Next game: at Northwestern
Northwestern’s best edge on Iowa is passing
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Iowa offense against Northwestern defense
Northwestern offense against Iowa defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.17 EPA/play | 9 | 7 | 109 / 169 | 64.5 | 1190 | 7.0 | 8 | 3 | 135.7 | 56 | 60.1 | 6.7 | 3.4 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Starter — 169 pass attempts and 24 carries in 7 games, fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 79 of 159 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Hank Brown's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| +0.21 EPA/play | 10 | 5 | 41 / 67 | 61.2 | 472 | 7.0 | 4 | 2 | 134.1 | 57 | 53.6 | 6.6 | 1.5 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.22 EPA/play | 28 | 6 | 86 | 541 #65 FBS | 6.3 | 4 | 56 | 12.8 | 14.0 | |
Yards by week → Speed merchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. 86 carries and 9 catches in 6 games. More touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Moulton hits the crease and outruns the angle. Ijeboi is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Yards / carry6.8 91th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception3.4 bottom 7th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kamari Moulton's full player page | ||||||||||
| Speed Merchant · +0.12 EPA/play | 26 | 7 | 45 | 265 | 5.9 | 3 | 48 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Speed merchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. 45 carries and 6 catches in 7 games. Fewer touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Williams hits the crease and outruns the angle. Ijeboi is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Yards / carry7.5 98th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate6.7% 76th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Xavier Williams's full player page | ||||||||||
| +0.17 EPA/play | 22 | 7 | 23 | 178 | 7.7 | 2 | 62 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| +0.33 EPA/play | 5 | 4 | 21 | 128 | 6.1 | 2 | 25 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| -0.12 EPA/play | 21 | 5 | 34 | 115 | 3.4 | 0 | 13 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.36 EPA/play | 14 | 8 | 33 | 461 | 14.0 | 2 | 57 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Starter — 33 catches and 7 carries in 8 games, about as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Diaz wins underneath on volume and route precision. Waseem is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Reception volume33 74th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Plays like View Tony Diaz's full player page | ||||||||
| Jump-Ball Target · +2.76 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 25 | 367 | 14.7 | 4 #70 FBS | 37 | |
Yards by week → Jump-ball targetWins contested catches at the goal line. Size and catch radius are the weapons. 25 catches in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR Zee wins the 50-50 ball at the goal line. Waseem is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt TD rate16.0% 86th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)2.8 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Reece Vander Zee's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.62 EPA/play | 81 | 7 | 29 | 304 | 10.5 | 3 | 45 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Starter — 29 catches and 3 carries in 7 games, more catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. This week's matchup — TE Vonnahme shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Burhenn is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception10.3 bottom 43th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume29 92th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View DJ Vonnahme's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.19 EPA/play | 87 | 5 | 10 | 90 | 9 | 1 | 29 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Addison Ostrenga's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.31 EPA/play | — | 3 | 5 | 63 | 12.6 | 0 | 17 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.10 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 7 | 58 | 8.3 | 0 | 18 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.12 EPA/play | 85 | 4 | 5 | 21 | 4.2 | 0 | 9 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 96 | 8 | 28 | 14 | 7 | 2.5 | 1 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — 28 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.0% 81th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Bryce Hawthorne's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 51 | 8 | 16 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Luke Gaffney's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 43 | 7 | 15 | 8 | 2.5 | 2 | 1 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% 55th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kahmari Brown's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 57 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Will Hubert's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 97 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate12.5% bottom 41th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Iose Epenesa's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 44 | 5 | 11 | 2 | 0.5 | 0 | 2 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate4.5% bottom 18th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kenneth Merrieweather's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 13 | 8 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Drew Campbell's full player page | |||||||
| 92 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 84 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 33 | 8 | 70 | 39 | 31 | 8 #50 FBS | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. Impact starter — 70 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS linebacker who plays every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 76th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume70 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Cam Buffington's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 36 | 8 | 46 | 25 | 21 | 7 | 2.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 46 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume46 68th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate15.2% 84th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jayden Montgomery's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 23 | 8 | 25 | 11 | 14 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Landyn Van Kekerix's full player page | |||||||||
| 46 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1 | 0 | |
| 4 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 22 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 31 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rover | 6 | 8 | 48 | 4 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
RoverHits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away. Impact starter — 48 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 33 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.3% 53th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Zach Lutmer's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 8 | 8 | 25 | 5 | 3 #16 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Centerfielder· Takeaway threatSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate20.0% 95th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Deshaun Lee's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 3 | 7 | 24 | 7 #20 FBS | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate29.2% 100th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jaylen Watson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 11 | 8 | 23 | 1 | 2 #51 FBS | 1.5 | 1 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.3% bottom 33th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jacob Wallace's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 18 | 7 | 18 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate16.7% 88th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Xavier Styles's full player page | |||||||
| 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weapon | 92 | 8 | 13/15 | 86.7 | 23/25 | 62 | 54 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinner | 49 | 8 | 36 | 1573 | 43.7 | 60 | 21 | 4 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.10 EPA/play | 8 | 8 | 21 | 272 | 13 | 1 | 77 |
| Jump-Ball Target · +2.76 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 4 | 39 | 9.8 | 0 | 15 |
Biggest plays from Iowa’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Iowa’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 0:00 · Iowa down 5, takes the leadHank Brown finds Reece Vander Zee for a 16-yard touchdownIowa at Michigan, week 4Q4, 0:00 · Iowa 20, Michigan 190:00Go-ahead touchdown for Iowa with 0:00 left0:00Go-ahead touchdown for Iowa with 0:00 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Iowa with 0:00 leftReece Vander Zee 16 yd pass from Hank Brown▶Watch from this play
CBS Sports College Football- Q4, 3:46 · Iowa down 7, ties itIowa scores a touchdownIowa at Minnesota, week 8Q4, 3:46 · Iowa 10, Minnesota 103:46Game-tying touchdown for Iowa with 3:46 left3:46Game-tying touchdown for Iowa with 3:46 leftGame-tying touchdown for Iowa with 3:46 leftH.Brown pass complete deep middle to R.Vander Zee caught at MINN12, for 37 yards to the MINN00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN kick attempt good, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q1, 0:10 · Iowa up 6Kamari Moulton runs 56 yards for a touchdownIowa at Washington, week 6Q1, 0:10 · Iowa 13, Washington 05656-yard touchdown run5656-yard touchdown run56-yard touchdown runK.Moulton rush middle for 56 yards gain to the WASH00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q1, 1:44 · Iowa down 7, ties itIowa scores a touchdownIowa at Michigan, week 4Q1, 1:44 · Iowa 7, Michigan 799Kickoff return touchdown99Kickoff return touchdownKickoff return touchdownJ.Baggett kickoff 64 yards to the IOWA01 B.Jackson return 99 yards to the U-M00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
Q2, 0:10 · Iowa tiedT.J. Bush intercepts Hank BrownIowa at Minnesota, week 8Q2, 0:10 · Iowa 3, Minnesota 3▼16%Iowa’s chance to win, 66% to 50%▼16%Iowa’s chance to win, 66% to 50%H.Brown pass intercepted by T.Bush Jr. at MINN37 QB hurried by K.Menz, End Of Play▶Watch from this play- Q4, 14:02 · Iowa down 6, takes the leadIowa scores a touchdownIowa at Michigan, week 4Q4, 14:02 · Iowa 14, Michigan 13Go-ahead touchdown for Iowa in the fourth quarterGo-ahead touchdown for Iowa in the fourth quarterH.Brown pass complete short middle to R.Vander Zee caught at U-M01, for 16 yards to the U-M00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
How scary each game got
Iowa lost at Minnesota after being 67% to win; the closest win was at Michigan, down to 10%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Iowa during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Iowa
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · IowaCam Buffington leads Iowa with 70 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+15 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Iowa fields a limited methodical, ball-control offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Iowa reads strongest in rushing EPA allowed (top 1%) and red-zone defense (top 2%); the crux lives in rushing EPA, where Iowa sits at the 27th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Iowa is worth +2.9 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom third of FBS, 25th percentile of 133 programs
75% at home, 63% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (40-13 home, 26-15 away). Interval ±3.6.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Iowa has beaten the number by −3.5 more at home than away over 98 games. That is inside the ±5.6 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Kinnick Stadium seats 69,250 and has averaged 100% full (69,250, 33 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 274 miles trip since 2018, the 24th-shortest of 135 FBS venues. There is no travel penalty on visitors here either way. 15% of the 2026 roster (15 of 103 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 58 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- UnderdogDJ Vonnahme produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
- Garbage timeJaziun Patterson sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
- Garbage timeKamari Moulton does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Kamari Moulton and Xavier Williams split the carries (85/128 vs 43/128) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Tony Diaz (WR) and DJ Vonnahme (TE) split the targets (54/95 vs 41/95) -- but the job isn't split the same way. DJ Vonnahme is the one trusted on 3rd down.
See it develop week by week
3rd-down target share, week by week (weeks both players actually played the role)
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Iowa actually scores
52nd percentile quality, 53rd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Iowa’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 34th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 51st — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Iowa hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
79th percentile success on standard downs, 13th on passing downs — a 66-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Iowa by half
1st-half offense ranks 55th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 32nd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Iowa’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.11; 45th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.03. The widest gap came in week 4: 0.23 raw vs. 0.03 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Iowa’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Iowa’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.7% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 208-play sample) — mid-pack, 78 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Iowa’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (66.1% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 164-play sample) — mid-pack, 60 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
60% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~48% league baseline.
3 of 5 forced fumbles recovered; 5 of 8 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
18% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~18% league average.
6 interceptions of 33 disrupted passes (27 deflected, 6 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
45 penalties committed, 55 drawn on opponents — netting a 80-yard field-position edge.
355 penalty yards committed vs. 435 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Iowa
Most similar programs · IowaReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA
Usual during the game around Nov 13: 43°, between 31° and 52° in about 7 in 10 games (31 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 53°, and 8 in 10 ran between 35° and 71° (48 road games).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.