CFB Zeitgeist Score
83
All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 82nd percentile.
Joe Royer
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
416 REC YDS · 29 REC · 4 REC TD
Where He Ended Up · NFL
Cleveland2026 NFL rookie season
#170Rd 5 · Pick 30
Cleveland2026 NFL rookie season
TE · CINCINNATI · BIG 12
Joe Royer
- 4
- #11
- 6-5 | 250 lb
- Cincinnati, OH
Heisman Heat
#460
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP TE AWARD
Mackey
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
5 seasons on the ladder
2021
Ohio State · TE
—
2022
Ohio State · TE
—
2023
Ohio State · TE
—
★
2024
Cincinnati · TE
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
2025
Cincinnati · TE
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
NFL Draft 2026 · Rd 5, Pick 30 · #170 overall · Cleveland
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2021–2025+4522%
Up 4522% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
R5 · #170
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 4-star | 0.8904 | No. 406 recruit | HighSchool | Ohio State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in receiving yards (416).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Ohio State
Composite
0.8904
#406 national
NFL Draft
2026 · Rd 5, Pick 30
#170 overall · Cleveland
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Joe Royer
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Joe Royer
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Yards per reception
14.3
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #136 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 74th
Why it matters
#136 of 531 All FBS WRs at 14.3 yards per reception (29 catches).
Vs cohort
This player 14.3 (74th)
MODERATE · n=29 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving TDs#161 / 531
- Receiving yards (total)#287 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 2 vs Bowling Green — 104 ypr
Result W 34-20
The week the volume broke through — put up 104 yds vs Bowling Green.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 12g
416Rec yards
29Receptions
4Rec TDs
Per game
34.7Rec yards
2Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
450.7Rec yards
31Receptions
4Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 416): needs 284/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 416): needs 584/game over remaining 1.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 29): needs 31/game over remaining 1.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 29): needs 51/game over remaining 1.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 4): needs 4/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 4): needs 6/game over remaining 1.
Why the honors trail matters
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Joe Royer already has 2 loaded recognition items, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
TE season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Target magnet | Big-play receiver against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
29 88th
YDS
416 93rd
YPR
14.3 87th
TD
4 95th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 17-20vs Nebraska | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 2 | W 34-20vs Bowling Green | 2 | 104 | 52.0 | 0 | 73 | Season-high 104 yds |
| Wk 3 | W 70-0vs Northwestern State | 3 | 23 | 7.7 | 2 | 21 | 2 TD catches |
| Wk 5 | W 37-34@ Kansas | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 | 20 | |
| Wk 6 | W 38-30vs Iowa State | 4 | 20 | 5.0 | 1 | 12 | |
| Wk 7 | W 20-11vs UCF | 2 | 83 | 41.5 | 0 | 67 | |
| Wk 8 | W 49-17@ Oklahoma State | 5 | 63 | 12.6 | 1 | 27 | |
| Wk 9 | W 41-20vs Baylor | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 10 | L 14-45@ Utah | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 12 | L 24-30vs Arizona | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 13 | L 14-26vs BYU | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 14 | L 23-45@ TCU | 3 | 45 | 15.0 | 0 | 26 | |
| Total | 29 | 416 | 15.5 | 4 | 73 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021Ohio State10-2HC: Ryan Day · Balanced, fast tempo
2022Ohio State11-2HC: Ryan Day · Balanced
2023Ohio State11-2HC: Ryan Day · Balanced
2024Cincinnati5-7HC: Scott Satterfield · Balanced
2025Cincinnati7-6HC: Scott Satterfield · Balanced, slow tempo
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Cincinnati | 29 | 416 | 14.3 | 4 | -- |
| 2024 | Cincinnati | 51 | 532 | 10.4 | 3 | -- |
| 2023 | Ohio State | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 | -- |
| 2022 | Ohio State | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 0 | -- |
| 2021 | Ohio State | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 5 loaded seasons | 84 | 972 | 11.6 | 7 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The tight end's share of the passing offense, which helps distinguish a featured receiving tight end from a secondary option.
A blended usage view that shows how often the offense flows through the tight end compared with other same-level peers.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 29 | #58/475 | 88th pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 416 | #32/475 | 93rd pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 4 | #27/475 | 95th pct | Scoringvs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 14.3 | #62/475 | 87th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Pass share | 11.0% | #70/468 | 85th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 73 | #6/475 | 99th pct | Metricvs FBS TE |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 6.8% | #86/468 | 82nd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 5.9% | #68/468 | 86th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 5.7% | #48/468 | 90th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS TE |
| Usage | Role share | 5.5% | #66/468 | 86th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS TE |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 5.2% | #72/468 | 85th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 5.2% | #138/468 | 71st pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS TE |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #58/468 | 88th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS TE |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Mackey award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home8g | 2.2 | 34.2 | 17.1 | 0.4 |
| Road4g | 2.8 | 35.5 | 12.4 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins7g | 2.7 | 47.0 | 20.4 | 0.6 |
| Losses5g | 2.0 | 17.4 | 8.6 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 2.7 | 44.2 | 20.3 | 0.5 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 2.2 | 25.2 | 10.7 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the TE cohort
83All-Conference
Elite: long catch (96th). Strength: yards / catch (91st).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · TE · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Joe RoyerCincinnatiMatthew HibnerSMU· 97% simLake McReeUSC· 96% simTre Williams IIINorth Texas· 91% sim
Long catch
Yards / catch
Rec yards
Rec TDs
Receptions
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Complete TE
Dual-threat: blocks when needed, catches when needed. Coveted on both sides.
TE
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Terrance Ferguson’s 2022 season.
Terrance Ferguson
76%match
NFL Rd 2 · Pk 14
#2
Garrett Oakley
76%
#3
Terrance Ferguson
NFL Rd 2 · Pk 14
76%
#4
Gavin Bartholomew
NFL Rd 6
76%
#5
Giles Amos
71%
Matches Terrance on
Height
Weight
Total EPA (college ability)
Differs from Terrance on
Yards / reception (lower)
Recruiting rating (lower)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Nate Boerkircher's graduate season at Texas A&M (2025).
Nate Boerkircher
80%match
NFL Rd 2 · Pk 24
#2
Chase Curtis
70%
#3
Lake McRee
All-Big Ten
64%
#4
Rivaldo Fairweather
60%
#5
Tanner Arkin
All-Mountain West
59%
Matches Nate on
TD rate
Total EPA (college ability)
Height
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Scott Satterfield
Pass share
47.8%
363 pass / 396 run
Plays / game
58.4
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
2.6%
266 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced, slow tempo.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
2 coaches2021
Luke Fickell
Cincinnati
2022
Luke Fickell
Cincinnati
2023era →
Scott Satterfield
Cincinnati
2024
Scott Satterfield
Cincinnati
2025
Scott Satterfield
Cincinnati
Coaching transition mid-career: Luke Fickell → Scott Satterfield. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownCincinnati, OH
Height6'5"
Weight250 lb
Class4
PositionTE
Jersey11
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamCincinnati
ConferenceBig 12
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-Big 12
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
2 all-conference honors
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-Big 12 | all_conference | Cincinnati | Big 12 | TE |
| 2024 | All-Big 12 | all_conference | Big 12 | TE |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Cincinnati | TE4 | #460 | #516 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big 12 |
| 2023 | Ohio State | TE4 | #1962 | #1405 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2022 | Ohio State | TE4 | #1788 | #1228 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2021 | Ohio State | TE4 | #1835 | #1410 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big Ten |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Cincinnati | Big 12 | TE | 4 | No. 11 | 6-5 | 250 lb | Cincinnati, OH |
| 2024 | Cincinnati | Big 12 | TE | 4 | No. 11 | 6-5 | 250 lb | Cincinnati, OH |
| 2023 | Ohio State | Big Ten | TE | 4 | No. 11 | 6-5 | 250 lb | Cincinnati, OH |
| 2022 | Ohio State | Big Ten | TE | 4 | No. 11 | 6-5 | 250 lb | Cincinnati, OH |
| 2021 | Ohio State | Big Ten | TE | 4 | No. 11 | 6-5 | 250 lb | Cincinnati, OH |