Next game: vs Vanderbilt
Mississippi State’s best edge on Vanderbilt is staying on schedule
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Mississippi State offense against Vanderbilt defense
Vanderbilt offense against Mississippi State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vertical Passer · +0.33 EPA/play | 1 | 6 | 104 / 159 | 65.4 | 1460 | 9.2 | 17 #19 FBS | 4 | 172.8 | 60 | 64.8 | 8.8 | 9.1 | |
Yards by week → Vertical passerElite arm talent, pushing downfield. Completion rate is the variable. 159 pass attempts and 46 carries in 6 games. About as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Taylor pushes it downfield on every look. Brown is the one who extends plays on the move until something opens up. Season receipt Yards / attempt9.7 95th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Completion %66.9% 73th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kamario Taylor's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| -0.04 EPA/play | 15 | 5 | 44 / 74 | 59.5 | 390 | 5.3 | 1 | 2 | 102.8 | 44 | 46.9 | 3.4 | 10.8 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| +0.54 EPA/play | 17 | 1 | 12 / 15 | 80 | 97 | 6.5 | 0 | 0 | 134.3 | — | 74 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · +0.32 EPA/play | 24 | 7 | 108 | 563 #61 FBS | 5.2 | 3 | 43 | 12.3 | 12.3 | |
Yards by week → WorkhorseBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. Starter — 108 carries and 13 catches in 7 games, more touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Bothwell just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Cobb is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Weight230 lb 96th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate2.8% bottom 25th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Fluff Bothwell's full player page | ||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.14 EPA/play | 6 | 8 | 58 | 230 | 4.0 | 0 | 48 | 22.8 | 12.3 | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. 58 carries and 11 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Wilson wins in space out of the backfield. Cobb is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Receiving share15.9% 83th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate0.0% bottom 5th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kolin Wilson's full player page | ||||||||||
| +0.20 EPA/play | 21 | 4 | 20 | 162 | 8.1 | 2 | 57 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| +0.06 EPA/play | 5 | 4 | 24 | 87 | 3.6 | 1 | 20 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.55 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 56 | 666 #27 FBS | 11.9 | 5 #39 FBS | 48 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Money-downRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. lives on the sticks and moves the chains Impact starter — 56 catches and 4 carries in 8 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR III wins underneath on volume and route precision. Koger is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume56 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Yards / reception12.6 bottom 40th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Anthony Evans III's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.53 EPA/play | 13 | 8 | 23 | 376 | 16.3 | 6 #23 FBS | 43 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Magee moves the chains on third down. Koger is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception15.9 75th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate26.1% 99th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Sanfrisco Magee's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.54 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 24 | 320 | 13.3 | 2 | 70 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 24 catches in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Marquis Johnson's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.19 EPA/play | 7 | 8 | 15 | 214 | 14.3 | 4 #70 FBS | 43 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Ragins moves the chains on third down. Koger is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception16.2 78th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate26.7% 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Zion Ragins's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.25 EPA/play | 87 | 5 | 8 | 69 | 8.6 | 1 | 12 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman View Sam West's full player page | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 9 | 8 | 25 | 9 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. Starter — 25 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jaray Bledsoe's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 42 | 7 | 22 | 8 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 22 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View DJ Reed's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 43 | 8 | 18 | 8 | 4.5 | 3 | 3 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 18 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.0% 81th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Will Whitson's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 97 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jayson Jenkins's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 35 | 8 | 13 | 6 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight320 lb 90th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kalvin Dinkins's full player page | |||||||
| 14 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 3 | |
| 93 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 7 | 48 | 23 | 25 | 2.5 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 48 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2025 class View Tyler Lockhart's full player page | |||||||||
| Versatile End | 4 | 8 | 41 | 18 | 23 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Impact starter — 41 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Amaree Williams's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | — | 6 | 37 | 11 | 26 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 37 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume37 bottom 49th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate2.7% bottom 18th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Fatt Forrest's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 10 | 4 | 28 | 7 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume28 bottom 29th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jalen Smith's full player page | |||||||||
| 7 | 3 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 32 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 5 | 7 | 42 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — 42 tackles in 7 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume42 81th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jardin Gilbert's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | 20 | 8 | 41 | 9 #4 FBS | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Perimeter tacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Starter — 41 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume41 99th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Amarien Jefferson's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 15 | 8 | 38 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — 38 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume38 71th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Marcus Williams's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 3 | 8 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 36 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Kendel Dolby's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 1 | 8 | 27 | 7 #20 FBS | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Ball hawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 27 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate25.9% 88th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kelley Jones's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 21 | 8 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2026 class View Dre Riley's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 5 | 21 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.8% bottom 35th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Isaac Smith's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 7 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2026 class View Bralan Womack's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 28 | 8 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Tanner Duke Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| 8 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 80 | 7 | 8/10 | 80 | 25/25 | 49 | 52 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 8 | 8 | 29 | 1226 | 42.3 | 62 | 10 | 4 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
Biggest plays from Mississippi State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Mississippi State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 7:09 · Mississippi State down 7, ties itFluff Bothwell runs 4 yards for a touchdownMissouri at Mississippi State, week 4Q4, 7:09 · Mississippi State 24, Missouri 24▲23%Mississippi State’s chance to win, 30% to 53%▲23%Mississippi State’s chance to win, 30% to 53%F.Bothwell rush middle for 4 yards gain to the Mizzou00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q1, 0:22 · Mississippi State up 4Fluff Bothwell runs 5 yards for a touchdownMississippi State at Minnesota, week 2Q1, 0:22 · Mississippi State 14, Minnesota 3▲23%Mississippi State’s chance to win, 62% to 85%▲23%Mississippi State’s chance to win, 62% to 85%F.Bothwell rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MINN00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
CBS Sports College Football - Q4, 3:57 · Mississippi State breaks the tieKamario Taylor finds Sanfrisco Magee for a 24-yard touchdownMissouri at Mississippi State, week 4Q4, 3:57 · Mississippi State 31, Missouri 243:57Go-ahead touchdown for Mississippi State with 3:57 left3:57Go-ahead touchdown for Mississippi State with 3:57 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Mississippi State with 3:57 leftK.Taylor pass complete deep right to S.Magee caught at Mizzou00, for 24 yards to the Mizzou00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q1, 13:20 · Mississippi State tiedMississippi State turns it overAlabama at Mississippi State, week 5Q1, 13:20 · Mississippi State 0, Alabama 07Mississippi State’s turnover led to a touchdown7Mississippi State’s turnover led to a touchdownMississippi State’s turnover led to a touchdownK.Taylor sacked for loss of 9 yards to the State48 (L.Simmons), fumble by K.Taylor recovered by Bama L.Simmons at State48, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL UPHELD▶Watch from this play
Q3, 2:53 · Missouri breaks the tieAustin Simmons finds Cayden Lee for a 28-yard touchdownMissouri at Mississippi State, week 4Q3, 2:53 · Missouri 24, Mississippi State 17Go-ahead score for Missouri in the third quarterGo-ahead score for Missouri in the third quarterA.Simmons pass complete deep right to C.Lee caught at State02, for 28 yards to the State00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q3, 10:13 · Mississippi State down 9Kamario Taylor finds Marquis Johnson for a 23-yard touchdownMississippi State at South Carolina, week 3Q3, 10:13 · Mississippi State 21, South Carolina 23Mississippi State cut the deficit to 2 in the third quarterMississippi State cut the deficit to 2 in the third quarterK.Taylor pass complete deep left to M.Johnson caught at USC00, for 23 yards to the USC00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Mississippi State lost to Alabama after being 67% to win; the closest win was at South Carolina, down to 3%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Mississippi State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Mississippi State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Mississippi StateAnthony Evans III leads Mississippi State with 666 receiving yards through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+18 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Mississippi State fields a limited offense behind a porous, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Mississippi State reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 27%) and rushing EPA allowed (top 31%); the crux lives in red-zone finish, where Mississippi State sits at the 11th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Mississippi State is worth +3.7 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 41st percentile of 133 programs
50% at home, 33% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (26-26 home, 14-28 away). Interval ±4.2.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Mississippi State has beaten the number by −1.7 more at home than away over 101 games. That is inside the ±5.7 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Davis Wade Stadium seats 61,337 and has averaged 86% full (52,853, 32 games reported). Visitors cover a median 355 miles to get here since 2018 — 54th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 14% of the 2026 roster (15 of 110 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 59 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Deep threatBrenen Thompson is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks, and he catches those deep shots at a plus rate.
- Money downBrenen Thompson is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- Deep threatAyden Williams is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Fluff Bothwell and Kolin Wilson split the carries (106/163 vs 57/163) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Anthony Evans III (WR) and Sam West (TE) split the targets (70/85 vs 15/85) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Mississippi State actually scores
35th percentile quality, 65th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Mississippi State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 65th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 73rd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Mississippi State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
66th percentile success on standard downs, 59th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Mississippi State by half
1st-half offense ranks 41st percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 44th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Mississippi State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.10; 27th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.64 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Mississippi State’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.5% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 216-play sample) — mid-pack, 93 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Mississippi State’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (69.0% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 230-play sample) — mid-pack, 126 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
62% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~48% league baseline.
5 of 8 forced fumbles recovered; 4 of 9 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
6% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~18% league average, and due for more.
2 interceptions of 34 disrupted passes (32 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
61 penalties committed, 61 drawn on opponents — a near-even trade all season.
564 penalty yards committed vs. 570 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Mississippi State
Most similar programs · Mississippi StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Mississippi State’s slide has precedent — and 1 of the 4 closest kept falling.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 58°, between 46° and 69° in about 7 in 10 games (34 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 64°, and 8 in 10 ran between 46° and 80° (46 of 49 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.