The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Larry Coker

Larry Coker held UTSA at Regional Program I for 4 seasons.

Peak, then fade
82–41
2001–2015 · 2 stints
MiamiUTSA
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerMIAMIUTSADynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelMiami, 2001: 12-0, Blue Blood2001Miami, 2002: 12-1, Blue Blood2002Miami, 2003: 11-2, Blue Blood2003Miami, 2004: 9-3, Blue Blood2004Miami, 2005: 9-3, Blue Blood2005Miami, 2006: 7-6, Blue Blood2006+8.1UTSA, 2012: 8-4, Regional Program I2012UTSA, 2013: 7-5, Regional Program II2013UTSA, 2014: 4-8, Regional Program II2014UTSA, 2015: 3-9, Regional Program III2015+0.0One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Blue Blood in his 1st career season — faster than 59% of the 100 FBS coaches who have ever reached Blue Blood (rank #1 of 100 by seasons-to-arrival).

Miami, 6 seasons
+8.1
Blue Blood → Blue Blood.
UTSA, 4 seasons
+0.0
Regional Program I → Regional Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%UTSA2012–2015▼ 3.3pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

9–5 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Mike Gundy.

Rivalry record
9–5
64.3% · 3 rivals
One-score games
25–19
56.8% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
9–5
64.3%
Rivalry ledger
Florida State5–271%
Virginia Tech3–350%
Texas State1–0100%
The toughest matchup
vs. Mike Gundy0–3
3 meetings, 2013–2015
’13 L’14 L · blew a 3-pt lead’15 L
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
9–5 64.3%
Power Program
13–8 61.9%
National Program
14–11 56.0%
Regional Program
37–17 68.5%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.21
#242 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.04
#186 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2012–2015
UTSAcaretaker
Regional Program I
Larry Coker held UTSA at Regional Program I for 4 seasons.

2nd-best UTSA tenure of 3 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-25.9 pts
#193 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-5.7 pts
#129 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Succeeded by Frank Wilson (2016–2019).

Season2012201320142015Trend
Record & result
Record8–47–54–83–9
Postseason————
Recruiting rank——#126#103
Style — pass rate
Pass rate——44.741.4
Coordinators
OC——Kevin BrownKevin Brown
DC——Neal NeatheryNeal Neathery
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense——614
Defense——6235
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%——37.436.8
Red-zone pass%——25.940.6
4th-down go%opp. territory——28.627.0
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints

1 NFL Draft pick: David Morgan (2016)

22–26
2001–2006
Miamisustainer
Blue Blood → Blue Blood
Larry Coker kept Miami a national power for 6 seasons.

2nd-best Miami tenure of 20 by the numbers.

Followed Butch Davis (1995–2000) · succeeded by Randy Shannon (2007–2010).

54 NFL Draft picks: Dan Morgan (2001), Damione Lewis (2001), Santana Moss (2001), Reggie Wayne (2001), James Jackson (2001), Leonard Myers (2001), Andre King (2001), Bryant McKinnie (2002) + 46 more

60–15