Next game: at Houston
Houston’s best edge on Cincinnati is passing
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Cincinnati offense against Houston defense
Houston offense against Cincinnati defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Surgeon · +0.33 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 143 / 213 | 67.1 | 1773 #45 FBS | 8.3 | 13 #41 FBS | 3 | 154.4 | 61 | 51.6 | 7.9 | 7.0 | |
Yards by week → Pocket surgeonHigh-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation. Impact starter — 213 pass attempts and 82 carries in 8 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB French picks you apart underneath and protects the ball. Raynor is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Completion %67.7% 77th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts INT rate1.4% 77th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View JC French's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.67 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 79 | 752 #19 FBS | 9.5 | 10 #12 FBS | 58 | 9.1 | 27.3 | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Starter — 79 carries and 17 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Tabb wins in space out of the backfield. Flora is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Receiving share17.7% 90th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry9.9 100th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cole Tabb's full player page | ||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.17 EPA/play | 6 | 7 | 78 | 485 | 6.2 | 2 | 53 | 18.7 | 17.3 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. Starter — 78 carries and 7 catches in 7 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Payne hits the crease and outruns the angle. Flora is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Yards / carry6.4 83th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Gi'Bran Payne's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.01 EPA/play | 7 | 7 | 26 | 168 | 6.5 | 1 | 40 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.68 EPA/play | 11 | 7 | 34 | 461 | 13.6 | 4 #70 FBS | 64 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 34 catches in 7 games. More catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View JaVonnie Gibson's full player page | ||||||||
| +1.29 EPA/play | 9 | 8 | 10 | 334 | 33.4 | 2 | 69 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.38 EPA/play | — | 8 | 27 | 259 | 9.6 | 1 | 51 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 27 catches and 1 carry in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Isaiah Johnson's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.94 EPA/play | 2 | 7 | 14 | 185 | 13.2 | 1 | 38 | |
Yards by week → Deep threat· Money-downStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. lives on the sticks and moves the chains This week's matchup — WR Fenner beats you over the top. Jackson is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception18.9 94th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.9 93th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Larenzo Fenner's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.32 EPA/play | 87 | 6 | 11 | 110 | 10 | 0 | 29 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Gavin Grover's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.62 EPA/play | 85 | 5 | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 2 | 17 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.12 EPA/play | 18 | 5 | 5 | 39 | 7.8 | 0 | 10 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 4 | 7 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 18 tackles in 7 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Marquaze Parker's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 95 | 5 | 15 | 4 | 4.5 | 3 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate30.0% 91th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Josh Hough's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 99 | 6 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jonathan Rulo's full player page | |||||||
| 11 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 26 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 3 | 8 | 62 | 34 | 28 | 3 | 1.5 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 62 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume62 92th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate4.8% bottom 27th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Antwan Peek Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 22 | 8 | 60 | 30 | 30 | 4.5 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 60 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Jonathan Thompson's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 31 | 8 | 54 | 18 | 36 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 54 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume54 82th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Simeon Coleman's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 9 | 8 | 41 | 11 | 30 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 41 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume41 57th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate2.4% bottom 17th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Damaine Wilson's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 10 | 8 | 28 | 18 | 10 | 7.5 #73 FBS | 3.5 | 1 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Starter — 28 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate26.8% 76th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Patrick Bauer's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 17 | 7 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 18 tackles in 7 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Brian Simms III's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 5 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate6.2% 83th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume16 bottom 11th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Marqavious Saboor's full player page | |||||||||
| 12 | 6 | 14 | 2 | 12 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Power Rusher | 91 | 6 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Power rusherBull-rushes through contact, winning with size and length at the point of attack. 8 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.1% 64th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Drew Logan's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 16 | 7 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jaylon White-McClain's full player page | |||||||||
| 54 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 44 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 18 | 8 | 58 | 1 | 0 | 2.5 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — 58 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume58 98th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jasper Beeler's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | — | 8 | 45 | 6 #43 FBS | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Perimeter tackler· Takeaway threatTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Starter — 45 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume45 100th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jacob Finley's full player page | |||||||
| Rover | 2 | 8 | 42 | 4 | 3 #16 FBS | 1.5 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Starter — 42 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 33 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.5% 59th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Mark Cannon Jr.'s full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 8 | 8 | 25 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Kenny Worthy III's full player page | |||||||
| 30 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 99 | 8 | 6/9 | 66.7 | 33/33 | 51 | 54 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cannon | 31 | 8 | 27 | 1236 | 45.8 | 70 | 11 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.01 EPA/play | 7 | 7 | 9 | 184 | 20.4 | 0 | 32 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.28 EPA/play | 8 | 3 | 6 | 43 | 7.2 | 0 | 12 |
| +1.29 EPA/play | 9 | 8 | 3 | 34 | 11.3 | 0 | 36 |
Biggest plays from Cincinnati’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Cincinnati’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 1:15 · Kansas State down 11Rodney Fields Jr. runs 2 yards for a touchdownKansas State at Cincinnati, week 4Q4, 1:15 · Kansas State 26, Cincinnati 31▼21%Kansas State’s chance to win, 29% to 8%▼21%Kansas State’s chance to win, 29% to 8%R.Fields Jr. rush middle for 2 yards gain to the CIN00 touchdown A.Johnson pass attempt failed▶Watch from this play
Q4, 3:44 · West Virginia down 7, ties itMichael Hawkins Jr. finds Cam Cook for a 40-yard touchdownCincinnati at West Virginia, week 7Q4, 3:44 · West Virginia 42, Cincinnati 423:44Game-tying touchdown for West Virginia with 3:44 left3:44Game-tying touchdown for West Virginia with 3:44 leftGame-tying touchdown for West Virginia with 3:44 leftM.Hawkins Jr. pass complete short left to C.Cook caught at CIN44, for 40 yards to the CIN00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Big 12 Conference- Q2, 4:55 · Cincinnati breaks the tieJC French finds Isaiah Johnson for a 51-yard touchdownCincinnati at West Virginia, week 7Q2, 4:55 · Cincinnati 14, West Virginia 75151-yard touchdown pass5151-yard touchdown pass51-yard touchdown passJ.French IV pass complete short right to I.Johnson caught at CIN49, for 51 yards to the WVU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbounds". CALL UPHELD, kick good▶Watch from this play Big 12 Conference
Q3, 8:49 · Texas Tech down 15Peyton Morgan takes an interception 53 yards for a pick-sixTexas Tech at Cincinnati, week 8Q3, 8:49 · Texas Tech 15, Cincinnati 2453Pick-six53Pick-sixPick-sixPeyton Morgan 53 yd Interception Return (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 6:36 · Cincinnati down 10JC French finds Malachi Henry for a 39-yard touchdownKansas State at Cincinnati, week 4Q2, 6:36 · Cincinnati 7, Kansas State 1039Malachi Henry's fifth touch of the season is a 39-yard touchdown39Malachi Henry's fifth touch of the season is a 39-yard touchdownMalachi Henry's fifth touch of the season is a 39-yard touchdownJ.French IV pass complete deep right to M.Henry caught at KSU00, for 39 yards to the KSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 10:55 · Cincinnati down 7, ties itCole Tabb runs 5 yards for a touchdownKansas State at Cincinnati, week 4Q3, 10:55 · Cincinnati 17, Kansas State 17Cincinnati tied the game in the third quarterCincinnati tied the game in the third quarterC.Tabb rush left for 5 yards gain to the KSU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Cincinnati lost at West Virginia after being 91% to win; the closest win was against Miami (OH), down to 1%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Cincinnati during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Cincinnati
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · CincinnatiAntwan Peek Jr. leads Cincinnati with 62 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+18 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Cincinnati fields an elite explosive, big-play offense behind a porous defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Cincinnati reads strongest in explosive plays (top 2%) and rushing EPA (top 10%); the crux lives in passing EPA allowed, where Cincinnati sits at the 10th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Cincinnati is worth +5.4 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 73rd percentile of 133 programs
75% at home, 58% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (38-13 home, 25-18 away). Interval ±3.9.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Cincinnati has beaten the number by +3.6 more at home than away over 99 games. That is inside the ±5.9 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Nippert Stadium seats 40,000 and has averaged 92% full (36,604, 32 games reported). Visitors face the 19th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 651 miles since 2018. Some of what the band above measures is the map, not the crowd. 21% of the 2026 roster (23 of 107 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 58 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- UnderdogJeff Caldwell produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Garbage timeTawee Walker does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score, and he's also efficient in competitive snaps, the production isn't just garbage-time padding.
- Deep threatCaleb Goodie is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Deep threatJeff Caldwell is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
JaVonnie Gibson (WR) and Gavin Grover (TE) split the targets (45/60 vs 15/60) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Cincinnati actually scores
88th percentile quality, 15th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Cincinnati’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 90th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 97th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Cincinnati hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
68th percentile success on standard downs, 83rd on passing downs — a 15-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Cincinnati by half
1st-half offense ranks 85th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 97th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Cincinnati’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.24; 74th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.07. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.41 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Cincinnati’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (69.7% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 197-play sample) — mid-pack, 113 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Cincinnati’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (66.8% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 214-play sample) — mid-pack, 81 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
62% recovery rate on their own fumbles — well above the ~52% league baseline.
5 of 8 own fumbles recovered themselves; 6 of 14 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
19% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~18% league average.
6 interceptions of 32 disrupted passes (26 deflected, 6 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
55 penalties committed, 54 drawn on opponents — ceding 78 yards of field position.
478 penalty yards committed vs. 400 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Cincinnati
Most similar programs · CincinnatiReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Cincinnati’s slide has precedent — and 3 of the 4 closest kept falling.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Usual during the game around Nov 21: 45°, between 34° and 56° in about 7 in 10 games (26 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 65°, and 8 in 10 ran between 46° and 80° (47 of 52 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.