CFB Zeitgeist Score
11
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by yards / catch at the 33rd percentile.
Dalton Carnes
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
80 REC YDS · 7 REC · 0 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to North Texas for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Wide receiver · North Texas
Returning around him
- 56% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- Transfer portal: +11 net (49 in / 38 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
North Texas · Last season: 12-2 (AP #23) · Talent rank #96 · 2026 recruiting class #112
WR · NORTH TEXAS · AMERICAN ATHLETIC
Dalton Carnes
- 3
- #11
- 5-9 | 174 lb
- College Station, TX
Heisman Heat
#2557
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 1 · 2-deepR03 · Backup
Backup. On the two-deep, pushing for snaps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2023–2025-70%
Sharp dropoff (-70%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Houston -> North Texas | 3-star | 0.8200 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Dalton Carnes
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Dalton Carnes
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 9g
80Rec yards
7Receptions
0Rec TDs
Per game
8.9Rec yards
1Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
115.6Rec yards
10Receptions
0Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 80): needs 155/game over remaining 4.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 80): needs 230/game over remaining 4.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 7): needs 13.2/game over remaining 4.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 7): needs 18.2/game over remaining 4.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 2/game over remaining 4.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 2.5/game over remaining 4.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Dalton Carnes's story is about how role and output meet each other. For North Texas, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Receiving weapon against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
7 40th
YDS
80 37th
YPR
11.4 46th
TD
0 45th
Returns
KR YDS
18 22nd
KR AVG
18.0 41st
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 9 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 51-0vs Lamar | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 3 | W 59-10vs Washington State | 2 | 18 | 9.0 | 0 | 13 | |
| Wk 5 | W 36-22vs South Alabama | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 7 | L 36-63vs South Florida | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 8 | W 55-17vs UTSA | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 | 4 | |
| Wk 9 | W 54-20@ Charlotte | 2 | 41 | 20.5 | 0 | 21 | Season-high 41 yds |
| Wk 10 | W 31-17vs Navy | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 12 | W 53-24@ UAB | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Bowl | W 49-47@ San Diego State | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Total | 7 | 80 | 10.1 | 0 | 21 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Houston4-8HC: Dana Holgorsen · Balanced
2025North Texas12-2HC: Eric Morris · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | North Texas | 7 | 80 | 11.4 | 0 | -- |
| 2023 | Houston | 20 | 263 | 13.2 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 27 | 343 | 12.7 | 1 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | North Texas | -- | -- | 18 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Houston | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | -- | -- | 18 | -- | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 7 | #667/1110 | 40th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 80 | #696/1107 | 37th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #615/1111 | 45th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 11.4 | #597/1106 | 46th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Returns | Kick return yards | 18 | #187/238 | 22nd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 4.7% | #888/1137 | 22nd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 21 | #741/1105 | 33rd pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Returns | Kick return avg | 18.0 | #141/236 | 41st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Returns | Kick returns | 1 | #169/243 | 31st pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 3.8% | #580/1137 | 49th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 2.9% | #830/1137 | 27th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 2.3% | #900/1137 | 21st pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 2.3% | #807/1137 | 29th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 2.2% | #961/1137 | 16th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 0.0% | #993/1137 | 13th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #391/1137 | 66th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #131/302 | 57th pct | Turnoversvs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 9 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 0.8 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 0.0 |
| Road3g | 0.7 | 13.7 | 20.5 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins8g | 0.9 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 0.0 |
| Losses1g | — | — | — | — |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 0.8 | 7.0 | 8.7 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+4g | 0.8 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
11Below cohort
Concern: receptions (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Dalton CarnesNorth TexasMichael Jackson IIIPurdue· 50% simJacquon GibsonMassachusetts· 42% simTrent WalkerOregon State· 42% sim
Fumbles lost
Yards / catch
Rec TDs
Long catch
Rec yards
Receptions
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Eric Morris
Pass share
48.5%
475 pass / 504 run
Plays / game
69.9
14 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
5.9%
321 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
1 coach2023
Eric Morris
North Texas
2025
Eric Morris
North Texas
Played his entire career under Eric Morris.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownCollege Station, TX
Height5'9"
Weight174 lb
Class3
PositionWR
Jersey11
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamNorth Texas
ConferenceAmerican Athletic
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | North Texas | WR3 | #2557 | #2312 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | American Athletic |
| 2023 | Houston | WR3 | #1903 | #2510 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Big 12 |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | North Texas | American Athletic | WR | 3 | No. 11 | 5-9 | 174 lb | College Station, TX |
| 2024 | North Texas | American Athletic | WR | 3 | No. 11 | 5-9 | 174 lb | College Station, TX |
| 2023 | Houston | Big 12 | WR | 3 | No. 11 | 5-9 | 174 lb | College Station, TX |