Mississippi State
2-0SEC · Jeff Lebby, year 3 (9-18) · Davis Wade Stadium · 61,337 · 48,771 avg in 2026
LastW 38–13 at Minnesota · Sat Sep 12 · Kamario Taylor 227 pass yds, 3 TD, 86 rush yds
Nextat South Carolina · Sat Sep 19 · 4:15 pm ET · Williams-Brice Stadium · South Carolina by 3.5 · series 7-10, last win 2016 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
All 70 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.51 EPA/play | 1 | 2 | 38 / 56 | 67.9 | 581 #21 FBS | 10.4 | 7 #9 FBS | 0 | 196.3 | 70 | 88.8 | 12.6 | 1.8 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.40 EPA/play | 24 | 2 | 27 | 165 #48 FBS | 6.1 | 2 #43 FBS | 30 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Threat · +0.78 EPA/play | 3 | 2 | 14 | 239 #11 FBS | 17.1 | 2 #24 FBS | 39 | |
Yards by week → Deep ThreatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. This week's matchup — WR III beats you over the top. Olugbode is the one who wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Season receipt Yards / reception16.8 80th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Anthony Evans III's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.41 EPA/play | 7 | 2 | 6 | 98 | 16.3 | 2 #24 FBS | 25 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.51 EPA/play | 13 | 2 | 8 | 77 | 9.6 | 2 #24 FBS | 30 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | |
| 9 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 2.5 #68 FBS | 1 | 0 | |
| 97 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 2 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80 | 2 | 3/4 | 75 | 13/13 | 22 | 52 |
2026 stat leaders · Mississippi State
through 2 games
2026 stat leaders · Mississippi StateAnthony Evans III leads Mississippi State with 239 receiving yards through 2 games.
How They Play · 2025Mississippi State fields a capable offense behind a porous defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Mississippi State reads strongest in explosive plays (top 38%) and rushing epa (top 43%); the crux lives in epa allowed, where Mississippi State sits at the 26th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · Mississippi State · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Mississippi State is worth +3.7 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 40th percentile of 133 programs
51% at home, 33% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (25–24 home, 13–26 away). Interval ±4.3.
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Mississippi State has beaten the number by +1.0 more at home than away over 72 games — inside the ±6.7 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Davis Wade Stadium seats 61,337 and has averaged 86% full (52,457, 29 games reported). Visitors cover a median 355 miles to get here since 2018 — 54th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 14% of the 2026 roster (15 of 106 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 56 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
Pass defense by zone
Pass-depth identity
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Mississippi State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.1% vs 65.2% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 71-play sample) — mid-pack, 8 of 18 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Mississippi State
Most similar programs · Mississippi StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Historical echo
Mississippi State’s slide has precedent — and 1 of the 4 closest kept falling.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Conditions
71°F average kickoff temp; 5% of games had measurable precipitation; 5 mph average wind.
Based on 83 home games with weather data.