cfb zeitgeistZeitgeist
OFFSEASON · SUMMER 2026 · COMMITMENT SEASON
Heisman / Players / Danny O'Neil /Wisconsin

Danny O'Neil

QB · Wisconsin · So · #18

Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.

635 PASS YDS · 5 PASS TD · 58 RUSH YDS

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Wisconsin for 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Wisconsin for 2026

2026 Depth chart

Projected starter

Quarterback · Wisconsin

Returning around him

  • 40% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
  • Transfer portal: +8 net (33 in / 25 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Wisconsin · Last season: 4-8 · Talent rank #28 · 2026 recruiting class #27

QB · WISCONSIN · BIG TEN

Danny O'Neil

  • 2
  • #18
  • 6-0 | 196 lb
  • Indianapolis, IN

CFB Zeitgeist Score

45

Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by completion % at the 89th percentile.

Heisman Heat

#2172

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP QB AWARD

Davey O'Brien

CONSENSUS

All-American

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Career Arc

HS
Recruit
★★★
#680 national
CFB
College
Wisconsin
2025
NFL
NFL Draft
Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionQB
Class2
Jersey18
Measurements6-0 | 196 lb
HometownIndianapolis, IN
Primary teamWisconsin

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 680 recruit
Composite rating 0.8786 HighSchool
Signed with San Diego State 2024
Origin Cathedral Indianapolis, IN, USA
Class Profile Context
2024 3-star | 0.8786 No. 680 recruit | HighSchool | San Diego State

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file
Latest destination Wisconsin 2025
Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context
Eligibility Immediate Dec 16, 2024
Season Move Context
2025 San Diego State -> Wisconsin 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16
Current nowcast#2172Latest modeled ballot order
Season forecast#2552Where the full season sim points
Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy
Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier
Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot
Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

No achievements unlocked yet this season.

Selector Grid · 2025

AP
FWAA
AFCA
WCFF
SN
SI

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to San Diego State

Composite

0.8786

#680 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

Anti-Take

PENDING

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

The Room on Danny O'Neil

Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal

The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.

Cohort divergence map

Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.

Rival Radar

How rival fanbases talk about Danny O'Neil

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

2025 Signature · 2025 season

ESPN QBR (season average)

34.1

QBR

P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 2 games

National rank #87 of 92
Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 2 games 6th

Why it matters

#87 of 92 P4 + Notre Dame QBs by ESPN QBR — 34.1 across 6 games.

Vs cohort

This player 34.1 (6th)

HIGH · n=6 cohort 92

  • Also strong
  • Third-down snap share#72 / 93

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the passing totals stand

projecting to 13-game
Through 6g
635Pass yards
5Pass TDs
5INT
Per game
105.8Pass yards
1Pass TDs
1INT
Projected (13g)
1,376Pass yards
11Pass TDs
11INT

To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 635): needs 337.9/game over remaining 7.

To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 635): needs 480.7/game over remaining 7.

To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 5): needs 2.9/game over remaining 7.

To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 5): needs 3.6/game over remaining 7.

To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 5): needs 4.3/game over remaining 7.

What made this player interesting

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

Danny O'Neil's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Wisconsin, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.

Current place #2172 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist
Role load 35.5% Overall usage share
Profile quirk Transfer path 1 portal move

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

QB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Pass yards 635 5 TD | 5 INT | #166/382 (57th pct)
Completion rate 67.8% 61/90 completions | #84/383 (78th pct)
Yards/attempt 7.1 Explosiveness through the air | #165/382 (57th pct)
Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

Efficient against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.

Efficient

2025 Season · Final

2025 season snapshot | final

Passing Efficiency

CMP
61 56th
ATT
90 58th
CMP%
67.8% 78th
Y/A
7.1 57th

Passing Production

YDS
635 57th
TD
5 64th
INT
5 32nd

Rushing

CAR
50 69th
YDS
58 57th
YPC
1.2 28th
TD
1 63rd

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 6 games

Box score · CFBD
WkOppCMP/ATTYDSTDINTYPAQBRNote
Wk 1W 17-0vs Miami (OH)12/19120116.345.0
Wk 2W 42-10vs Middle Tennessee23/272833110.557.8Season-high 283 yds
Wk 3L 14-38@ Alabama11/17117126.923.3
Wk 4L 10-27vs Maryland14/22120015.518.3
Wk 8L 0-34vs Ohio State1/3-500-1.726.4
Wk 11W 13-10vs Washington0/20000.033.5
Total61/90635554.634.1
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2025Wisconsin4-8HC: Luke Fickell · Run-heavy, slow tempo
SeasonTeam
2025Wisconsin619067.8%6357.155134.3----
Career1 loaded season619067.8%6357.155134.3----
SeasonTeam
2025Wisconsin50581.21--
Career1 loaded season50581.21--
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context
Passing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.

Role share

How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Rush impact 58 1 rush TD | #178/408 (57th pct)
Usage 35.5% 60.4% pass share | 17.5% rush share | #161/428 (63rd pct)
Passing WEPA +0.22 Opponent-adjusted passing value | #130/200 (36th pct)
Open full stat explorer
0 metrics visible Showing all metrics
Group Metric Value Rank Pct Why it matters
Passing Passing yards 635 #166/382 57th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Pass TD 5 #149/407 64th pct Scoringvs FBS QB
Passing Completions 61 #168/383 56th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Completion % 67.8% #84/383 78th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Passing Yards / attempt 7.1 #165/382 57th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Rushing Rushing yards 58 #178/408 57th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Value Passing WEPA +0.22 #130/200 36th pct Opponent-adjusted passing value | 101 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Usage Role share 35.5% #161/428 63rd pct Share of team offensevs FBS QB
Passing Attempts 90 #171/407 58th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Passing Interceptions 5 #276/407 32nd pct Turnoversvs FBS QB
Rushing Carries 50 #127/408 69th pct Volumevs FBS QB
Rushing Rushing LONG 21 #167/391 58th pct Metricvs FBS QB
Rushing Yards / carry 1.2 #296/407 28th pct Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Rushing Rush TD 1 #151/408 63rd pct Scoringvs FBS QB
Usage Pass share 60.4% #168/428 61st pct Air-game usagevs FBS QB
Usage 3rd-down usage 48.8% #149/428 65th pct Money-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage Passing-down usage 41.3% #181/428 58th pct Known-passing sharevs FBS QB
Usage 2nd-down usage 33.1% #169/428 61st pct Middle-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage Standard-down usage 32.5% #151/428 65th pct Base-situation sharevs FBS QB
Usage 1st-down usage 30.8% #160/428 63rd pct Early-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage Rush share 17.5% #79/428 82nd pct Ground-game usagevs FBS QB
Value Rushing WEPA +0.24 #73/140 49th pct Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 37 weighted playsvs FBS QB

Player Standing

Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

StatusAwaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 6 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

YDS/gTD/gYPAINT/g
Home5g1040.84.10.6
Road1g1171.06.92.0

Win vs Loss

YDS/gTD/gYPAINT/g
Wins3g1341.35.60.7
Losses3g77.30.33.61.0

First half vs Second half

YDS/gTD/gYPAINT/g
Weeks 1-74g1601.27.31.2
Weeks 8+2g-2.50.0-0.80.0

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

45Mid-pack
7 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: completion % (88th). Concern: pass yards (10th).

Completion %#21 / 183 · 89th pct
67.8%pass
Interceptions#53 / 183 · 67th pct
5pass
Yards / att#92 / 183 · 49th pct
7.1pass
Rush yards#120 / 183 · 35th pct
58rush
Rush TDs#123 / 183 · 26th pct
1rush
Pass TDs#148 / 183 · 18th pct
5pass
Pass yards#165 / 183 · 10th pct
635pass

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)

Where the throws are landing

53/79 (67.1%) · 5 TD · 5 INT

Short

0–9 yds
55%of completions
29 comp5.3 yds avg2 TD

Middle

10–19 yds
34%of completions
18 comp13.8 yds avg1 TD

Deep

20+ yds
11%of completions
6 comp34.8 yds avg2 TD

Overall 67.1% completion on 79 attempts.

Advanced Savant · QB · 2024

Percentile Card

Concerns: EPA / dropback.

P4G5All FBS
EPA / dropback0.220
23th pct
CPOE
awaiting
Success rate
awaiting
Explosive rate (20+)
awaiting
aDOT
awaiting
Deep-ball accuracy
awaiting
Pressure-to-sack
awaiting
3rd-down EPA
awaiting
Red-zone TD rate
awaiting
Play-action EPA
awaiting
Scramble EPA
awaiting
Turnover-worthy play rate
awaiting

Advanced Savant

Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.

wepa_passing0.22Below (<p25) (n=94)
wepa_rushing0.24Low (p25–p50) (n=72)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 7 metrics
Danny O'NeilWisconsinCade KlubnikClemson· 65% simNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 65% simJalen KitnaUAB· 65% sim
Completion %
89
O'Neil
73
Klubnik
41
Vattiato
79
Kitna
Interceptions
67
O'Neil
56
Klubnik
44
Vattiato
10
Kitna
Yards / att
49
O'Neil
63
Klubnik
13
Vattiato
57
Kitna
Rush yards
35
O'Neil
42
Klubnik
27
Vattiato
8
Kitna
Rush TDs
26
O'Neil
59
Klubnik
39
Vattiato
9
Kitna
Pass TDs
18
O'Neil
64
Klubnik
64
Vattiato
55
Kitna
Pass yards
10
O'Neil
78
Klubnik
57
Vattiato
64
Kitna

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Game Manager

Consistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone.

QB

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Logan Fife’s 2022 season.

Logan Fife

53%match

Fresno State · 2022

#2

Ryder Burton

UAB · 2025

53%
#3

Jacob Zeno

UAB · 2024

47%
#4

Anthony Colandrea

Virginia · 2023

45%
#5

Jayden de Laura

Arizona · 2023

39%

Matches Logan on

INT rate

Differs from Logan on

TD rate (higher)
Recruiting rating (higher)
Class year (lower)

Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Derek Robertson’s path through Monmouth.

Derek Robertson

84%match

Monmouth · 2025

#2

Parker McKinney

Eastern Kentucky · 2023

84%
#3

Trenton Bourguet

Arizona State · 2023

81%
#4

Brady McBride

Texas State · 2021

77%
#5

Luke Anthony

Louisiana Tech · 2020

77%

Matches Derek on

Yards per attempt
Completion %

As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Logan Fife's sophomore season at Fresno State (2022).

Logan Fife

48%match

Fresno State · 2022

#2

Chandler Rogers

UL Monroe · 2022

43%
#3

Anthony Colandrea

Virginia · 2024

All-Mountain West
42%
#4

MJ Morris

NC State · 2023

39%
#5

Tony Muskett

Virginia · 2023

38%

Differs from Logan on

Class year (lower)
TD rate (higher)
Recruiting rating (higher)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Luke Fickell

Pass share

39.7%

272 pass / 413 run

Plays / game

57.1

12 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

10.8%

249 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Run-heavy, slow tempo.

Coaching Lineage · 2025

1 coach
2025
Luke Fickell
Wisconsin

Played his entire career under Luke Fickell.

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.

HometownIndianapolis, IN
Height6'0"
Weight196 lb
Class2
PositionQB
Jersey18

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

Honors

No formal honors on the ledger yet

All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season Honor Scope Team / Selector Context
No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned.

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season Team Role Latest Model Forecast Win Finalist Official Finish Points Context
2024 San Diego State QB2 #2172 #2552 0.0% 0.0% -- -- W16 snapshot | Mountain West

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season Team Conference Pos Class Bio
2025 Wisconsin Big Ten QB 2 No. 18 | 6-0 | 196 lb | Indianapolis, IN
2024 San Diego State Mountain West QB 2 No. 18 | 6-0 | 196 lb | Indianapolis, IN