CFB Zeitgeist Score
49
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 50th percentile.
Noah Rogers
On Trialas of 2026-06-22
Noah Rogers arrives at NC State with a new fit to prove and an old chapter behind him.
413REC YDS31REC2REC TD
4★ · NATIONAL RECRUIT
No.52
recruiting national rank
NC State fans are litigating his worthiness — the eye test against the résumé.
low confidence2 sources
Minority viewA vocal minority sees it the other way.
Read the story so far
AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data
Where He Ended Up · Transfer
Transferred to Alabama
2025NC State
2026Alabama
WR · NC STATE · ACC
Noah Rogers
- 2
- #5
- 6-2 | 205 lb
- Rolesville, NC
Heisman Heat
#3740
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
NC State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4-star | 0.9715 | No. 52 recruit | HighSchool | Ohio State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | NC State -> Alabama | 4-star | 0.9300 | Immediate |
| 2024 | Ohio State -> NC State | 4-star | 0.9300 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Ohio State
Composite
0.9715
#52 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Noah Rogers
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
56
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=18
- Rivals · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Noah Rogers
Only 2 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Yards per reception
13.3
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #203 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 62nd
Why it matters
#203 of 531 All FBS WRs at 13.3 yards per reception (31 catches).
Vs cohort
This player 13.3 (62th)
HIGH · n=31 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving yards (total)#291 / 531
- Receiving TDs#302 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 10 vs Georgia Tech — 72 ypr
Result W 48-36
The week the volume broke through — put up 72 yds vs Georgia Tech.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 11g
413Rec yards
31Receptions
2Rec TDs
Per game
37.5Rec yards
3Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
488.1Rec yards
37Receptions
2Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 413): needs 143.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 413): needs 293.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 31): needs 14.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 31): needs 24.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 2): needs 3/game over remaining 2.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 2): needs 4/game over remaining 2.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Noah Rogers's story is about how role and output meet each other. For NC State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Receiving weapon against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
31 76th
YDS
413 75th
YPR
13.3 62nd
TD
2 75th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 11 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 24-17vs East Carolina | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 2 | W 35-31vs Virginia | 2 | 38 | 19.0 | 1 | 27 | |
| Wk 3 | W 34-24@ Wake Forest | 4 | 52 | 13.0 | 0 | 20 | |
| Wk 4 | L 33-45@ Duke | 3 | 48 | 16.0 | 0 | 25 | |
| Wk 5 | L 21-23vs Virginia Tech | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 | 16 | |
| Wk 6 | W 56-10vs Campbell | 3 | 62 | 20.7 | 0 | 48 | |
| Wk 9 | L 34-53@ Pittsburgh | 3 | 26 | 8.7 | 1 | 15 | |
| Wk 10 | W 48-36vs Georgia Tech | 7 | 72 | 10.3 | 0 | 17 | Season-high 72 yds |
| Wk 12 | L 7-41@ Miami | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 14 | W 42-19vs North Carolina | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 | 24 | |
| Bowl | W 31-7vs Memphis | 2 | 37 | 18.5 | 0 | 21 | |
| Total | 31 | 413 | 13.9 | 2 | 48 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2025NC State8-5HC: Dave Doeren · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | NC State | 31 | 413 | 13.3 | 2 | -- |
| Career | 1 loaded season | 31 | 413 | 13.3 | 2 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 31 | #268/1110 | 76th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 413 | #281/1107 | 75th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 2 | #281/1111 | 75th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 13.3 | #420/1106 | 62nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 13.2% | #311/1137 | 73rd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 48 | #298/1105 | 73rd pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 10.6% | #202/1137 | 82nd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 9.4% | #142/1137 | 88th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 8.3% | #345/1137 | 70th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 6.6% | #307/1137 | 73rd pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 4.8% | #411/1137 | 64th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 4.3% | #509/1137 | 55th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #391/1137 | 66th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 2.7 | 39.1 | 15.6 | 0.1 |
| Road4g | 3.0 | 34.8 | 11.1 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins7g | 3.1 | 44.3 | 15.1 | 0.1 |
| Losses4g | 2.2 | 25.8 | 11.8 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 2.4 | 38.9 | 16.1 | 0.1 |
| Weeks 8+4g | 3.5 | 35.2 | 10.1 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
49Mid-pack
Production sits in the middle of the position cohort across the board.
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Noah RogersNC StateSean WilsonDelaware· 72% simTrent WalkerOregon State· 72% simRyan DavisUtah· 72% sim
Yards / catch
Long catch
Receptions
Rec yards
Rec TDs
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Possession Receiver
Reliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to John Neider’s 2025 season.
John Neider
82%match
#2
Tejhaun Palmer
NFL Rd 6
79%
#3
Rashee Rice
NFL Rd 2 · Pk 24
73%
#4
Hudson Clement
78%
#5
Austin Watkins
73%
Matches John on
Yards / reception
TD rate
Total EPA (college ability)
Differs from John on
EPA / play (adj) (lower)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Joshua Harris’s path through Furman.
Joshua Harris
98%match
#2
Malcolm Gillie
98%
#3
John Neider
97%
#4
Jalen McDonald
97%
#5
Jevin Frett
95%
Matches Joshua on
Yards per reception
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to John Neider's sophomore season at UConn (2025).
John Neider
87%match
#2
Joseph Williams
76%
#3
Jalen McMillan
NFL Rd 3 · Pk 29
76%
#4
Jordan King
74%
#5
Tejhaun Palmer
All-AACNFL Rd 6
74%
Matches John on
Yards / reception
TD rate
Total EPA (college ability)
Differs from John on
EPA / play (adj) (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Dave Doeren
Pass share
49.7%
411 pass / 416 run
Plays / game
63.6
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.5%
307 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2025
1 coach2025
Dave Doeren
NC State
Played his entire career under Dave Doeren.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownRolesville, NC
Height6'2"
Weight205 lb
Class2
PositionWR
Jersey5
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamNC State
ConferenceACC
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | NC State | WR2 | #3740 | #3818 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | ACC |
| 2023 | Ohio State | WR2 | #2371 | #1780 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Big Ten |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | NC State | ACC | WR | 2 | No. 5 | 6-2 | 205 lb | Rolesville, NC |
| 2024 | NC State | ACC | WR | 2 | No. 5 | 6-2 | 205 lb | Rolesville, NC |
| 2023 | Ohio State | Big Ten | WR | 2 | No. 5 | 6-2 | 205 lb | Rolesville, NC |