UNLV

1-2

Mountain West · Dan Mullen, year 2 (11-6) · Allegiant Stadium · 65,000 · 31,384 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#96 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #62 (+2.3) · FPI #87
The marketno line yetat Akron · our model 26% UNLV · a number, not a pick

LastL 6–44 at North Texas · Sat Sep 12 · Denver Harris 2 TFL, 7 tackles

Nextat Akron · Sat Sep 26 · time TBA · InfoCision Stadium · first meeting on record · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
16.0
Pts allowed/game
25.7
Total yards/gm#13 / 138 · 91st pct
375.0
Rush yards/gm#15 / 138 · 89th pct
171.7
Pass yards/gm#33 / 138 · 76th pct
203.3
Yards allowed/gm#135 / 138 · 3rd pct
385.3
Rush yds allowed/gm#131 / 138 · 5th pct
165.3
SacksT-#11 / 138 · 89th pct
7
InterceptionsT-#63 / 115 · 23rd pct
1
3rd-down conv#93 / 138 · 33rd pct
36.2%
All 95 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
1125375.0/gm5.31/play#13 / 138 · 91st pct#9 / 70 · 88th pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
1156385.3/gm5.69/play#135 / 138 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
515171.7/gm2.43/play#15 / 138 · 89th pct#10 / 70 · 86th pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
496165.3/gm2.44/play#131 / 138 · 5th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
12341.0/gm#2 / 138 · 99th pct#1 / 70 · 99th pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10535.0/gm#134 / 138 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
41.3/gmT-#51 / 138 · 54th pctT-#34 / 70 · 44th pctT-#5 / 10 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
41.3/gmT-#107 / 138 · 18th pctT-#62 / 70 · 8th pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
610203.3/gm2.88/play#33 / 138 · 76th pct#19 / 70 · 74th pct#4 / 10 · 65th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
660220.0/gm3.25/play#129 / 138 · 7th pct#68 / 70 · 4th pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
8929.7/gm#11 / 138 · 92nd pct#4 / 70 · 95th pct#3 / 10 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
9832.7/gm#135 / 138 · 3rd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
5217.3/gmT-#21 / 138 · 84th pctT-#9 / 70 · 86th pct#3 / 10 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4916.3/gmT-#121 / 138 · 12th pctT-#62 / 70 · 11th pctT-#8 / 10 · 20th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
20.7/gmT-#94 / 138 · 25th pctT-#54 / 70 · 19th pctT-#7 / 10 · 25th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
41.3/gmT-#103 / 138 · 19th pctT-#62 / 70 · 9th pctT-#7 / 10 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
121.2121.2#85 / 115 · 27th pct#48 / 60 · 21st pct#8 / 13 · 46th pct
Opp
118.0118.0#36 / 91 · 61st pct#25 / 42 · 42nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
10.3/gmT-#52 / 138 · 49th pctT-#25 / 70 · 53rd pctT-#5 / 10 · 40th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.3/gmT-#24 / 138 · 64th pctT-#11 / 70 · 64th pctT-#2 / 10 · 80th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
72.3/gmT-#11 / 138 · 89th pctT-#7 / 70 · 88th pctT-#2 / 10 · 80th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
113.7/gm#138 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#2 / 11 · 91st pct
Tackles for loss
Team
124.0/gmT-#53 / 138 · 59th pctT-#33 / 70 · 51st pctT-#3 / 10 · 60th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
196.3/gm#134 / 138 · 3rd pct#69 / 70 · 2nd pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
5919.7/gmT-#11 / 138 · 92nd pctT-#5 / 70 · 92nd pct#4 / 10 · 65th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6220.7/gmT-#135 / 138 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pctT-#8 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
175.7/gmT-#10 / 138 · 91st pctT-#5 / 70 · 91st pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
196.3/gmT-#137 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pctT-#9 / 10 · 10th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
4715.7/gm#2 / 138 · 99th pct#1 / 70 · 99th pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4414.7/gm#137 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
31.0/gmT-#23 / 138 · 74th pctT-#12 / 70 · 72nd pctT-#4 / 10 · 60th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.3/gmT-#26 / 138 · 66th pctT-#15 / 70 · 61st pctT-#2 / 10 · 70th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
103.3/gmT-#1 / 138 · 99th pctT-#1 / 70 · 99th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
20.7/gmT-#20 / 138 · 74th pctT-#10 / 70 · 72nd pctT-#2 / 10 · 80th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
90:4930:16/gm#5 / 138 · 97th pct#2 / 70 · 98th pct#3 / 10 · 75th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
89:1129:44/gm#133 / 138 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
Scrambler · +0.25 EPA/play11351 / 8262.2601
#18 FBS
7.320131.848626.010.9
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
Satellite Back · +0.05 EPA/play9342224
#16 FBS
5.3150
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
+0.11 EPA/play22812015035
+0.45 EPA/play63510320.6144
+0.09 EPA/play84377510.7025
+0.87 EPA/play839717.9014

2026 stat leaders · UNLV

through 3 games

Jake Pope leads UNLV with 23 tackles through 3 games.

1. Jake Pope S 23 tackles
2. Tre Fulton DB 21 tackles
3. Kamuela Ka'aihue LB 17 tackles
4. Cam Santee LB 17 tackles
5. Jackson Arnold QB 601 passing yards
How They Play · 2026

UNLV fields a struggling offense behind a porous defense.

Offense
5th pct EPA/play
Defense
25th pct EPA allowed

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · UNLV · 2026

UNLV reads strongest in explosive plays (top 45%) and explosive plays allowed (top 45%); the crux lives in red-zone finish, where UNLV sits at the 5th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.03
5th
Success Rate +0.35
5th
Explosive Plays +1.21
55th
Rushing EPA +0.04
35th
Red-Zone Finish +2.67
5th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.19
25th
Success Rate Allowed +0.42
35th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.23
55th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.29
15th
Red-Zone Defense +3.67
25th

hidden math · special situations

Field Position (O) +27.24
45th
Passing EPA +0.08
15th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.17
35th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 3 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 10 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · UNLV · 2018–present · FBS opponents

UNLV is worth +1.7 points more at home than on the road.

Bottom third of FBS, 12th percentile of 133 programs

45% at home, 40% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (18–22 home, 19–28 away). Interval ±4.3.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, UNLV has beaten the number by −1.5 more at home than away over 76 games — inside the ±7.4 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Allegiant Stadium seats 65,000 and has averaged 43% full (27,701, 26 games reported). Visitors cover a median 491 miles to get here since 2018 — 54th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 15% of the 2026 roster (16 of 105 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 47 home games since 2018.

Home18–22Away19–28Edge+1.7 ±4.3Visitor trip491 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected

UNLV's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 16th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 20th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter ·…Competitive snaps onl…Worst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does UNLV hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

51st percentile success on standard downs, 7th on passing downs — a 44-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantUNLVWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th

Halftime identity

UNLV by half

1st-half offense ranks 16th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 18th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.

league median1st half · 16th pc…2nd half · 18th pcti…Worst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How UNLV’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Offense: Corey Dennis (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 46% → 2026: 40% · 6-pt range · #130 of 184 · a typical amount
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 38% → 2026: 43% · 5-pt range · #166 of 182 · less than most
4th-down go rate
2025: 32% → 2026: 50% · 18-pt range · #75 of 172 · a typical amount
Defense: Paul Guenther (2025–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2025: 46% → 2026: 40% · 6-pt range · #158 of 203 · less than most
Red-zone pass rate
2025: 38% → 2026: 43% · 5-pt range · #185 of 200 · less than most
4th-down go rate
2025: 32% → 2026: 50% · 18-pt range · #79 of 189 · a typical amount
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

Pass-depth identity

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), UNLV’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.8% vs 68.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 76-play sample) — mid-pack, 12 of 41 qualifying offenses.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), UNLV’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (59.4% vs 65.2% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 89-play sample) — stingiest, 1 of 18 qualifying defenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 59 claims, 59 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=76 short-zone plays, raw rate 63.2%; 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=89 short-zone plays, raw rate 50.6%
Havoc & trenchesDisruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc & trenches

Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc Rate (D) 0.147
45th
Havoc Allowed (O) 0.176
15th
Front-Seven Havoc (D) 0.069
15th
Secondary Havoc (D) 0.077
85th
Stuff Rate (D) 0.150
35th
Stuff Rate Allowed (O) 0.153
85th
Line Yards (O) 2.972
45th
Line Yards Allowed (D) 3.602
5th
Standard-Downs Success (O) 0.437
15th
Standard-Downs Success Allowed (D) 0.479
35th
Passing-Downs Success (O) 0.200
5th
Passing-Downs Success Allowed (D) 0.296
25th
Screened 12 claims, 12 survived · 2026 season, FBS only, min. 3 games with data this season
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank UNLV

CFB Zeitgeist

#96

-2.4

SP+

#62

+2.3

FPI

#87

-5.1

Elo

#70

1480

The national models put UNLV between 62nd and 87th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is more skeptical, at 96th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · UNLV

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

Historical echoPrograms whose arc bent the same way -- then what happened.

Historical echo

UNLV’s breakout has happened before — and 1 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.

Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.

New Mexico State 1957–1962
kept climbing
Utah 1991–1996
kept climbing
New Mexico 2001–2006
fell back
Akron 1997–2002
held the gain

An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

79°F average kickoff temp; 0% of games had measurable precipitation; 8 mph average wind.

Based on 33 home games with weather data.

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