cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Reese Poffenbarger /North Texas

Reese Poffenbarger

QB · North Texas · Sr · #7

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

36 PASS YDS · 0 PASS TD · 20 RUSH YDS

2026 TRANSFERTransferred North Texas → Akron for 2026

Where He Ended Up · Transfer

Transferred to Akron

2025North Texas
2026Akron

QB · NORTH TEXAS · AMERICAN ATHLETIC

Reese Poffenbarger

  • 4
  • #7
  • 6-0 | 210 lb
  • Middletown, MD

CFB Zeitgeist Score

37

Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by completion % at the 97th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#150

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP QB AWARD

Davey O'Brien

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R05 · Part-time starter

Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Development Trajectory · passing yards

2024–2025
20.02024
36.02025

+80%

Up 80% from first season to most-recent.

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#1926 national
CFB
College
2 teams
2024–2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionQB
Class4
Jersey7
Measurements6-0 | 210 lb
HometownMiddletown, MD
Primary teamNorth Texas

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 1926 recruit
Composite rating 0.8283 HighSchool
Signed with Old Dominion 2020
Origin Middletown Middletown, MD, USA
Class Profile Context
2020 3-star | 0.8283 No. 1926 recruit | HighSchool | Old Dominion

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 4 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Akron 2026
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Jan 16, 2026
Season Move Context
2026 North Texas -> Akron 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate
2025 Miami -> North Texas 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate
2024 UAlbany -> Miami 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate
2022 Old Dominion -> -- 3-star | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#150Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#80Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to Old Dominion

Composite

0.8283

#1926 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Reese Poffenbarger

Fan sentiment ·

Belief Meter

50

Mixed Sentiment

Sample 1 mentions
Confidence BELOW-FLOOR

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence mapbearishbullishheatedcalmOwn fans: 1 mentions · belief +0 · "Report: Well-traveled QB Reese Poffenbarger signs with Akron &nbsp;&nbsp; Hustle"Own fansNational: 1 mentions · belief +0 · "The cumulative link to the preseason rankings can be found [here]( https://www.r"National
  • Own fans · n=1
  • National · n=1

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Reese Poffenbarger

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

Signature Story

Awaiting candidate metric

He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the passing totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 2g
36Pass yards
0Pass TDs
0INT
Per game
18Pass yards
0Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
234Pass yards
0Pass TDs
0INT

To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 36): needs 269.5/game over remaining 11.

To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 36): needs 360.4/game over remaining 11.

To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 0): needs 2.3/game over remaining 11.

To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 0): needs 2.7/game over remaining 11.

To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 0): needs 3.2/game over remaining 11.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Reese Poffenbarger's story is about how role and output meet each other. For North Texas, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #150 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 8.1% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Transfer path 4 portal moves

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

QB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Pass yards 36 0 TD | 0 INT | #322/382 (16th pct)
Completion rate 71.4% 5/7 completions | #57/383 (85th pct)
Yards/attempt 5.1 Explosiveness through the air | #306/382 (20th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Highly efficient | Pocket-leaning against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.

Highly efficientPocket-leaning

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Passing Efficiency

CMP
5 22nd
ATT
7 24th
CMP%
71.4% 85th
Y/A
5.1 20th

Passing Production

YDS
36 16th
TD
0 30th
INT
0 100th

Rushing

CAR
4 24th
YDS
20 39th
YPC
5.0 77th
TD
0 44th

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 2 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppCMP/ATTYDSTDINTYPAQBRNote
Wk 1W 51-0vs Lamar0/20000.00.7
Wk 3W 59-10vs Washington State5/536007.285.1Season-high 36 yds
Total5/736003.642.9
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2024Miami10-3HC: Mario Cristobal · Balanced, fast tempo
2025North Texas12-2HC: Eric Morris · Balanced
SeasonTeam
2025North Texas5771.4%365.100114.6----
2024Miami6785.7%202.900109.7----
Career2 loaded seasons111478.6%564.000112.2----
SeasonTeam
2025North Texas4205.00--
2024Miami5122.40--
Career2 loaded seasons9323.60--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Passing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.

Role share

How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Rush impact 20 0 rush TD | #248/408 (39th pct)
Usage 8.1% 10.3% pass share | 5.9% rush share | #290/428 (32nd pct)
Passing WEPA -- Adjusted value feed still loading
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Passing Passing yards 36 #322/382 16th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Pass TD 0 #285/407 30th pct Scoringvs FBS QB
Passing Completions 5 #298/383 22nd pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Completion % 71.4% #57/383 85th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Passing Yards / attempt 5.1 #306/382 20th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Rushing Rushing yards 20 #248/408 39th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Usage Role share 8.1% #290/428 32nd pct Share of team offensevs FBS QB
Passing Attempts 7 #309/407 24th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Interceptions 0 #1/407 100th pct Turnoversvs FBS QB
Rushing Rushing LONG 12 #261/391 34th pct Metricvs FBS QB
Rushing Yards / carry 5.0 #93/407 77th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Rushing Carries 4 #312/408 24th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Rushing Rush TD 0 #230/408 44th pct Scoringvs FBS QB
Usage Pass share 10.3% #304/428 29th pct Air-game usagevs FBS QB
Usage 3rd-down usage 10.0% #303/428 29th pct Money-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage 1st-down usage 9.2% #264/428 39th pct Early-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage Passing-down usage 8.3% #318/428 26th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS QB
Usage Standard-down usage 8.0% #282/428 34th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS QB
Usage 2nd-down usage 6.3% #316/428 26th pct Middle-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage Rush share 5.9% #255/428 41st pct Ground-game usagevs FBS QB
Ball Security Fumbles lost 1 #69/258 74th pct Turnoversvs FBS QB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 2 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

YDS/gTD/gYPAINT/g
Home2g18.00.03.60.0

Win vs Loss

YDS/gTD/gYPAINT/g
Wins2g18.00.03.60.0

First half vs Second half

YDS/gTD/gYPAINT/g
Weeks 1-72g18.00.03.60.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

37Mid-pack
8 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: interceptions (99th). Strength: completion % (97th). Concern: pass tds (0th).

Interceptions#1 / 183 · 99th pct
0pass
Completion %#6 / 183 · 97th pct
71.4%pass
Fumbles lost#32 / 174 · 66th pct
1fumb
Rush yards#135 / 183 · 27th pct
20rush
Rush TDs#150 / 183 · 9th pct
0rush
Yards / att#176 / 183 · 4th pct
5.1pass
Pass yards#184 / 183 · 0th pct
36pass
Pass TDs#184 / 183 · 0th pct
0pass

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Advanced Savant · QB · 2024

Percentile Card

Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback
awaiting
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics
Reese PoffenbargerNorth TexasNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 58% simDrake LindseyMinnesota· 55% simCade KlubnikClemson· 52% sim
Interceptions
99
Poffenbarger
44
Vattiato
56
Lindsey
56
Klubnik
Completion %
97
Poffenbarger
41
Vattiato
56
Lindsey
73
Klubnik
Fumbles lost
66
Poffenbarger
66
Vattiato
91
Lindsey
66
Klubnik
Rush yards
27
Poffenbarger
27
Vattiato
1
Lindsey
42
Klubnik
Rush TDs
9
Poffenbarger
39
Vattiato
59
Lindsey
59
Klubnik
Yards / att
4
Poffenbarger
13
Vattiato
16
Lindsey
63
Klubnik
Pass yards
0
Poffenbarger
57
Vattiato
61
Lindsey
78
Klubnik
Pass TDs
0
Poffenbarger
64
Vattiato
72
Lindsey
64
Klubnik

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

DNA Match awaiting data — similarity scores compute once season stats clear the volume gate for this position cohort.

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Eric Morris

Pass share

48.5%

475 pass / 504 run

Plays / game

69.9

14 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

5.9%

321 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025

1 coach
2024
Eric Morris
North Texas
2025
Eric Morris
North Texas

Played his entire career under Eric Morris.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownMiddletown, MD
Height6'0"
Weight210 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey7

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 Miami QB4 #150 #80 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | ACC
2021 Old Dominion QB4 #2357 #2552 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W20 snapshot | Conference USA

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 North Texas American Athletic QB 4 No. 7 | 6-0 | 210 lb | Middletown, MD
2024 Miami ACC QB 4 No. 7 | 6-0 | 210 lb | Middletown, MD
2021 Old Dominion Conference USA QB 4 No. 7 | 6-0 | 210 lb | Middletown, MD