Valparaiso beats Presbyterian 24-7

Team pages: Presbyterian · Valparaiso

Presbyterian4-47
Valparaiso4-424Final
Sat, Oct 24 · Brown Field, Valparaiso, Ind. · Crowd 1,299ESPN+

Valparaiso beat Presbyterian 24-7.

We had Valparaiso favored. It won.

Next: Presbyterian vs Butler, Sat Oct 31 · 1:00 PM ET

Next: Valparaiso at Dayton, Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Keefe incomplete to Yeats (Q4, 0:00). Valparaiso went from 69% to 91% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Valparaiso a 51% chance, and the closing betting line (Valparaiso was a 4-point favorite) put it at 63%.

Favored the whole way: Valparaiso never fell below 69%.

Presbyterian never had better than a 31% chance.

FinalValparaiso 24-7 PresbyterianValparaiso wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q484% at halfValparaisoWon24-71+22Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q484% at halfValparaisoWon24-71Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q416% at halfValparaisoLowest 0%Lost7-241−22Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q416% at halfValparaisoLowest 0%Lost7-241Scores

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q4 0:00Keefe incomplete to YeatsValparaiso 69% → 91% (+22)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q4 0:00Keefe incomplete to YeatsPresbyterian 31% → 9% (−22)
Valparaiso’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Valparaiso -4), at 73% for Valparaiso (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Valparaiso scored on 5 of its 12 drives; Presbyterian on 1 of its 11.

Valparaiso’s drives are teal, Presbyterian’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Presbyterian: Punt, from 75 yards out to 76PuntValparaiso: Touchdown, from 15 yards out to 0TouchdownPresbyterian: Punt, from 85 yards out to 70PuntValparaiso: Punt, from 52 yards out to 45PuntPresbyterian: Punt, from 91 yards out to 34PuntValparaiso: Punt, from 96 yards out to 62PuntPresbyterian: Punt, from 72 yards out to 50PuntQ2Valparaiso: Touchdown, from 90 yards out to 0TouchdownPresbyterian: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 19DownsValparaiso: Fumble, from 81 yards out to 9FumblePresbyterian: Touchdown, from 91 yards out to 0TouchdownValparaiso: Field goal, from 70 yards out to 24Field goalQ3Valparaiso: Punt, from 89 yards out to 58PuntPresbyterian: Punt, from 69 yards out to 83PuntValparaiso: Fumble, from 59 yards out to 51FumblePresbyterian: Interception, from 49 yards out to 37InterceptionValparaiso: Turned over on downs, from 50 yards out to 28DownsPresbyterian: Punt, from 72 yards out to 60PuntValparaiso: Touchdown, from 14 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Presbyterian: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 41DownsValparaiso: Field goal, from 59 yards out to 30Field goalPresbyterian: Turned over on downs, from 76 yards out to 28DownsValparaiso: Uncategorized, from 72 yards out to 61Uncategorized

Box score

Valparaiso 24, Presbyterian 7

Valparaiso covered −4 by 13. The total, 31, stayed under 55.5.

Presbyterian leaders

  • Passing Max Holtzclaw 13 of 30, 116 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Max Holtzclaw 20 for 102 yds, 1 TD; Jackson Burleson 16 for 56 yds
  • Receiving Brice Johnson 5 for 36 yds; Caleb Johnson 2 for 22 yds

Valparaiso leaders

  • Passing Rowan Keefe 21 of 29, 275 yds
  • Rushing Russell Tye 6 for 39 yds, 1 TD; Cedric Benning Iii 10 for 26 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Ashton Allen 1 for 69 yds; Isaac Tran 1 for 59 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Presbyterian · 4-3

Rated 156th in our preseason ratings, 215th now.

Three straight wins, including a 34-point win over St. Thomas (MN) as a 28.5-point underdog.

W 47-43 @ Stetson No. 260 of 668 teams

won by 4 as a 7.5-point favorite

Presbyterian won 47-43 at Stetson. Chance to win started at 69%, low 19%, high better than 99%.

W 38-21 vs Davidson No. 267 of 668 teams

won by 17 as a 14.5-point favorite

Presbyterian won 38-21 vs Davidson. Chance to win started at 83%, low 53%, high better than 99%.

W 55-21 vs St. Thomas (MN) No. 193 of 668 teams

won by 34 as a 28.5-point underdog

Presbyterian won 55-21 vs St. Thomas (MN). Chance to win started at 5%, low 3%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Valparaiso · 3-4

Rated 256th in our preseason ratings, 246th now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 8-point win over Drake as a 9.5-point underdog.

L 13-38 @ San Diego No. 209 of 668 teams

lost by 25 as a 6-point underdog

Valparaiso lost 13-38 at San Diego. Chance to win started at 27%, low under 1%, high 27%.

W 21-13 vs Drake No. 212 of 668 teams

won by 8 as a 9.5-point underdog

Valparaiso won 21-13 vs Drake. Chance to win started at 31%, low 14%, high better than 99%.

W 37-3 @ Morehead State No. 261 of 668 teams

won by 34 as a 3.5-point favorite

Valparaiso won 37-3 at Morehead State. Chance to win started at 56%, low 39%, high better than 99%.

L 28-33 vs Butler No. 199 of 668 teams

lost by 5 as a 6.5-point underdog

Valparaiso lost 28-33 vs Butler. Chance to win started at 38%, low under 1%, high 80%.

L 16-39 @ Indiana State No. 205 of 668 teams

lost by 23 as a 22.5-point underdog

Valparaiso lost 16-39 at Indiana State. Chance to win started at 4%, low under 1%, high 8%.

L 18-27 @ Murray State No. 252 of 668 teams

lost by 9 as a 14-point underdog

Valparaiso lost 18-27 at Murray State. Chance to win started at 11%, low under 1%, high 21%.

W 59-13 vs Lawrence Tech

Week by week

Valparaiso

Wk 3: L 16-39 at Indiana State▼23Indiana…Wk 4: L 28-33 vs Butler▼5ButlerWk 5: W 37-3 at Morehead State▲34Morehead…Wk 6: W 21-13 vs Drake▲8DrakeWk 7: L 13-38 at San Diego▼25San Diego
  • Wk 3Lat Indiana State16-39
  • Wk 4Lvs Butler28-33
  • Wk 5Wat Morehead State37-3
  • Wk 6Wvs Drake21-13
  • Wk 7Lat San Diego13-38

Presbyterian

Wk 3: L 14-58 at Western Carolina▼44W. Carol…Wk 4: L 7-42 at Marist▼35MaristWk 5: W 55-21 vs St. Thomas (MN)▲34St. Thom…Wk 6: W 38-21 vs Davidson▲17DavidsonWk 7: W 47-43 at Stetson▲4Stetson
  • Wk 3Lat Western Carolina14-58
  • Wk 4Lat Marist7-42
  • Wk 5Wvs St. Thomas (MN)55-21
  • Wk 6Wvs Davidson38-21
  • Wk 7Wat Stetson47-43

Power rating by week

Presbyterian is rated 1.7 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-7-10-14Wk 0Wk 4Wk 7ValparaisoPresbyterian

The series

Valparaiso leads the series 2-1

3 meetings since 2021 · Presbyterian won the last meeting

  • 2025Presbyterian 43-14
  • 2022Valparaiso 41-21
  • 2021Valparaiso 65-55

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Valparaiso’s chances here.

50-50Model · 51%Line · 63%PresbyterianValparaiso

Valparaiso favored by 4 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Valparaiso by 4, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 395 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Valparaiso.

opened −3now −4

The total fell 3 points.

opened 58.5now 55.5

Spread: −3 → −4 · Total: 58.5 → 55.5

The books’ cut: 5.2%, the margin built into the odds

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.