Next game: at Hawai'i
North Dakota State’s best edge on Hawai’i is red zone
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
North Dakota State offense against Hawai'i defense
Hawai'i offense against North Dakota State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.20 EPA/play | 2 | 9 | 145 / 228 | 63.6 | 1710 #53 FBS | 7.5 | 13 #41 FBS | 8 | 138.4 | 55 | 59.2 | 6.6 | 3.8 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Starter — 228 pass attempts and 50 carries in 9 games, fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. This week's matchup — QB Hayes extends plays on the move until something opens up. Alejado is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Rush usage18.0% bottom 36th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry4.6 86th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nathan Hayes's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · -0.09 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 95 | 398 | 4.2 | 3 | 31 | 19.4 | 10.8 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — 95 carries and 6 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Mitchell does a little of everything without one standout trait. Rice is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Yards / carry4.5 bottom 23th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception2.3 bottom 3th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Myles Mitchell's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.05 EPA/play | 7 | 8 | 95 | 364 | 3.8 | 5 | 42 | 19.1 | 11.7 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — 95 carries and 9 catches in 8 games, about as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Scott does a little of everything without one standout trait. Rice is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Yards / carry3.9 bottom 10th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share8.7% bottom 36th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View DJ Scott's full player page | ||||||||||
| -0.16 EPA/play | 4 | 7 | 38 | 175 | 4.6 | 0 | 25 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| -0.01 EPA/play | 32 | 6 | 30 | 102 | 3.4 | 0 | 11 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.43 EPA/play | 18 | 9 | 42 | 614 #40 FBS | 14.6 | 1 | 51 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Starter — 42 catches and 10 carries in 9 games, about as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Williams wins underneath on volume and route precision. Uiliata is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Reception volume42 92th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate2.4% bottom 17th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jackson Williams's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.71 EPA/play | 81 | 9 | 27 | 345 | 12.8 | 4 #70 FBS | 30 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Starter — 27 catches in 9 games, about as many catches a game as a typical FBS tight end who plays every week. This week's matchup — TE Kessel shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Abreu is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception12.0 61th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume27 88th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Reis Kessel's full player page | ||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.19 EPA/play | 15 | 8 | 18 | 227 | 12.6 | 4 #70 FBS | 44 | |
Yards by week → Jump-ball targetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. This week's matchup — WR Collins wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Uiliata is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt TD rate22.2% 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception8.4 bottom 8th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Mekhi Collins's full player page | ||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +0.62 EPA/play | 21 | 5 | 12 | 151 | 12.6 | 2 | 24 | |
Yards by week → Jump-ball targetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. This week's matchup — WR Kiel wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Uiliata is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt TD rate16.7% 88th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume12 bottom 13th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Christopher Kiel's full player page | ||||||||
| 17 | 6 | 9 | 76 | 8.4 | 0 | 18 | ||
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 8 | 9 | 31 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — 31 tackles in 9 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate6.5% bottom 22th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Keenan Wilson's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 94 | 9 | 26 | 10 | 5 | 1.5 | 5 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 26 tackles in 9 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate19.2% 64th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Logan Larson's full player page | |||||||
| Pressure Merchant | 11 | 9 | 25 | 11 | 3.5 | 1 | 7 |
Pressure merchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. 25 tackles in 9 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 22 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.3 84th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Matthew Stenbroten's full player page | |||||||
| Finisher | 9 | 8 | 19 | 9 | 8.5 #40 FBS | 6 #17 FBS | 3 |
FinisherTurns pressure into sacks — when he gets there, he finishes. 10 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Pressure-to-sack conversion0.7 86th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kelton McCaslin's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 95 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Zach Vanderpool's full player page | |||||||
| 93 | 6 | 7 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 99 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| — | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1 | |
| 60 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 1 | 9 | 66 | 35 | 31 | 6 | 2.5 | 3 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 66 tackles in 9 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume66 95th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate4.5% 68th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Donovan Woolen's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 3 | 8 | 46 | 21 | 25 | 10 #20 FBS | 2 | 1 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 46 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume46 68th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate21.7% 98th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Gavin Sell's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 25 | 8 | 39 | 22 | 17 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 #51 FBS |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 39 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate14.1% 79th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate3.8% 56th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ray James Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 41 | 7 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Peder Haugo's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 42 | 7 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume15 bottom 10th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Alex Elliott's full player page | |||||||||
| 52 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 29 | 6 | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 30 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 15th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Darius Givance's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 20 | 8 | 27 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Will Steil's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 14 | 9 | 27 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 9 of 10 games this season · freshman View Taylen Eady's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 16 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 5 #1 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Cover corner· Takeaway threatSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.7% bottom 32th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Marion Moore's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 6 | 8 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate23.5% 98th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jaylin Crumby's full player page | |||||||
| 12 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 34 | 5 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Big Leg | 37 | 9 | 12/14 | 85.7 | 27/29 | 63 | 56 |
| 38 | 1 | 0/1 | 0 | 0/0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 39 | 9 | 35 | 1580 | 45.1 | 68 | 14 | 5 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.43 EPA/play | 18 | 9 | 12 | 259 | 21.6 | 0 | 35 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.43 EPA/play | 18 | 9 | 12 | 149 | 12.4 | 0 | 40 |
| -0.35 EPA/play | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 6 | 0 | 16 |
Biggest plays from North Dakota State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in North Dakota State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q2, 14:08 · North Dakota State up 7Nathan Hayes runs 17 yards for a touchdownNorth Dakota State at Air Force, week 2Q2, 14:08 · North Dakota State 14, Air Force 0▼18%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 79% to 61%▼18%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 79% to 61%N.Hayes rush middle for 17 yards gain to the AF00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 1:48 · Air Force down 14Blake Fletcher takes an interception 95 yards for a pick-sixNorth Dakota State at Air Force, week 2Q2, 1:48 · Air Force 13, North Dakota State 2195Pick-six95Pick-sixPick-sixN.Hayes pass intercepted by B.Fletcher at AF05 B.Fletcher return 95 yards to the NDSU00 touchdown Timeout North Dakota State, kick no good▶Watch from this play
Q2, 0:29 · North Dakota State up 8Myles Mitchell runs 1 yard for a touchdownNorth Dakota State at Air Force, week 2Q2, 0:29 · North Dakota State 28, Air Force 13North Dakota State scored with 0:29 left in the halfNorth Dakota State scored with 0:29 left in the halfM.Mitchell rush middle for 1 yard gain to the AF00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q1, 9:54 · North Dakota State tiedMyles Mitchell runs 31 yards for a touchdownNorth Dakota State at Air Force, week 2Q1, 9:54 · North Dakota State 7, Air Force 0North Dakota State opened the scoringNorth Dakota State opened the scoringM.Mitchell rush left for 31 yards gain to the AF00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 3:25 · Air Force down 14Gavin Sell intercepts Liam Szarka and returns it 25 yardsNorth Dakota State at Air Force, week 2Q2, 3:25 · Air Force 7, North Dakota State 21▼13%Air Force’s chance to win, 24% to 11%▼13%Air Force’s chance to win, 24% to 11%L.Szarka pass intercepted by G.Sell at AF50 G.Sell return 25 yards to the AF25 (G.LaDue)▶Watch from this play
Q2, 2:07 · North Dakota State up 3Jonavan Carr intercepts Nathan HayesJacksonville State at North Dakota State, week 1Q2, 2:07 · North Dakota State 10, Jacksonville State 7▼7%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 82% to 75%▼7%North Dakota State’s chance to win, 82% to 75%N.Hayes pass intercepted by J.Carr at NDSU21, End Of Play▶Watch from this play
CBS Sports College Football
How scary each game got
North Dakota State lost 2 of 9 games, none after a real lead; the closest win was at Sacramento State, down to 13%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave North Dakota State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · North Dakota State
through 9 games
2026 stat leaders · North Dakota StateDonovan Woolen leads North Dakota State with 66 tackles through 9 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+18 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
North Dakota State fields a limited run-heavy, explosive, big-play offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
North Dakota State reads strongest in red-zone defense (top 1%) and EPA allowed (top 2%); the crux lives in success rate, where North Dakota State sits at the 26th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
North Dakota State is worth +5.1 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 65th percentile of 133 programs
100% at home, 56% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (9-0 home, 5-4 away). Interval ±6.3.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, North Dakota State has beaten the number by +2.9 more at home than away over 59 games. That is inside the ±6.5 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Fargodome seats 18,700 and has averaged 85% full (15,819, 21 games reported). Visitors face the 12th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 698 miles since 2018. The map isn't translating, though — the split above still reads middle of fbs. 11% of the 2026 roster (13 of 116 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 67 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
DJ Scott and Myles Mitchell split the carries (93/186 vs 93/186) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Jackson Williams (WR) and Reis Kessel (TE) split the targets (60/92 vs 32/92) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Reis Kessel produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How North Dakota State actually scores
31st percentile quality, 64th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
North Dakota State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 16th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 19th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does North Dakota State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
30th percentile success on standard downs, 45th on passing downs — a 15-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
North Dakota State by half
1st-half offense ranks 46th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 35th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of North Dakota State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.10; 32nd percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.24 raw vs. 0.02 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), North Dakota State’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.1% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 192-play sample) — mid-pack, 62 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), North Dakota State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (63.1% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 153-play sample) — mid-pack, 8 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces haven't gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 40% recovered, vs. ~48% expected.
4 of 10 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Cashing in more than most: 39% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~18% league-wide.
14 interceptions of 36 disrupted passes (22 deflected, 14 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Roughly even on flags: 58 penalties committed vs. 57 drawn on opponents.
516 penalty yards committed vs. 539 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · North Dakota State
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Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.