L 20-26San Diego State L 20-26L 20-26San Diego Sta…81stBye82nd
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 20-26 at San Diego State8 headlines · 54th of 138Washington State Postgame: Kirby Moore, Cougar players following loss to San Diego State SWX Local Sports
  2. Oct 19–25L 10-31 vs. Boise State14 headlines · 34th of 138Washington State's costly mistake leaves Kirby Moore frustrated after Boise State loss Sports Illustrated
  3. Oct 12–18L 30-48 at Oregon State6 headlines · 47th of 138Kirby Moore Has NO ONE LEFT TO BLAME if Washington State's Offense Fails vs. Utah State First Coast News
  4. Oct 5–11L 16-17 at Utah State16 headlines · 29th of 138Kirby Moore faces tough questions about Washington State's offense after another frustrating loss Sports Illustrated
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 6-26 vs. Fresno State12 headlines · 39th of 138Kirby Moore knows exactly what Pac-12 opener means to WSU fans after waiting 1,000 days 247Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 24-34 vs. Arizona9 headlines · 40th of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Washington State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.