San José State

2-1

Mountain West · Ken Niumatalolo, year 3 (12-16) · CEFCU Stadium · 30,456 · 15,017 avg in 2026

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#109 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #112 (-12.8) · FPI #116
The marketFresno State by 6.5vs Fresno State · our model 35% San José State · a number, not a pick

LastW 30–20 vs Cal Poly · Sat Sep 12 · Luke Weaver 238 pass yds, 3 TD, 44 rush yds

Nextvs Fresno State · Sat Sep 19 · 11 pm ET · CEFCU Stadium · Fresno State by 6.5 · series 31-39, lost the last 2 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
27.7
Pts allowed/game
27.7
Total yards/gm#4 / 138 · 97th pct
427.3
Rush yards/gm#24 / 138 · 83rd pct
164.7
Pass yards/gm#8 / 138 · 95th pct
262.7
Yards allowed/gm#133 / 138 · 4th pct
375.3
Rush yds allowed/gm#112 / 138 · 19th pct
120.7
SacksT-#20 / 138 · 80th pct
6
InterceptionsT-#5 / 115 · 91st pct
4
3rd-down convT-#104 / 138 · 23rd pct
33.3%
All 94 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
1282427.3/gm6.08/play#4 / 138 · 97th pct#3 / 70 · 96th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
1126375.3/gm5.29/play#133 / 138 · 4th pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
494164.7/gm2.34/play#24 / 138 · 83rd pct#16 / 70 · 78th pct#4 / 10 · 65th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
362120.7/gm1.70/play#112 / 138 · 19th pct#66 / 70 · 6th pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
10434.7/gmT-#10 / 138 · 93rd pct#3 / 70 · 96th pct#4 / 10 · 65th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
9431.3/gmT-#129 / 138 · 6th pctT-#69 / 70 · 1st pct#7 / 10 · 35th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
10.3/gmT-#123 / 138 · 8th pctT-#64 / 70 · 6th pctT-#9 / 10 · 10th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
72.3/gmT-#132 / 138 · 4th pctT-#69 / 70 · 1st pctT-#9 / 10 · 10th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
788262.7/gm3.73/play#8 / 138 · 95th pct#4 / 70 · 95th pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
764254.7/gm3.59/play#137 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
10735.7/gmT-#2 / 138 · 99th pct#1 / 70 · 99th pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
11939.7/gm#138 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
6622.0/gm#4 / 138 · 97th pct#2 / 70 · 98th pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
7826.0/gm#138 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
82.7/gmT-#7 / 138 · 94th pctT-#6 / 70 · 90th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
41.3/gmT-#103 / 138 · 19th pctT-#62 / 70 · 9th pctT-#7 / 10 · 25th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
140.7140.7#64 / 115 · 45th pct#42 / 60 · 31st pct#3 / 13 · 85th pct
Opp
128.9128.9#53 / 91 · 42nd pct#31 / 42 · 27th pct#5 / 13 · 69th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
10.3/gmT-#52 / 138 · 49th pctT-#25 / 70 · 53rd pctT-#5 / 10 · 40th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
41.3/gmT-#123 / 138 · 7th pctT-#65 / 70 · 5th pct#8 / 10 · 25th pct#2 / 13 · 92nd pct
Sacks (def)
Team
62.0/gmT-#20 / 138 · 80th pctT-#11 / 70 · 78th pctT-#4 / 10 · 60th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
20.7/gmT-#33 / 138 · 67th pctT-#20 / 70 · 61st pct#3 / 10 · 75th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
134.3/gmT-#47 / 138 · 64th pctT-#28 / 70 · 57th pct#2 / 10 · 85th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
144.7/gmT-#118 / 138 · 13th pctT-#66 / 70 · 6th pct#5 / 10 · 55th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
6521.7/gm#3 / 138 · 98th pct#3 / 70 · 96th pct#1 / 10 · 95th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6220.7/gmT-#135 / 138 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pctT-#8 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
134.3/gmT-#37 / 138 · 68th pctT-#19 / 70 · 66th pct#5 / 10 · 55th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
196.3/gmT-#137 / 138 · 1st pct#70 / 70 · 1st pctT-#9 / 10 · 10th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
3913.0/gm#7 / 138 · 95th pct#1 / 70 · 99th pct#4 / 10 · 65th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4314.3/gm#136 / 138 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#9 / 10 · 15th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
20.7/gmT-#51 / 138 · 51st pctT-#28 / 70 · 49th pctT-#6 / 10 · 40th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
31.0/gmT-#104 / 138 · 19th pctT-#56 / 70 · 16th pctT-#8 / 10 · 20th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
41.3/gmT-#47 / 138 · 60th pctT-#24 / 70 · 59th pctT-#5 / 10 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
82.7/gmT-#131 / 138 · 3rd pctT-#68 / 70 · 2nd pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
83:3927:53/gm#8 / 138 · 95th pct#2 / 70 · 98th pct#4 / 10 · 65th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
96:2132:07/gm#136 / 138 · 2nd pct#70 / 70 · 1st pct#10 / 10 · 5th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
Scrambler · +0.48 EPA/play3366 / 10562.9788
#5 FBS
7.58
#3 FBS
1149.15560.18.31.9
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
Balanced Back · +0.07 EPA/play6358319
#3 FBS
5.502316.123.2
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Jump-Ball Target · +0.90 EPA/play13314216
#21 FBS
15.43
#9 FBS
51
Slot Technician · +0.56 EPA/play1319213
#22 FBS
11.22
#24 FBS
42
Possession Receiver · +0.33 EPA/play23121139.4128
+0.65 EPA/play368113.5139

2026 stat leaders · San José State

through 3 games

Caleb Womack leads San José State with 25 tackles through 3 games.

1. Caleb Womack CB 25 tackles
2. Dylan Lee LB 24 tackles
3. Naseri Danielson LB 22 tackles
4. Jabari Bates RB 319 rushing yards
5. Ethan Powell LB 20 tackles
How They Play · 2026

San José State fields a strong explosive, big-play offense behind a leaky, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
65th pct EPA/play
Tempo
65th pct explosiveness
Defense
35th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
85th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · San José State · 2026

San José State reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 15%) and epa / play (top 35%); the crux lives in success rate allowed, where San José State sits at the 5th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.21
65th
Success Rate +0.42
45th
Explosive Plays +1.29
65th
Rushing EPA +0.06
45th
Red-Zone Finish +3.82
55th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.14
35th
Success Rate Allowed +0.47
5th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.02
85th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.19
55th
Red-Zone Defense +3.44
45th

hidden math · special situations

Field Position (O) +30.02
65th
Passing EPA +0.38
55th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.18
25th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 3 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 10 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · San José State · 2018–present · FBS opponents

San José State is worth +3.8 points more at home than on the road.

Middle of FBS, 44th percentile of 133 programs

60% at home, 30% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (24–16 home, 13–31 away). Interval ±3.5.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, San José State has beaten the number by −4.5 more at home than away over 72 games — inside the ±6.7 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

CEFCU Stadium seats 30,456 and has averaged 52% full (15,798, 26 games reported). Visitors cover a median 526 miles to get here since 2018 — 40th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 39% of the 2026 roster (38 of 98 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 47 home games since 2018.

Home24–16Away13–31Edge+3.8 ±3.5Visitor trip526 mi

More in this tab

Position battlesReps are split -- here's who's actually winning them.

Positional competition · RB room

The carries are split. The job isn’t.

Jabari Bates and Viliami Teu split the carries (56/65 vs 9/65) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Viliami Teu produces in bigger chunks.

Jabari BatesViliami Teu
Carries
569
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Top-5-carry share
27.3%98.4%
concentration and EPA/carry agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 1 claims, 1 survived
Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected

San José State's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 77th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 61st — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 77th pc…Competitive snaps only · 61st pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does San José State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

54th percentile success on standard downs, 22nd on passing downs — a 32-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantSan José StateWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th

Halftime identity

San José State by half

1st-half offense ranks 18th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 65th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.

league median1st half · 18th pcti…2nd half · 65th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How San José State’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Offense: Craig Stutzmann (2024–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 60% → 2026: 44% · 16-pt range · #37 of 184 · more than most
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 64% → 2026: 57% · 9-pt range · #133 of 182 · a typical amount
4th-down go rate
2024: 33% → 2026: 29% · 8-pt range · #151 of 172 · less than most
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

Pass-depth identity

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), San José State’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (66.8% vs 68.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 87-play sample) — mid-pack, 15 of 41 qualifying offenses.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), San José State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.0% vs 65.2% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 71-play sample) — most generous, 16 of 18 qualifying defenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 59 claims, 59 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=87 short-zone plays, raw rate 65.5%; 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=71 short-zone plays, raw rate 73.2%
Havoc & trenchesDisruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc & trenches

Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc Rate (D) 0.135
15th
Havoc Allowed (O) 0.135
75th
Front-Seven Havoc (D) 0.060
5th
Secondary Havoc (D) 0.075
75th
Stuff Rate (D) 0.130
15th
Stuff Rate Allowed (O) 0.202
25th
Line Yards (O) 3.128
75th
Line Yards Allowed (D) 3.061
35th
Standard-Downs Success (O) 0.483
45th
Standard-Downs Success Allowed (D) 0.543
5th
Passing-Downs Success (O) 0.289
45th
Passing-Downs Success Allowed (D) 0.277
45th
Screened 12 claims, 12 survived · 2026 season, FBS only, min. 3 games with data this season
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank San José State

CFB Zeitgeist

#109

-4.3

SP+

#112

-12.8

FPI

#116

-11.0

Elo

#87

1407

The national models put San José State between 87th and 116th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist agrees, slotting them 109th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · San José State

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

69°F average kickoff temp; 7% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.

Based on 71 home games with weather data.

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