Next game: vs Northern Illinois
San José State’s best edge on Northern Illinois is running
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
San José State offense against Northern Illinois defense
Northern Illinois offense against San José State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.15 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 154 / 242 | 63.6 | 1810 #41 FBS | 7.5 | 11 #57 FBS | 8 | 134.9 | 42 | 41.0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — 242 pass attempts and 62 carries in 8 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 79 of 159 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Luke Weaver's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.06 EPA/play | 5 | 2 | 12 / 26 | 46.2 | 193 | 7.4 | 1 | 0 | 121.2 | — | 27.4 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| -0.46 EPA/play | 8 | 1 | 6 / 13 | 46.2 | 48 | 3.7 | 0 | 0 | 77.2 | — | 4.4 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · -0.06 EPA/play | 6 | 8 | 153 | 649 #39 FBS | 4.2 | 1 | 26 | 19.3 | 14.0 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — 153 carries and 9 catches in 8 games, more touches a game than nearly every FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Bates does a little of everything without one standout trait. Conti is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Yards / carry4.4 bottom 21th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate0.7% bottom 8th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jabari Bates's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.13 EPA/play | 20 | 8 | 49 | 293 | 6.0 | 3 | 67 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 49 carries and 1 catch in 8 games. Fewer touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Teu does a little of everything without one standout trait. Conti is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Yards / carry5.9 69th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share2.0% bottom 6th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Viliami Teu's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.32 EPA/play | 1 | 9 | 55 | 642 #31 FBS | 11.7 | 5 #39 FBS | 63 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Impact starter — 55 catches in 9 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. 82 of 467 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume55 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.3 bottom 30th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Carson Clark's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.80 EPA/play | 13 | 6 | 23 | 338 | 14.7 | 3 | 51 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Cooper Hoch's full player page | ||||||||
| Slot Technician · +0.24 EPA/play | 2 | 9 | 32 | 308 | 9.6 | 1 | 28 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. 32 catches in 9 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. 82 of 467 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Reception volume32 71th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Jerry McClure's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.27 EPA/play | 10 | 8 | 14 | 279 | 19.9 | 0 | 46 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. 81 of 467 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception21.9 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Anthony Ivey's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.56 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 7 | 132 | 18.9 | 0 | 47 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.40 EPA/play | — | 6 | 13 | 130 | 10 | 1 | 39 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Money-downReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. lives on the sticks and moves the chains 279 of 467 WRs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / reception7.9 bottom 6th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume13 bottom 15th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jordan Anderson's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.43 EPA/play | 9 | 5 | 9 | 94 | 10.4 | 1 | 27 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 57 | 9 | 31 | 20 | 5.5 | 4 | 6 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — 31 tackles in 9 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate17.7% 59th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Justin Stearns's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 90 | 9 | 29 | 18 | 8 #50 FBS | 6 #17 FBS | 1 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — 29 tackles in 9 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate27.6% 87th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jayland McGlothen's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 45 | 9 | 23 | 12 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 9 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 23 tackles in 9 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate28.3% 88th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jeremiah Tuiileila's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 51 | 8 | 21 | 10 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 21 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate9.5% bottom 31th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Solomone Langi's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 89 | 4 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate9.1% bottom 30th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Etu Finau's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 48 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 2 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.0% bottom 50th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Dejon Roney's full player page | |||||||
| 99 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |
| 91 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | |
| 92 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 4 | 9 | 78 | 41 | 37 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 #16 FBS |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Impact starter — 78 tackles in 9 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume78 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate5.1% 74th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dylan Lee's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 3 | 9 | 63 | 31 | 32 | 1.5 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 63 tackles in 9 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume63 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate2.4% bottom 16th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Naseri Danielson's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 6 | 8 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 5 | 2.5 | 2 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 38 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.7 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate6.6% 79th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ethan Powell's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 7 | 7 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.0% 93th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate16.0% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Aizik Mahuka's full player page | |||||||||
| 53 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 97 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 24 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perimeter Tackler | 32 | 9 | 57 | 2 | 2 #51 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Perimeter tacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Impact starter — 57 tackles in 9 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume57 100th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Caleb Womack's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 39 | 9 | 51 | 3 | 1 | 2.5 | 1 |
Box safety· Takeaway threatLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way Impact starter — 51 tackles in 9 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume51 94th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Tuli Tagovailoa-Amosa's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 1 | 9 | 40 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — 40 tackles in 9 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Brian Dukes's full player pagePD rate5.0% bottom 36th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 14 | 9 | 20 | 5 | 2 #51 FBS | 1 | 0 |
Ball hawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate25.0% 86th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jayden Robertson's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | — | 4 | 14 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate7.1% bottom 27th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Isaiah Buxton's full player page | |||||||
| 13 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Cover Corner | 10 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Greco Carrillo's full player page | |||||||
| 5 | 6 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 36 | 9 | 17/21 | 81.0 | 16/16 | 67 | 49 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 49 | 9 | 49 | 2124 | 43.3 | 70 | 17 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.56 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 11 | 236 | 21.5 | 0 | 54 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.27 EPA/play | 10 | 8 | 13 | 72 | 5.5 | 0 | 33 |
Biggest plays from San José State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in San José State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q3, 0:53 · Eastern Michigan down 3, takes the leadEastern Michigan scores a touchdownSan José State at Eastern Michigan, week 1Q3, 0:53 · Eastern Michigan 21, San José State 171Fumble return touchdown1Fumble return touchdownFumble return touchdownL.Weaver sacked for loss of 11 yards to the SJSU01 (R.Hardin), fumble by L.Weaver recovered by EMU B.Llewellyn at SJSU01 B.Llewellyn return 1 yard to the SJSU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q4, 11:19 · San José State down 4, takes the leadLuke Weaver finds Cooper Hoch for a 40-yard touchdownSan José State at Eastern Michigan, week 1Q4, 11:19 · San José State 24, Eastern Michigan 21▲28%San José State’s chance to win, 29% to 57%▲28%San José State’s chance to win, 29% to 57%L.Weaver pass complete deep middle to C.Hoch caught at EMU16, for 40 yards to the EMU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q3, 6:08 · San José State down 4, takes the leadLuke Weaver finds Cooper Hoch for a 10-yard touchdownSan José State at Eastern Michigan, week 1Q3, 6:08 · San José State 17, Eastern Michigan 14▲24%San José State’s chance to win, 32% to 56%▲24%San José State’s chance to win, 32% to 56%L.Weaver pass complete short right to C.Hoch caught at EMU00, for 10 yards to the EMU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 1:19 · San José State down 7, ties itLuke Weaver finds Jase Nix for a 27-yard touchdownSan José State at Eastern Michigan, week 1Q2, 1:19 · San José State 7, Eastern Michigan 7San José State tied the game in the second quarterSan José State tied the game in the second quarterL.Weaver pass complete deep left to J.Nix caught at EMU00, for 27 yards to the EMU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 9:19 · Eastern Michigan tiedNoah Kim finds Harold Mack for a 5-yard touchdownSan José State at Eastern Michigan, week 1Q2, 9:19 · Eastern Michigan 7, San José State 0Eastern Michigan opened the scoringEastern Michigan opened the scoringN.Kim pass complete short left to H.Mack caught at SJSU00, for 5 yards to the SJSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 12:25 · San José State tiedCaleb Dobbs intercepts Luke Weaver and returns it 8 yardsSan José State at Eastern Michigan, week 1Q2, 12:25 · San José State 0, Eastern Michigan 07San José State’s turnover led to a touchdown7San José State’s turnover led to a touchdownSan José State’s turnover led to a touchdownL.Weaver pass intercepted by C.Dobbs at EMU34 broken up by J.Salas C.Dobbs return 8 yards to the EMU42 (A.Ivey)▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
San José State lost to Wyoming after being 85% to win; the closest win was at Eastern Michigan, down to 14%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave San José State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · San José State
through 9 games
2026 stat leaders · San José StateDylan Lee leads San José State with 78 tackles through 9 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+14 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
San José State fields a limited offense behind a solid, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
San José State reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 12%) and passing EPA allowed (top 21%); the crux lives in success rate, where San José State sits at the 8th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
San José State is worth +3.3 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 33rd percentile of 133 programs
56% at home, 32% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (24-19 home, 15-32 away). Interval ±3.3.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, San José State has beaten the number by −4.4 more at home than away over 96 games. That is inside the ±5.9 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
CEFCU Stadium seats 30,456 and has averaged 51% full (15,565, 29 games reported). Visitors cover a median 572 miles to get here since 2018 — 34th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 38% of the 2026 roster (37 of 97 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 50 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- UnderdogJackson Canaan produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Deep threatKyri Shoels is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Jabari Bates and Viliami Teu split the carries (150/199 vs 49/199) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Viliami Teu produces in bigger chunks.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Carson Clark (WR) and Kamaehu Kopa-Kaawalauole (TE) split the targets (77/86 vs 9/86) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How San José State actually scores
13th percentile quality, 84th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
San José State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 41st percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 19th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does San José State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
17th percentile success on standard downs, 2nd on passing downs — a 15-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
San José State by half
1st-half offense ranks 16th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 21st — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of San José State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.07; 24th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.01. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.19 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How San José State’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), San José State’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.0% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 238-play sample) — mid-pack, 36 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), San José State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.2% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 215-play sample) — mid-pack, 114 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Takeaways
Cashing in more than most: 29% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~18% league-wide.
11 interceptions of 38 disrupted passes (27 deflected, 11 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Roughly even on flags: 51 penalties committed vs. 55 drawn on opponents.
445 penalty yards committed vs. 439 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · San José State
Most similar programs · San José StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, CA
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 62°, between 56° and 66° in about 7 in 10 games (30 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 60°, and 8 in 10 ran between 46° and 76° (47 of 55 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.