Kansas 25-24 Baylor (Oct 24, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Baylor · Kansas

Baylor4-324

Kansas3-425Final

Sat, Oct 24 · Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, Kan. · Crowd 32,000

Kansas beat Baylor 25-24.

We had Baylor favored. Kansas won.

Next: Baylor at UCF, Fri Oct 30 · 7:30 PM ET · Baylor underdog by 1.5

Next: Kansas at TCU, Sat Oct 31 · 3:30 PM ET · Kansas underdog by 6

Gonna get CTE from blocking kicks with his head

A Baylor fan

How it swung

The turning point: Marshall intercepted by Jordan at the KU42 and returned for a TD, Baylor goes ahead 14-7 (Q3, 13:29). Kansas went from 60% to 33% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Kansas a 33% chance, and the closing betting line (Kansas was a 1.5-point favorite) put it at 55%.

Kansas came back from 11 down, at one point just a 17% chance in the third quarter.

Baylor led by 11, was as high as 83% in the third quarter, and still lost.

Pick-six

Baylor · Q3 13:29Blocked field goalQ4 0:18

FinalKansas 25-24 BaylorKansas wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The three plays that swung it

1Q3 13:29InterceptionMarshall intercepted by Jordan at the KU42 and returned for a TD, Baylor goes ahead 14-7Kansas 60% → 33% (−27)
2Q4 1:13Marshall 15-yd TD run, Kansas goes ahead 25-24Kansas 41% → 68% (+27)
3Q4 0:23Knighten 0-yd runKansas 50% → 76% (+26)

The three plays that swung it

1Q3 13:29InterceptionMarshall intercepted by Jordan at the KU42 and returned for a TD, Baylor goes ahead 14-7Baylor 40% → 67% (+27)
2Q4 1:13Marshall 15-yd TD run, Kansas goes ahead 25-24Baylor 59% → 32% (−27)
3Q4 0:23Knighten 0-yd runBaylor 50% → 24% (−26)

If Aranda isn't fired today this program needs to be given the death penalty

Q4 0:29 · A Baylor fan · r/CFB game thread

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 7:41Baylor fans rip Lagway for taking sack on fourth down instead of runningWhen will Aranda realize Lagway can't make good choices.r/CFB game thread
Q2 4:53Kansas fans rage as Marshall overthrows wide open receiver on fourth downAnd then Marshall actually puts one on target and they forget how to catch, kill mer/CFB game threadThat dude in the crowd shaking his head after a wide open miss by Marshall is all of us. Pain.r/CFB game thread
Q4 4:58Baylor fans celebrate a short fourth down stop by the defenseShort!r/CFB game threadNgl I don’t even dislike Kansas. This is just 2 miserable fanbases that hate our own teams more than any opponentr/CFB game thread
Q4 2:08Kansas scores to take the lead as Baylor fans demand Dave Aranda's firingI don’t want to lose, obviously, but I’ll take it if it means they finally fire Dave.r/CFB game threadI can only have so many “at least this means Dave will get fired” games before it’s just sad.r/CFB game thread
Q4 0:29Baylor fans rip Dave Aranda for calling timeouts after Kansas blocks the field goalDave is calling timeouts just trying to soak in the feeling of being a coach for a few more seconds.r/CFB game thread

Kansas’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Kansas -1.5), at 63% for Kansas (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Kansas or Baylor flair (314 and 327); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Kansas’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Kansas scored on 5 of its 13 drives; Baylor on 3 of its 12.

Kansas’s drives are teal, Baylor’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Baylor’s side

Baylor’s best moment: Marshall intercepted by Jordan at the KU42 and returned for a TD, Baylor goes ahead 14-7 (Q3 13:29). It lifted Baylor’s win chance by 27 points.

How Baylor fans took it: “If Aranda isn't fired today this program needs to be given the death penalty” r/CFB game thread

When fans got loud

Roaring

The final stretch is when fans got loud.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was roaring; the crowd was steady.

Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.

“This kick is getting block”

A Baylor fan

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Baylor fans

aranda“I’m about to start blaming every team that loses to Baylor for Aranda still being employed. It’s yalls fault at this point.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, ball, lose, run.

Too close to call on 63% of plays.

What it cost

Baylor’s chance to make the playoff fell from 2% to 1%.

Make the playoff

Baylor · lost2% → ▼1%

Kansas · won0% → 0%

Win the conference

Baylor · lost2% → ▼1%

Kansas · won0% → 0%

Before the game (October 23, 2026) → after this result alone, in our model. Other games that weekend move it too, so the team page may differ.

Baylor plays at UCF on Fri Oct 30 with a 1% chance to make the playoff.

Box score

Kansas 25, Baylor 24

Baylor covered +1.5 by 0.5. The total, 49, stayed under 54.5.

Team totals	Baylor	Kansas
Total yards	358	421
Passing	20 of 31, 236 yds	17 of 30, 212 yds
Rushing	35 for 122 yds	56 for 209 yds
First downs	16	24
Third down	5 of 15	5 of 19
Fourth down	1 of 3	5 of 8
Turnovers	1	2
Penalties	12 for 116 yds	3 for 30 yds
Time of possession	23:19	36:41

Baylor leaders

Passing D.J. Lagway 20 of 31, 236 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing D.J. Lagway 11 for 47 yds; Michael Turner 9 for 40 yds
Receiving Gavin Freeman 9 for 123 yds; Jayden McGowan 4 for 31 yds, 1 TD

Kansas leaders

Passing Isaiah Marshall 17 of 29, 212 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Dylan Edwards 30 for 156 yds; Isaiah Marshall 15 for 31 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Nik McMillan 2 for 66 yds, 1 TD; Carson Bruhn 5 for 63 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

71° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 11 mph from the south, mostly along the field, gusts to 22

The usual here around this date is 55°, with about 7 in 10 games between 45° and 66°.

October game-day temperatures at Memorial Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 13:29 left1:53 p.m.

Baylor 14, Kansas 7 · Kansas 33% to win

no rain · wind 12 mph from the south, mostly along the field, gusts to 21 · 78°

Marshall intercepted by Jordan at the KU42 and returned for a TD, Baylor goes ahead 14-7

Measured at Lawrence airport, 3.6 miles away. Wind and rain are airport readings near the stadium, not on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Baylor · 4-2

Rated 33rd in our preseason ratings, 31st now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 36-point win over Arizona State as a 3.5-point underdog.

L 6-17 vs TCU No. 35 of 668 teams

lost by 11 as a 3.5-point favorite

W 55-19 @ Arizona State No. 65 of 668 teams

won by 36 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 23-13 vs Colorado No. 119 of 668 teams

won by 10 as an 8.5-point favorite

W 36-19 vs Louisiana Tech No. 91 of 668 teams

won by 17 as a 20.5-point favorite

W 44-3 vs Prairie View A&M No. 108 of 668 teams

won by 41 as a 37.5-point favorite

L 16-17 @ Auburn No. 70 of 668 teams

lost by 1 as a 6.5-point underdog

Last three games

Kansas · 2-4

Rated 87th in our preseason ratings, 58th now, up 29 spots.

1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 24-35 @ Kansas State No. 42 of 668 teams

lost by 11 as a 3-point underdog

L 24-41 @ UtahTop 25 No. 16 of 668 teams

lost by 17 as a 15.5-point underdog

W 55-0 vs Middle Tennessee No. 151 of 668 teams

won by 55 as a 21.5-point favorite

L 17-24 vs Arizona State No. 52 of 668 teams

lost by 7 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 21-38 vs MissouriTop 25 No. 39 of 668 teams

lost by 17 as a 4-point underdog

W 51-6 vs Long Island University No. 164 of 668 teams

won by 45 as a 44.5-point favorite

Week by week

Kansas

Wk 2Lvs Missouri21-38
Wk 3Lvs Arizona State17-24
Wk 5Wvs Middle Tennessee55-0
Wk 6Lat Utah24-41
Wk 7Lat Kansas State24-35

Baylor

Wk 2Wvs Prairie View A&M44-3
Wk 3Wvs Louisiana Tech36-19
Wk 4Wvs Colorado23-13
Wk 5Wat Arizona State55-19
Wk 7Lvs TCU6-17

Power rating by week

Baylor is rated 4.2 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Baylor’s success rate against Kansas, 73 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Baylor’s explosive plays against Kansas’s defense
Baylor offense, 92nd percentile · Kansas defense, 27th
Baylor’s success rate against Kansas’s defense
Baylor offense, 11th percentile · Kansas defense, 84th
Kansas’s passing EPA against Baylor’s defense
Kansas offense, 38th percentile · Baylor defense, 92nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

BaylorKansas

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

Baylor leads the series 19-4

23 meetings since 1971 · Baylor has won the last 14

2024Baylor 45-17
2022Baylor 35-23
2021Baylor 45-7
2020Baylor 47-14
2019Baylor 61-6

Each line is Kansas’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Baylor fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (8th percentile among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Kansas favored by 1.5 · Total 54.5

How games like this usually go

Kansas by 1.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 286 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3 points toward Kansas.

The books’ cut: 4.6%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Kansas is worth +3.3 points (±4.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 32nd percentile.

39% at home, 22% on the road against FBS opponents (16-25 home, 10-36 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -1.0 at home vs. away over 93 games — inside the ±6.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 522 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.

Kansas16th0-3
Baylor6th2-1

Full Big 12 standings

Kansas beats Baylor 25-24