CFB Zeitgeist Score
46
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 75th percentile.
Ashtyn Hawkins
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
621 REC YDS · 53 REC · 0 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to Baylor for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Wide receiver · Baylor
Returning around him
- 82% of 2024 offensive production back (Strong continuity)
- 2 Baylor players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -1 net (31 in / 32 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Baylor · Last season: 5-7 · Talent rank #35 · 2026 recruiting class #36
WR · BAYLOR · BIG 12
Ashtyn Hawkins
- 4
- #6
- 5-10 | 168 lb
- Desoto, TX
Heisman Heat
#379
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
In Their Words
33 windows · 2025 fan posts
connor×945.1kicker×708.8baylor×109.0
“#BOOM Former Baylor kicker Connor Hawkins commits to Ohio State.”
bluesky_curated · fan post, verbatim
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2021–2025+119%
Up 119% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Texas State -> Baylor | 3-star | 0.8800 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Ashtyn Hawkins
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=1
- National · n=7
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Ashtyn Hawkins
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Receiving yards (total)
621
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #134 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 75th
Why it matters
#134 of 531 All FBS WRs in receiving yards — 621 yards on 53 receptions.
Vs cohort
This player 621 (75th)
HIGH · n=53 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Yards per reception#306 / 531
- Receiving TDs#476 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 2 at SMU — 145 receiving_yards_total
Result W 48-45
The week the volume broke through — put up 145 yds at SMU.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 12g
621Rec yards
53Receptions
0Rec TDs
Per game
51.8Rec yards
4Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
672.8Rec yards
57Receptions
0Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 621): needs 79/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 621): needs 379/game over remaining 1.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 53): needs 7/game over remaining 1.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 53): needs 27/game over remaining 1.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 8/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 0): needs 10/game over remaining 1.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Ashtyn Hawkins's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Baylor, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Target magnet against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
53 91st
YDS
621 87th
YPR
11.7 49th
TD
0 45th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 24-38vs Auburn | 4 | 70 | 17.5 | 0 | 36 | |
| Wk 2 | W 48-45@ SMU | 10 | 145 | 14.5 | 0 | 28 | Season-high 145 yds |
| Wk 3 | W 42-7vs Samford | 3 | 42 | 14.0 | 0 | 36 | |
| Wk 4 | L 24-27vs Arizona State | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wk 5 | W 45-27@ Oklahoma State | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 6 | W 35-34vs Kansas State | 4 | 33 | 8.3 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 8 | L 36-42@ TCU | 7 | 95 | 13.6 | 0 | 41 | |
| Wk 9 | L 20-41@ Cincinnati | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 | 15 | |
| Wk 10 | W 30-3vs UCF | 8 | 33 | 4.1 | 0 | 15 | |
| Wk 12 | L 28-55vs Utah | 7 | 119 | 17.0 | 0 | 37 | |
| Wk 13 | L 17-41@ Arizona | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 14 | L 24-31vs Houston | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 | 23 | |
| Total | 53 | 621 | 10.3 | 0 | 41 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021Texas State4-8HC: Jake Spavital · Run-leaning
2022Texas State4-8HC: Jake Spavital · Balanced
2023Texas State8-5HC: G.J. Kinne · Run-leaning
2024Baylor8-5HC: Dave Aranda · Run-leaning
2025Baylor5-7HC: Dave Aranda · Pass-leaning, fast tempo
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Baylor | 53 | 621 | 11.7 | 0 | -- |
| 2024 | Baylor | 45 | 567 | 12.6 | 5 | -- |
| 2023 | Texas State | 55 | 874 | 15.9 | 3 | -- |
| 2022 | Texas State | 55 | 582 | 10.6 | 7 | -- |
| 2021 | Texas State | 30 | 284 | 9.5 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 5 loaded seasons | 238 | 2,928 | 12.3 | 16 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Baylor | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Baylor | 3 | 4 | -1 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Texas State | 1 | -2 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Texas State | 1 | -4 | -- | 99 | -- |
| 2021 | Texas State | 2 | 14 | -- | 2 | -- |
| Career | 5 loaded seasons | 7 | 12 | -1 | 101 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 53 | #101/1110 | 91st pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 621 | #140/1107 | 87th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #615/1111 | 45th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 11.7 | #570/1106 | 49th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 14.7% | #257/1137 | 77th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 41 | #430/1105 | 61st pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 11.8% | #140/1137 | 88th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 10.2% | #106/1137 | 91st pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 8.6% | #168/1137 | 85th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 8.5% | #154/1137 | 87th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 7.2% | #203/1137 | 82nd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 7.1% | #442/1137 | 61st pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #391/1137 | 66th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 1 | #131/302 | 57th pct | Turnoversvs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 4.3 | 47.3 | 10.2 | 0.0 |
| Road5g | 4.6 | 58.0 | 10.5 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins5g | 5.4 | 53.6 | 9.7 | 0.0 |
| Losses7g | 3.7 | 50.4 | 10.8 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 4.0 | 50.7 | 10.1 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 4.8 | 52.8 | 10.6 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
46Mid-pack
Elite: receptions (81st). Concern: rec tds (6th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Ashtyn HawkinsBaylorJacquon GibsonMassachusetts· 85% simKevin Coleman Jr.Missouri· 85% simLewis BondBoston College· 82% sim
Receptions
Rec yards
Yards / catch
Fumbles lost
Long catch
Rec TDs
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Slot Technician
Runs precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Kevin Coleman Jr.’s 2025 season.
Kevin Coleman Jr.
75%match
#2
Elijah Metcalf
74%
#3
Jayshon Jackson
74%
#4
Jacob Cowing
All-Conference USANFL Rd 4
68%
#5
Stephon Robinson
73%
Matches Kevin on
Yards / reception
TD rate
Height
Differs from Kevin on
Weight (lower)
Reception volume (lower)
Through 5 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Joshua Harris’s path through Furman.
Joshua Harris
100%match
#2
Jamari Gassett
98%
#3
Jimmy Horn Jr.
NFL Rd 6
98%
#4
Money Parks
96%
#5
Javin Whatley
96%
Matches Joshua on
Yards per reception
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Elijah Metcalf's graduate season at Southern Miss (2025).
Elijah Metcalf
78%match
All-Conference USA
#2
Cam Ross
77%
#3
Malik Rutherford
73%
#4
TJ Sheffield
65%
#5
Trayvon Rudolph
All-MAC
64%
Matches Elijah on
Yards / reception
EPA / play (adj)
Total EPA (college ability)
Differs from Elijah on
TD rate (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Dave Aranda
Pass share
55.5%
510 pass / 409 run
Plays / game
76.6
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
5.0%
417 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Pass-leaning, fast tempo.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
1 coach2021
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2022
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2023
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2024
Dave Aranda
Baylor
2025
Dave Aranda
Baylor
Played his entire career under Dave Aranda.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownDesoto, TX
Height5'10"
Weight168 lb
Class4
PositionWR
Jersey6
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamBaylor
ConferenceBig 12
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Baylor | WR4 | #379 | #500 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big 12 |
| 2023 | Texas State | WR4 | #912 | #1104 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Sun Belt |
| 2022 | Texas State | WR4 | #1332 | #2026 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Sun Belt |
| 2021 | Texas State | WR4 | #2577 | #3351 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Sun Belt |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Baylor | Big 12 | WR | 4 | No. 6 | 5-10 | 168 lb | Desoto, TX |
| 2024 | Baylor | Big 12 | WR | 4 | No. 6 | 5-10 | 168 lb | Desoto, TX |
| 2023 | Texas State | Sun Belt | WR | 4 | No. 6 | 5-10 | 168 lb | Desoto, TX |
| 2022 | Texas State | Sun Belt | WR | 4 | No. 6 | 5-10 | 168 lb | Desoto, TX |
| 2021 | Texas State | Sun Belt | WR | 4 | No. 6 | 5-10 | 168 lb | Desoto, TX |