Arizona: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2024–now

Brent Brennan Steady

Brent Brennan moved Arizona from National Program III to National Program II in 3 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

vs. Arizona State

+2.2 pts over 3 seasons · top 24% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Deion Sanders’s Colorado run (2023–now)

9th-best Arizona tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Jedd Fisch (2021–2023).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2024	2025	2026
Record & result
Record	4-8	9-4	6-2
Postseason	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#85	#50	#42
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	57.0	49.3	51.7
Coordinators
OC	Dino Babers	Seth Doege	Seth Doege
DC	Duane Akina	Danny Gonzales	Danny Gonzales
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	17	64	84
Defense	18	78	89
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	50.6	45.5	48.6
Red-zone pass%	44.3	49.6	50.7
4th-down go%opp. territory	24.3	36.0	28.6

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-10.7 pts

#152 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-3.3 pts

#118 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-13

#22 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 236 lbs

across 62 of 76 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+0.6 lbs

#221 of 255 · bottom quarter

Avg. class year

#160 of 255 · middle half

Top states: CA (20), TX (9), AZ (7), GA (6), IL (3)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

56.2

position-weighted

Talent lost

61.7

position-weighted

Net

-5.5

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Braedyn Locke (QB) from Wisconsin

Biggest loss: Brayden Dorman (QB) to the portal

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Dino Babers → Seth Doege · 2025

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 50.6% → 45.5% (-5.0 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 56% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Duane Akina → Danny Gonzales · 2025

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

188 lbs

5′10″ avg · #761 of 767 · bottom quarter

Running back

199 lbs

5′10″ avg · #642 of 791 · bottom quarter

Wide receiver

188 lbs

6′1″ avg · #601 of 791 · bottom quarter

Tight end

234 lbs

6′4″ avg · #680 of 731 · bottom quarter

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

311 lbs

6′5″ avg · #311 of 779 · middle half

D-line

273 lbs

6′3″ avg · #604 of 753 · bottom quarter

Linebacker

226 lbs

6′1″ avg · #499 of 772 · middle half

Cornerback

189 lbs

6′0″ avg · #472 of 771 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Tight end via the portal

71%

#21 of 188 stints

Buys Edge via the portal

73%

#30 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2025: Lost to SMU 19-24 Trust & Will Holiday Bowl

8 NFL Draft picks: Tetairoa McMillan (2025), Jonah Savaiinaea (2025), Tyler Loop (2025), Jacory Croskey-Merritt (2025), Treydan Stukes (2026), Genesis Smith (2026), Dalton Johnson (2026), Michael Dansby (2026)

1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Tetairoa Mcmillan (2024)

+2.2

19-14

2021–2023

Jedd Fisch Steady

Jedd Fisch held the Wildcats at National Program III for 3 seasons.

2021 offense ranked in the 5th percentile nationally — historically bad

vs. Arizona State

+1.9 pts over 3 seasons · top 25% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike MacIntyre’s San José State run (2010–2012)

11th-best Arizona tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Kevin Sumlin (2018–2020) · succeeded by Brent Brennan (2024–now).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2021	2022	2023
Record & result
Record	1-11	5-7	10-3
Postseason	—	—	W bowl
Recruiting rank	#75	#22	#40
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	51.0	56.6	53.8
Coordinators
OC	Brennan Carroll	Brennan Carroll	Brennan Carroll
DC	Don Brown	Johnny Nansen	Johnny Nansen
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	5	67	94
Defense	39	8	58
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	49.2	53.4	51.8
Red-zone pass%	49.0	51.9	43.4
4th-down go%opp. territory	28.3	42.1	19.4

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+2.5 pts

#100 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-17.8 pts

#173 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-39

#116 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 234 lbs

across 23 of 32 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+10.2 lbs

#16 of 255 · top quarter

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: AZ (7), CA (5), FL (3), LA (1), MI (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

51.9

position-weighted

Talent lost

56.5

position-weighted

Net

-4.6

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Jayden de Laura (QB) from Washington State

Biggest loss: Kevin Doyle (QB) to the portal

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

DC: Don Brown → Johnny Nansen · 2022

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

209 lbs

6′2″ avg · #479 of 767 · middle half

Running back

215 lbs

5′11″ avg · #123 of 791 · top quarter

Wide receiver

189 lbs

6′1″ avg · #568 of 791 · middle half

Tight end

246 lbs

6′5″ avg · #340 of 731 · middle half

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

313 lbs

6′5″ avg · #217 of 779 · middle half

D-line

272 lbs

6′4″ avg · #629 of 753 · bottom quarter

Linebacker

232 lbs

6′1″ avg · #218 of 772 · middle half

Cornerback

192 lbs

6′1″ avg · #255 of 771 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Quarterback via the portal

67%

#16 of 206 stints

Buys Athlete via the portal

14%

#32 of 146 stints

Grows Running back from high school

75%

#162 of 208 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2023: Beat Oklahoma 38-24 Valero Alamo Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Jordan Morgan (2024), Jacob Cowing (2024), Tanner McLachlan (2024)

+1.9

16-21

2018–2020

Kevin Sumlin Steady

Kevin Sumlin slid Arizona from National Program II to National Program III in 3 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

vs. Arizona State

−4.9 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 37% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike Sherman’s Texas A&M run (2008–2011)

8th-best Arizona tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Rich Rodriguez (2012–2017) · succeeded by Jedd Fisch (2021–2023).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2018	2019	2020
Record & result
Record	5-7	4-8	0-5
Postseason	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#61	#54	#62
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	44.1	48.3	50.5
Coordinators
OC	Noel Mazzone	Noel Mazzone	Noel Mazzone
DC	Marcel Yates	Marcel Yates / Chuck Cecil	Paul Rhoads
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	62	43	14
Defense	34	16	22
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	39.1	46.5	49.2
Red-zone pass%	39.7	50.6	42.9
4th-down go%opp. territory	29.7	29.0	23.5

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-11.0 pts

#152 of 208 · middle half

Defense vs. talent

-26.9 pts

#191 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tackle from high school

100%

#198 of 223 stints

Grows Safety from high school

100%

#201 of 218 stints

3 NFL Draft picks: PJ Johnson (2019), Roy Lopez (2021), Gary Brightwell (2021)

−4.9

9-20

2012–2017

Rich Rodriguez Steady

Rich Rodriguez held Arizona at National Program II for 6 seasons.

2017 offense ranked in the 95th percentile nationally — elite

vs. Arizona State

−1.9 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 37% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bob Toledo’s UCLA run (1996–2002)

5th-best Arizona tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Tim Kish (2011) · succeeded by Kevin Sumlin (2018–2020).

System Shift, on departure

Season	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017
Record & result
Record	8-5	8-5	10-4	7-6	3-9	7-6
Postseason	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	—	L bowl
Recruiting rank	#42	#44	#31	#43	#48	#45
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	49.7	37.2	49.5	47.0	37.5	32.5
Coordinators
OC	—	—	Calvin Magee / Rod Smith	Calvin Magee / Rod Smith	Calvin Magee / Rod Smith	Calvin Magee / Rod Smith
DC	—	—	Jeff Casteel	Jeff Casteel	Marcel Yates	Marcel Yates
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	94	69	53	76	34	95
Defense	12	76	56	15	14	11
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	44.9	32.4	42.3	42.1	31.5	25.6
Red-zone pass%	42.4	29.4	45.9	40.8	23.0	20.2
4th-down go%opp. territory	34.9	42.9	33.3	36.0	56.0	21.6

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+14.0 pts

#53 of 208 · top quarter

Defense vs. talent

-40.5 pts

#204 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

DC: Jeff Casteel → Marcel Yates · 2016The defense slipped

2-season window either side.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2012: Beat Nevada 49-48 Gildan New Mexico Bowl2013: Beat Boston College 42-19 AdvoCare V100 BOWL2014: Lost to Boise State 30-38 Bowl2015: Beat New Mexico 45-37 Gildan New Mexico Bowl2017: Lost to Purdue 35-38 Foster Farms Bowl

6 NFL Draft picks: Ka'Deem Carey (2014), Shaquille Richardson (2014), Marquis Flowers (2014), Will Parks (2016), Scooby Wright III (2016), Dane Cruikshank (2018)

−1.9

43-35

2011

Tim Kish Short tenure

Averaged a 64% pass rate — among the most pass-heavy stretches in FBS since 2004

vs. Arizona State

3-3

2004–2011

Mike Stoops Steady

Mike Stoops moved Arizona from National Program II to National Program I in 8 seasons.

Swung 18.8 points of pass rate — #44 of 449 FBS coaching stints since 2004

vs. Arizona State

+6.2 pts over 8 seasons · top 30% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bruce Snyder’s Arizona State run (1992–2000)

4th-best Arizona tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed John Mackovic (2001–2003) · succeeded by Tim Kish (2011).

Season	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Record & result
Record	3-8	3-8	6-6	5-7	8-5	8-5	7-6	1-5
Postseason	—	—	—	—	W bowl	L bowl	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#41	#23	#19	#59	#27	#50	#58	#48
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	44.7	49.1	48.4	62.4	45.0	53.0	54.6	63.5
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	20	53	5	31	77	18	85	80
Defense	53	63	71	68	50	75	65	14
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	34.7	42.6	46.9	57.4	39.3	48.0	51.5	64.0
Red-zone pass%	28.3	50.0	43.3	56.7	32.0	50.7	43.6	47.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	40.9	33.3	18.8	27.1	20.0	36.4	16.2	33.3

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Kicker from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2008: Beat BYU 31-21 Bowl2009: Lost to Nebraska 0-33 Bowl2010: Lost to Oklahoma State 10-36 Valero Alamo Bowl

19 NFL Draft picks: Kili Lefotu (2006), Chris Henry (2007), Nick Folk (2007), Michael Johnson (2007), Syndric Steptoe (2007), Antoine Cason (2008), Spencer Larsen (2008), Wilrey Fontenot (2008) + 11 more

+6.2

41-50

2001–2003

John Mackovic Steady≈

John Mackovic slid the Wildcats from Power Program III to National Program I in 3 seasons.

vs. Arizona State

−13.5 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 5% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: John Blake’s Oklahoma run (1996–1998)

2nd-best Arizona tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Dick Tomey (1987–2000) · succeeded by Mike Stoops (2004–2011).

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tackle from high school

100%

#198 of 223 stints

3 NFL Draft picks: Lance Briggs (2003), Bobby Wade (2003), Makoa Freitas (2003)

−13.5

10-18

1987–2000

Dick Tomey Steady

Dick Tomey moved the Wildcats from National Program I to Power Program III in 14 seasons.

vs. Arizona State

+6.1 pts over 14 seasons · bottom 25% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Pat Fitzgerald’s Northwestern run (2006–2022)

1st-best Arizona tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Larry Smith (1980–1986) · succeeded by John Mackovic (2001–2003).

Season	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000
Record & result
Record	4-4-3	7-4	8-4	7-5	4-7	6-5-1	10-2	8-4	6-5	5-6	7-5	12-1	6-6	5-6
Postseason	—	—	W bowl	L bowl	—	L bowl	W bowl	L bowl	—	—	W bowl	W bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1989: Beat NC State 17-10 Bowl1990: Lost to Syracuse 0-28 Bowl1992: Lost to Baylor 15-20 Bowl1993: Beat Miami 29-0 Bowl1994: Lost to Utah 13-16 Bowl1997: Beat New Mexico 20-14 Bowl1998: Beat Nebraska 23-20 Bowl

39 NFL Draft picks: Joe Tofflemire (1989), Derek Hill (1989), Brad Henke (1989), Rob Woods (1989), Chris Singleton (1990), Anthony Smith (1990), Glenn Parker (1990), John Nies (1990) + 31 more

+6.1

95-64-4

1980–1986

Larry Smith Steady

Larry Smith moved Arizona from National Program III to National Program I in 7 seasons.

vs. Arizona State

+7.3 pts over 7 seasons · top 26% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Steve Sarkisian’s Texas run (2021–now)

3rd-best Arizona tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Tony Mason (1977–1979) · succeeded by Dick Tomey (1987–2000).

Season	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986
Record & result
Record	5-6	6-5	6-4-1	7-3-1	7-4	8-3-1	9-3
Postseason	—	—	—	—	—	L bowl	W bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1985: Tied Georgia 13-13 Bowl1986: Beat North Carolina 30-21 Bowl

11 NFL Draft picks: Robert Cobb (1981), Mike Robinson (1981), Chris Schultz (1983), Ricky Hunley (1984), Randy Robbins (1984), John Kaiser (1984), Vance Johnson (1985), Max Zendejas (1986) + 3 more

+7.3

48-28-3

1977–1979

Tony Mason Steady

Tony Mason slid the Wildcats from National Program II to National Program III in 3 seasons.

vs. Arizona State

−0.5 pts over 3 seasons · top 36% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Ron Cooper’s Louisville run (1995–1997)

10th-best Arizona tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Jim Young (1973–1976) · succeeded by Larry Smith (1980–1986).

Season	1977	1978	1979
Record & result
Record	5-7	5-6	6-5-1
Postseason	—	—	L bowl
Recruiting rank	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—

Postseason detail1979: Lost to Pittsburgh 10-16 Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Cleveland Crosby (1980), Mark Streeter (1980), Larry Heater (1980)

−0.5

16-18-1

1973–1976

Jim Young Steady

Jim Young moved the Wildcats from Regional Program I to National Program II in 4 seasons.

vs. Arizona State

+7.8 pts over 4 seasons · top 8% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Dirk Koetter’s Boise State run (1998–2000)

7th-best Arizona tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Bob Weber (1969–1972) · succeeded by Tony Mason (1977–1979).

3 NFL Draft picks: Mike Dawson (1976), Theo Bell (1976), Scott Piper (1976)

+7.8

31-13

1969–1972

Bob Weber Steady

Bob Weber moved the Wildcats from Regional Program II to Regional Program I in 4 seasons.

vs. Arizona State

+2.8 pts over 4 seasons · top 21% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Art Briles’s Houston run (2003–2007)

14th-best Arizona tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Darrell Mudra (1967–1968) · succeeded by Jim Young (1973–1976).

9 NFL Draft picks: Ricky Stevenson (1970), Ron Gardin (1970), Bill McKinley (1971), Mark Arneson (1972), Charles McKee (1972), Jackie Wallace (1973), Bob Crum (1973), Bob McCall (1973) + 1 more

+2.8

16-26

1967–1968

Darrell Mudra Short tenure

vs. Arizona State

11-9-1

1959–1966

Jim LaRue Steady

Jim LaRue moved the Wildcats from Regional Program III to Regional Program I in 8 seasons.

vs. Arizona State

+9.6 pts over 8 seasons · top 17% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Chuck Amato’s NC State run (2000–2006)

13th-best Arizona tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Edward Doherty (1957–1958) · succeeded by Darrell Mudra (1967–1968).

+9.6

41-37-2

1957–1958

Edward Doherty Short tenure

vs. Arizona State

4-15-1

1952–1956

Warren Woodson Steady≈

Warren Woodson moved Arizona from Regional Program III to National Program III in 5 seasons.

vs. Arizona State

+11.2 pts over 5 seasons · top 4% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Hugh Freeze’s Ole Miss run (2012–2016)

12th-best Arizona tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Robert Winslow (1949–1951) · succeeded by Edward Doherty (1957–1958).

+11.2

26-22-2

1949–1951

Robert Winslow Steady

Robert Winslow slid the Wildcats from Regional Program I to Regional Program II in 3 seasons.

vs. Arizona State

−9.3 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 15% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tommy Tuberville’s Cincinnati run (2013–2016)

15th-best Arizona tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Miles Casteel (1946–1948) · succeeded by Warren Woodson (1952–1956).

−9.3

12-18-1

1939–1942, 1946–1948

Miles Casteel Steady

Miles Casteel slid the Wildcats from National Program I to National Program II in 7 seasons.

vs. Arizona State

−9.7 pts over 7 seasons · bottom 6% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Bill Curry’s Kentucky run (1990–1996)

6th-best Arizona tenure of 15 by the numbers.

Followed Orian Landreth (1938) · succeeded by Robert Winslow (1949–1951).

−9.7

41-26-3

1938

Orian Landreth Short tenure

3-6

1936–1937

Tex Oliver Short tenure

vs. Arizona State

13-4-3