Next game: vs Colorado
Arizona State and Colorado are even on paper
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Arizona State offense against Colorado defense
Colorado offense against Arizona State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.18 EPA/play | 8 | 7 | 105 / 173 | 60.7 | 1360 | 7.9 | 13 #41 FBS | 5 | 145.7 | 46 | 41.8 | 7.2 | 6.0 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Starter — 173 pass attempts, 42 carries and 1 catch in 7 games, fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. This week's matchup — QB Boley operates within the system without forcing anything. Jenkins is the one who keeps the offense on schedule and doesn't lose the game. Season receipt Yards / attempt8.4 71th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate2.9% bottom 33th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cutter Boley's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.45 EPA/play | 12 | 3 | 39 / 61 | 63.9 | 448 | 7.3 | 2 | 0 | 136.4 | — | 50.2 | 6.6 | 7.6 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| +0.03 EPA/play | 2 | 3 | 26 / 50 | 52 | 224 | 4.5 | 2 | 0 | 102.8 | 36 | 44.9 | 3.8 | 12.3 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.49 EPA/play | 25 | 7 | 78 | 523 #69 FBS | 6.7 | 6 #55 FBS | 67 | 12.8 | 23.1 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Starter — 78 carries and 11 catches in 7 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Mack hits the crease and outruns the angle. Chambers is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Yards / carry7.3 96th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate7.7% 86th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cardae Mack's full player page | ||||||||||
| Satellite Back · -0.02 EPA/play | 1 | 8 | 63 | 343 | 5.4 | 1 | 46 | 17.5 | 15.9 | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. 63 carries, 13 catches and 1 pass attempt in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Brown wins in space out of the backfield. Chambers is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Receiving share17.1% 88th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception3.9 bottom 10th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kyson Brown's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.16 EPA/play | 6 | 7 | 31 | 145 | 4.7 | 1 | 27 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.69 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 48 | 804 #9 FBS | 16.8 | 8 #9 FBS | 58 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. Impact starter — 48 catches in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Harris beats you over the top. Derry is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception17.5 87th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume48 97th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Reed Harris's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.20 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 41 | 427 | 10.4 | 3 | 49 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 41 catches and 1 carry in 8 games, more catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. This week's matchup — WR Miller moves the chains on third down. Derry is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception10.9 bottom 23th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume41 91th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Omarion Miller's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.34 EPA/play | 5 | 4 | 16 | 160 | 10 | 0 | 30 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Eusebio moves the chains on third down. Derry is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception10.9 bottom 24th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Derek Eusebio's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.45 EPA/play | 7 | 6 | 9 | 127 | 14.1 | 1 | 74 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +1.18 EPA/play | 18 | 7 | 5 | 72 | 14.4 | 0 | 24 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.28 EPA/play | 9 | 4 | 6 | 48 | 8 | 0 | 13 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.66 EPA/play | — | 5 | 7 | 47 | 6.7 | 1 | 12 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 9 | 8 | 21 | 10 | 5.5 | 4 | 5 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 21 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate26.2% 84th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jalen Thompson's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 8 | 18 | 9 | 4.5 | 2 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 18 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View C.J. Fite's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 97 | 7 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight305 lb 76th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Blazen Lono-Wong's full player page | |||||||
| 92 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 | |
| 98 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | |
| 5 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| 4 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| 55 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0.5 | 2 | |
| 90 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 22 | 8 | 72 | 39 | 33 | 2.5 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — 72 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume72 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate3.5% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Owen Long's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 8 | 8 | 62 | 28 | 34 | 7.5 #73 FBS | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 62 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume62 92th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Martell Hughes's full player page | |||||||||
| 13 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 45 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 7 | 8 | 42 | 6 #43 FBS | 1 | 2.5 | 1 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Starter — 42 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 33 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate14.3% 80th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Montana Warren's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 8 | 37 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 37 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.1% 51th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Adrian Wilson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 23 | 8 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 35 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jessiah Mcgrew's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 1 | 8 | 28 | 9 #4 FBS | 0 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 28 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate32.1% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Ashton Stamps's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | — | 8 | 26 | 4 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 26 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate15.4% 84th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Rodney Bimage Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 21 | 7 | 20 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Kyan McDonald's full player page | |||||||
| 31 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 25 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 12 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 32 | 8 | 11/12 | 91.7 | 25/25 | 58 | 47 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 35 | 7 | 36 | 1534 | 42.6 | 53 | 8 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.03 EPA/play | 16 | 8 | 10 | 262 | 26.2 | 1 | 100 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1.18 EPA/play | 18 | 7 | 7 | 79 | 11.3 | 0 | 21 |
| +0.28 EPA/play | 9 | 4 | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 | 7 |
Biggest plays from Arizona State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Arizona State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q2, 0:20 · Arizona State down 4, takes the leadCutter Boley finds Reed Harris for a 25-yard touchdownArizona State at Kansas, week 3Q2, 0:20 · Arizona State 10, Kansas 7Arizona State took the lead in the second quarterArizona State took the lead in the second quarterC.Boley pass complete deep middle to R.Harris caught at KU03, for 25 yards to the KU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 14:46 · Arizona State up 3Arizona State scores a touchdownArizona State at Kansas, week 3Q3, 14:46 · Arizona State 17, Kansas 7100Kickoff return touchdown100Kickoff return touchdownKickoff return touchdownD.Efird kickoff 65 yards to the ASU00 J.Hamilton return 100 yards to the KU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q1, 3:01 · Baylor up 4D.J. Lagway finds Tony Livingston for a 3-yard touchdownBaylor at Arizona State, week 5Q1, 3:01 · Baylor 14, Arizona State 3▲20%Baylor’s chance to win, 57% to 77%▲20%Baylor’s chance to win, 57% to 77%D.Lagway pass complete short right to T.Livingston caught at ASU00, for 3 yards to the ASU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Big 12 Conference- Q2, 1:51 · Arizona State down 15Cutter Boley finds Omarion Miller for a 30-yard touchdownBaylor at Arizona State, week 5Q2, 1:51 · Arizona State 13, Baylor 21Arizona State scored with 1:51 left in the halfArizona State scored with 1:51 left in the halfC.Boley pass complete deep middle to O.Miller caught at BAY00, for 30 yards to the BAY00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play Big 12 Conference
- Q1, 9:13 · Baylor down 3, takes the leadRyelan Morris runs 63 yards for a touchdownBaylor at Arizona State, week 5Q1, 9:13 · Baylor 7, Arizona State 36363-yard touchdown run6363-yard touchdown run63-yard touchdown runR.Morris rush left for 63 yards gain to the ASU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play Big 12 Conference
Q3, 7:59 · Kansas State down 4, takes the leadJacob Knuth runs 10 yards for a touchdownKansas State at Arizona State, week 8Q3, 7:59 · Kansas State 17, Arizona State 14Go-ahead score for Kansas State in the third quarterGo-ahead score for Kansas State in the third quarterJ.Knuth rush left for 10 yards gain to the ASU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Arizona State lost to Baylor after being 68% to win; the closest win was at Kansas, down to 28%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Arizona State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Arizona State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Arizona StateOwen Long leads Arizona State with 72 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+13 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Arizona State fields a struggling pass-first, methodical, ball-control offense behind a solid, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Arizona State reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 30%) and red-zone defense (top 35%); the crux lives in passing EPA, where Arizona State sits at the 21st percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Arizona State is worth +2.0 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom third of FBS, 16th percentile of 133 programs
62% at home, 40% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (29-18 home, 17-26 away). Interval ±3.8.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Arizona State has beaten the number by −4.7 more at home than away over 95 games. That is inside the ±6.4 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Mountain America Stadium seats 65,870 and has averaged 75% full (49,246, 31 games reported). Visitors face the 21st-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 638 miles since 2018. The map isn't translating, though — the split above still reads bottom third of fbs. 14% of the 2026 roster (14 of 103 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 52 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- UnderdogJordyn Tyson produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Deep threatChamon Metayer is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatDerek Eusebio is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Deep threatMalik McClain is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Cardae Mack and Kyson Brown split the carries (78/140 vs 62/140) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Cardae Mack gets the clock-killing work.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Reed Harris (WR) and AJ Ia (TE) split the targets (78/86 vs 8/86) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Arizona State actually scores
20th percentile quality, 83rd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Arizona State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 1st percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 12th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Arizona State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
38th percentile success on standard downs, 61st on passing downs — a 23-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Arizona State by half
1st-half offense ranks 52nd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 22nd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Arizona State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.05; 23rd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.01. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.68 raw vs. 0.06 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Arizona State’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Arizona State’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.3% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 253-play sample) — mid-pack, 29 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Arizona State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.7% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 216-play sample) — mid-pack, 33 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
45% recovery rate on their own fumbles — below the ~52% league baseline.
5 of 11 own fumbles recovered themselves; 4 of 8 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
9% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~18% league average, and due for more.
4 interceptions of 45 disrupted passes (41 deflected, 4 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
40 penalties committed, 27 drawn on opponents — ceding 131 yards of field position.
363 penalty yards committed vs. 232 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Arizona State
Most similar programs · Arizona StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Arizona State’s breakout has happened before — and 1 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Mountain America Stadium, Tempe, AZ
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 73°, between 65° and 81° in about 7 in 10 games (29 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 60°, and 8 in 10 ran between 42° and 74° (50 of 51 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.