CFB Zeitgeist Score
61
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 93rd percentile.
Clayton Smith
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
19 TACKLES · 4 SACKS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Arizona State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Defensive line · Arizona State
Returning around him
- 70% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 4 Arizona State players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: +3 net (24 in / 21 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Arizona State · Last season: 8-5 (AP #24) · Talent rank #33 · 2026 recruiting class #44
DL · ARIZONA STATE · BIG 12
Clayton Smith
- 4
- #10
- 6-5 | 255 lb
- Queen City, TX
Heisman Heat
#9555
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP DEFENSE AWARD
Nagurski
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 1 · 2-deepR03 · Backup
Backup. On the two-deep, pushing for snaps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#8 in market ▼ from #6 · 4 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 4-star | 0.9812 | No. 38 recruit | HighSchool | Oklahoma |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Oklahoma
Composite
0.9812
#38 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Clayton Smith
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Clayton Smith
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 8g
19Tackles
6.5Tackles for loss
4Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.8Tackles for loss
0.5Sacks
Projected (13g)
31Tackles
10.6Tackles for loss
6.5Sacks
To hit 80-tackle season (currently 19): needs 12.2/game over remaining 5.
To hit 100-tackle season (currently 19): needs 16.2/game over remaining 5.
To hit 6-sack season (currently 4): needs 0.4/game over remaining 5.
To hit 10-sack season (currently 4): needs 1.2/game over remaining 5.
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Clayton Smith is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Arizona State's defense, with 4.0 sacks, 6.5 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-disruption defender against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
19 58th
SOLO
11 60th
TFL
6.5 93rd
SACK
4.0 97th
QBH
2 66th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 8 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 38-19vs Northern Arizona | 6 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | 0 | Season-high 6 tackles |
| Wk 2 | L 20-24@ Mississippi State | 5 | 3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | — | 0 | 2 sacks |
| Wk 3 | W 34-15vs Texas State | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 5 | W 27-24vs TCU | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 9 | L 16-24vs Houston | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 12 | W 25-23vs West Virginia | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 13 | W 42-17@ Colorado | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 14 | L 7-23vs Arizona | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 19 | 11 | 6.5 | 4.0 | — | 0 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021Oklahoma10-2HC: Bob Stoops · Balanced
2022Oklahoma6-7HC: Brent Venables · Run-leaning, fast tempo
2023Arizona State3-9HC: Kenny Dillingham · Balanced
2025Arizona State8-5HC: Kenny Dillingham · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Arizona State | 19 | 11 | 6.5 | 4.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Arizona State | 21 | 9 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Oklahoma | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2021 | Oklahoma | 3 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 48 | 24 | 13.5 | 8.5 | 1 | -- | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 19 | #2072/4942 | 58th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 6.5 | #340/4972 | 93rd pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 4.0 | #169/4972 | 97th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | QB hurries | 2 | #647/1878 | 66th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 11 | #1855/4584 | 60th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Lombardi award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 8 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Road2g | 4.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins5g | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Losses3g | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-74g | 3.2 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+4g | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the DL cohort
61Solid starter
Elite: sacks (93rd). Strength: tackles for loss (87th). Concern: passes defended (17th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · DL · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Clayton SmithArizona StateMarcAnthony ParkerNavy· 62% simJackson KuwatchMiami (OH)· 60% simMaverick BaranowskiMinnesota· 60% sim
Sacks
Tackles for loss
QB hurries
Solo tackles
Tackles
Passes defended
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The 3-Tech Penetrator
Disruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield.
IDL
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Tyler Baron’s 2023 season.
Tyler Baron
90%match
NFL Rd 5
#2
Dante Anderson
84%
#3
Bradley Weaver
All-MAC
83%
#4
Micheal Clemons
NFL Rd 4
83%
#5
Max Llewellyn
NFL Rd 7
82%
Matches Tyler on
Weight
Height
Sack rate
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Michael Heldman's graduate season at Central Michigan (2025).
Michael Heldman
84%match
All-MAC
#2
Nasir Washington
81%
#3
Tramel Logan Jr.
79%
#4
Cameron Williams
78%
#5
Fadil Diggs
NFL Rd 7
76%
Matches Michael on
Class year
TFL rate
Weight
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Kenny Dillingham
Pass share
47.1%
429 pass / 482 run
Plays / game
70.1
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.8%
345 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
2 coaches2021
Herm Edwards
Arizona State
2022
Herm Edwards
Arizona State
2023era →
Kenny Dillingham
Arizona State
2025
Kenny Dillingham
Arizona State
Coaching transition mid-career: Herm Edwards → Kenny Dillingham. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownQueen City, TX
Height6'5"
Weight255 lb
Class4
PositionDL
Jersey10
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamArizona State
ConferenceBig 12
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Arizona State | DL4 | #9555 | #9180 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big 12 |
| 2023 | Arizona State | DL4 | #10284 | #10943 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Pac-12 |
| 2022 | Oklahoma | DL4 | #11158 | #11089 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big 12 |
| 2021 | Oklahoma | DL4 | #7016 | #6893 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big 12 |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Arizona State | Big 12 | DL | 4 | No. 10 | 6-5 | 255 lb | Queen City, TX |
| 2024 | Arizona State | Big 12 | DL | 4 | No. 10 | 6-5 | 255 lb | Queen City, TX |
| 2023 | Arizona State | Pac-12 | DL | 4 | No. 10 | 6-5 | 255 lb | Queen City, TX |
| 2022 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | DL | 4 | No. 10 | 6-5 | 255 lb | Queen City, TX |
| 2021 | Oklahoma | Big 12 | DL | 4 | No. 10 | 6-5 | 255 lb | Queen City, TX |