Iowa

2-0AP #18

Big Ten · Kirk Ferentz, year 28 (215-128) · Kinnick Stadium · 69,250 · 69,250 avg in 2026

The nationAP #18 · Coaches #20up 3 from last week
The model#17 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #16 (+18.0) · FPI #32
The marketno line yetvs Northern Iowa · our model 97% Iowa · a number, not a pick

LastW 16–13 vs Iowa State · Sat Sep 12 · Hank Brown 191 pass yds, 22 rush yds, 1 TD

Nextvs Northern Iowa · Sat Sep 19 · 4 pm ET · Kinnick Stadium · series 17-0, won the last 17 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
28.0
Pts allowed/game
6.5
Total yards/gm#81 / 138 · 42nd pct
395.5
Rush yards/gmT-#53 / 138 · 61st pct
191.0
Pass yards/gm#93 / 138 · 33rd pct
204.5
Yards allowed/gm#7 / 138 · 95th pct
187.5
Rush yds allowed/gm#18 / 138 · 87th pct
72.5
SacksT-#20 / 138 · 80th pct
6
InterceptionsT-#63 / 115 · 23rd pct
1
3rd-down conv#87 / 138 · 37th pct
37.9%
All 76 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
791395.5/gm5.77/play#81 / 138 · 42nd pct#46 / 69 · 34th pct#10 / 18 · 47th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
375187.5/gm3.47/play#7 / 138 · 95th pct#6 / 69 · 92nd pct#2 / 18 · 92nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
382191.0/gm2.79/playT-#53 / 138 · 61st pctT-#28 / 69 · 59th pct#7 / 18 · 64th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
14572.5/gm1.34/play#18 / 138 · 87th pct#16 / 69 · 78th pct#2 / 18 · 92nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
6733.5/gmT-#93 / 138 · 32nd pct#46 / 69 · 34th pct#9 / 18 · 53rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6532.5/gmT-#50 / 138 · 62nd pctT-#33 / 69 · 49th pctT-#7 / 18 · 56th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
31.5/gmT-#77 / 138 · 34th pctT-#45 / 69 · 28th pctT-#10 / 18 · 39th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 92nd pctT-#1 / 69 · 88th pctT-#1 / 18 · 92nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
409204.5/gm2.99/play#93 / 138 · 33rd pct#56 / 69 · 20th pct#14 / 18 · 25th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
230115.0/gm2.13/play#6 / 138 · 96th pct#5 / 69 · 93rd pct#2 / 18 · 92nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
7035.0/gmT-#37 / 138 · 73rd pctT-#17 / 69 · 75th pct#6 / 18 · 69th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
4321.5/gmT-#14 / 138 · 90th pct#9 / 69 · 88th pct#3 / 18 · 86th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
4221.0/gmT-#55 / 138 · 59th pctT-#32 / 69 · 53rd pctT-#9 / 18 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2311.5/gmT-#8 / 138 · 94th pctT-#6 / 69 · 91st pctT-#2 / 18 · 89th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
21.0/gmT-#94 / 138 · 25th pctT-#54 / 69 · 19th pctT-#12 / 18 · 33rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#13 / 138 · 80th pctT-#11 / 69 · 72nd pctT-#4 / 18 · 75th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating
Team
115.7115.7#95 / 115 · 18th pct#53 / 59 · 11th pct#13 / 16 · 22nd pct#9 / 13 · 38th pct
Opp
101.4101.4#17 / 91 · 82nd pct#13 / 41 · 70th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Interceptions thrown
Team
10.5/gmT-#52 / 138 · 49th pctT-#25 / 69 · 53rd pctT-#5 / 18 · 64th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#24 / 138 · 64th pctT-#11 / 69 · 64th pctT-#3 / 18 · 69th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
63.0/gmT-#20 / 138 · 80th pctT-#11 / 69 · 78th pctT-#3 / 18 · 78th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 97th pctT-#1 / 69 · 96th pctT-#1 / 18 · 94th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
105.0/gmT-#79 / 138 · 38th pctT-#45 / 69 · 31st pctT-#12 / 18 · 33rd pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
52.5/gmT-#14 / 138 · 88th pctT-#10 / 69 · 83rd pctT-#3 / 18 · 81st pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
3919.5/gmT-#92 / 138 · 32nd pctT-#52 / 69 · 23rd pctT-#11 / 18 · 39th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
168.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 99th pctT-#1 / 69 · 99th pct#1 / 18 · 97th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
115.5/gmT-#63 / 138 · 52nd pctT-#37 / 69 · 44th pctT-#9 / 18 · 50th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
73.5/gmT-#29 / 138 · 76th pctT-#20 / 69 · 67th pctT-#3 / 18 · 78th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2914.5/gmT-#34 / 138 · 72nd pctT-#13 / 69 · 78th pctT-#3 / 18 · 81st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2814.0/gmT-#62 / 138 · 50th pctT-#32 / 69 · 49th pctT-#11 / 18 · 39th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
00.0/gmT-#114 / 138 · 9th pctT-#52 / 69 · 13th pctT-#14 / 18 · 14th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 91st pctT-#1 / 69 · 90th pctT-#1 / 18 · 83rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
42.0/gmT-#47 / 138 · 60th pctT-#24 / 69 · 59th pctT-#7 / 18 · 56th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 99th pct#1 / 69 · 99th pct#1 / 18 · 97th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
63:3331:46/gm#55 / 138 · 61st pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#8 / 18 · 58th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
56:2728:14/gm#46 / 138 · 67th pct#27 / 69 · 62nd pct#8 / 18 · 58th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.20 EPA/play9233 / 50663206.410126.45634.26.80
+0.32 EPA/play1017 / 1643.8764.81191.8
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.37 EPA/play28226240
#10 FBS
9.22
#43 FBS
50
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Possession Receiver · +0.19 EPA/play14215179
#39 FBS
11.9156
+0.15 EPA/play81266711.2016
2256412.8016

2026 stat leaders · Iowa

through 2 games

Cam Buffington leads Iowa with 21 tackles through 2 games.

1. Cam Buffington LB 21 tackles
2. Kamari Moulton RB 240 rushing yards
3. Tony Diaz WR 179 receiving yards
4. Bryce Hawthorne DL 9 tackles
5. Chima Chineke DE 1 sacks
How They Play · 2025

Iowa fields a limited run-heavy, methodical, ball-control offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
41st pct EPA/play
Run/Pass
63% run plays
Tempo
67th pct success, 3rd explosiveness
Defense
89th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
97th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Iowa · 2025

Iowa reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 4%) and epa allowed (top 11%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Iowa sits at the 2nd percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.15
41st
Success Rate +0.44
67th
Explosive Plays +1.11
3rd
Rushing EPA +0.16
70th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.04
89th
Success Rate Allowed +0.38
73rd
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.10
97th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.11
89th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.24
45th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.03
73rd
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 13 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Iowa · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Iowa is worth +2.9 points more at home than on the road.

Bottom third of FBS, 28th percentile of 133 programs

76% at home, 63% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (39–12 home, 24–14 away). Interval ±3.8.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Iowa has beaten the number by −4.0 more at home than away over 72 games — inside the ±6.3 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Kinnick Stadium seats 69,250 and has averaged 100% full (69,250, 30 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 274 miles trip since 2018, the 25th-shortest of 135 FBS venues. There is no travel penalty on visitors here either way. 15% of the 2026 roster (15 of 103 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 55 home games since 2018.

Home39–12Away24–14Edge+2.9 ±3.8Visitor trip274 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected

Iowa's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 11th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 34th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 11th pctileCompetitive snaps only · 34th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Iowa’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Offense: Tim Lester (2024–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2024: 23% → 2026: 44% · 21-pt range · #9 of 184 · more than most
Red-zone pass rate
2024: 33% → 2026: 42% · 13-pt range · #95 of 182 · a typical amount
4th-down go rate
2024: 13% → 2025: 33% · 21-pt range · #59 of 172 · a typical amount
Defense: Phil Parker (2014–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2014: 41% → 2026: 44% · 21-pt range · #14 of 203 · more than most
Red-zone pass rate
2014: 35% → 2026: 42% · 19-pt range · #46 of 200 · more than most
4th-down go rate
2014: 40% → 2025: 33% · 34-pt range · #7 of 189 · more than most
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

Pass-depth identity

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), Iowa’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (67.8% vs 68.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 61-play sample) — mid-pack, 17 of 41 qualifying offenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 59 claims, 59 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=61 short-zone plays, raw rate 67.2%
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Iowa

CFB Zeitgeist

#17

+7.6

SP+

#16

+18.0

FPI

#32

+9.9

Elo

#12

1845

The national models put Iowa between 12th and 32nd nationally — CFB Zeitgeist agrees, slotting them 17th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Iowa

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

62°F average kickoff temp; 5% of games had measurable precipitation; 9 mph average wind.

Based on 84 home games with weather data.

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