Iowa State at Iowa
Fan take
Iowa State fans
This is Cy-Hawk — see the full head-to-head history →
How they got here
Last three games · 2025 season
Iowa State · 8-4
Picked #169 in the preseason · now #184 — worse than expected.
Three straight wins, capped by a 3-point win over TCU as a 7.5-point underdog.
W 20–13 @ Oklahoma State #162 of 668
won by 7 as a 14-point favorite
W 38–14 vs Kansas #74 of 668
won by 24 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 20–17 @ TCUTop 25 #36 of 668
won by 3 as a 7.5-point underdog
L 19–24 vs Arizona StateTop 25 #33 of 668
lost by 5 as a 7.5-point favorite
L 27–41 vs BYUTop 25 #22 of 668
lost by 14 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 17–24 @ Colorado #76 of 668
lost by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite
L 30–38 @ CincinnatiTop 25 #48 of 668
lost by 8 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 39–14 vs ArizonaTop 25 #67 of 668
won by 25 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 24–16 @ Arkansas State #138 of 668
won by 8 as a 20.5-point favorite
W 16–13 vs IowaTop 25 #31 of 668
won by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 55–7 vs South Dakota #96 of 668
won by 48 as a 13.5-point favorite
W 24–21 @ Kansas StateTop 25 #21 of 668
won by 3 as a 3-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Iowa · 9-4
Picked #13 in the preseason · now #19 — about right.
Three straight wins, capped by a 7-point win over Vanderbilt as a 3-point underdog.
W 34–27 @ VanderbiltTop 25 #19 of 668
won by 7 as a 3-point underdog
W 40–16 @ NebraskaTop 25 #81 of 668
won by 24 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 20–17 vs Michigan State #80 of 668
won by 3 as a 17.5-point favorite
L 21–26 @ USCTop 25 #16 of 668
lost by 5 as a 6.5-point underdog
L 16–18 vs OregonTop 25 #3 of 668
lost by 2 as a 4.5-point underdog
W 41–3 vs Minnesota #58 of 668
won by 38 as a 7-point favorite
W 25–24 vs Penn StateTop 25 #10 of 668
won by 1 as a 3-point favorite
W 37–0 @ Wisconsin #81 of 668
won by 37 as a 4.5-point favorite
L 15–20 vs IndianaTop 25 #9 of 668
lost by 5 as a 9.5-point underdog
W 38–28 @ Rutgers #57 of 668
won by 10 as a 2-point favorite
W 47–7 vs Massachusetts #157 of 668
won by 40 as a 35.5-point favorite
L 13–16 @ Iowa StateTop 25 #38 of 668
lost by 3 as a 3.5-point underdog
W 34–7 vs UAlbany #127 of 668
won by 27 as a 39.5-point favorite
What’s at stake
Iowa State
- Iowa State has dropped 1 straight in Cy-Hawk — a chance to snap the skid.
Iowa
- Iowa is ranked #21, right on the edge of the Top 25.
- Iowa has won 1 straight in Cy-Hawk — a chance to extend it.
The series
Iowa leads the series 48-23
71 meetings since 1895 · Iowa won the last meeting
- 2026Iowa 16–13
- 2025Iowa State 16–13
- 2024Iowa State 20–19
- 2023Iowa 20–13
- 2022Iowa State 10–7
Best players
Iowa State
- Sullivan Schlimgen (LB) · 18 tackles
- Carson Willich (LB) · 13 tackles
- Drew Surges (S) · 10 tackles
Iowa
- Cam Buffington (LB) · 21 tackles
- Kamari Moulton (RB) · 240 rushing yards
- Tony Diaz (WR) · 179 receiving yards
The line, and the room
Iowa fans are feeling it more than most fanbases this week (72nd percentile) — the mood matches the numbers.
- Model · 95%
- Market · 87%
- Iowa fans · 72nd
- Iowa State fans · 30th
Home −14 · O/U 42.5
Conditions
77°F · 9 mph wind · Clear
Iowa is worth +2.9 points (±3.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 28th percentile.
76% at home, 63% on the road against FBS opponents (39–12 home, 24–14 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.0 at home vs. away over 72 games — inside the ±6.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 110 miles to get here.
Iowa State 13 – Iowa 16
Called it — picked Iowa to win.
The thread's loudest minute was 00:33 — 35 comments, 7.0× its usual pace.
comments / minute
Comments per minute in the r/CFB game thread, 22:30–00:36 UTC (663 collected). The chart ends where the collected thread ends.
- BoxThe line
Cam Buffington (Iowa): 15 tackles
Top 1% tackles game since 2021.
Win-probability model: CollegeFootballData.
Recent games
Iowa
- Wk 1Wvs Northern Illinois40-0
Iowa State
- Wk 1Wvs Southeast Missouri State38-10
Trajectory
Iowa won 16-13, as picked pregame.