CFB Zeitgeist Score
73
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by interceptions at the 90th percentile.
Zach Lutmer
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
71 TACKLES · 1 SACKS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Iowa for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Defensive back · Iowa
Returning around him
- 49% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
- 7 Iowa players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: +7 net (15 in / 8 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Iowa · Last season: 9-4 · Talent rank #42 · 2026 recruiting class #38
DB · IOWA · BIG TEN
Zach Lutmer
- 2
- #6
- 6-0 | 205 lb
- Rock Rapids, IA
Heisman Heat
#9670
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP DB AWARD
Jim Thorpe
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
2 seasons on the ladder
2024
Iowa · DB
—
★
2025
Iowa · DB
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Iowa
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 3-star | 0.8564 | No. 1225 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8564
#1225 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Zach Lutmer
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Zach Lutmer
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 13g
71Tackles
5.5Tackles for loss
1Sacks
Per game
5Tackles
0.4Tackles for loss
0.1Sacks
Final
71Tackles
5.5Tackles for loss
1Sacks
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Zach Lutmer is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Iowa's defense, with 1.0 sacks, 5.5 tackles for loss, and 3 interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-disruption defender | Coverage splash | High-volume tackler against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
71 95th
SOLO
44 97th
TFL
5.5 90th
SACK
1.0 82nd
Coverage & Takeaways
PD
7 96th
INT
3 94th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 34-7vs UAlbany | 5 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 2 | L 13-16@ Iowa State | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 3 | W 47-7vs Massachusetts | 5 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 4 | W 38-28@ Rutgers | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 3 | |
| Wk 5 | L 15-20vs Indiana | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wk 7 | W 37-0@ Wisconsin | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 8 | W 25-24vs Penn State | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 9 | W 41-3vs Minnesota | 5 | 1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wk 11 | L 16-18vs Oregon | 6 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 12 | L 21-26@ USC | 8 | 8 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | Season-high 8 tackles |
| Wk 13 | W 20-17vs Michigan State | 6 | 5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Wk 14 | W 40-16@ Nebraska | 5 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Bowl | W 34-27@ Vanderbilt | 3 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Total | 71 | 44 | 5.5 | 1.0 | 3 | 7 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2024Iowa8-5HC: Kirk Ferentz · Run-heavy
2025Iowa9-4HC: Kirk Ferentz · Run-heavy, slow tempo
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 71 | #253/4942 | 95th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 5.5 | #477/4972 | 90th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 1.0 | #872/4972 | 82nd pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Interceptions | 3 | #56/869 | 94th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Pass breakups | 7 | #85/2184 | 96th pct | Coveragevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | INT return yards | 72 | #53/578 | 91st pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 44 | #137/4584 | 97th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | INT return avg | 24.0 | #161/578 | 72nd pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Defensive TD | 1 | #23/200 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Fumbles recovered | 1 | #103/736 | 86th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Pick-six TD | 1 | #13/119 | 90th pct | Scoringvs FBS DEF |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/773 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 5.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
| Road6g | 5.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins9g | 5.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.8 |
| Losses4g | 6.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 4.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 6.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the DB cohort
73Solid starter
Elite: passes defended (96th). Strength: solo tackles (95th). Concern: qb hurries (22nd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · DB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Zach LutmerIowaNick AndersenWake Forest· 94% simAhmaad MosesSMU· 92% simOwen LongColorado State· 92% sim
Passes defended
Solo tackles
Tackles
Interceptions
Tackles for loss
Sacks
Forced fumbles
QB hurries
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Box Safety
Lives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker.
S
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Zach Williams’s 2025 season.
Zach Williams
82%match
#2
Sebastian Castro
All-Big Ten
74%
#3
Plae Wyatt
71%
#4
Kevin Brennan
70%
#5
Jordan Mosley
70%
Matches Zach on
Class year
PD rate
Tackle volume
Differs from Zach on
Height (lower)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a sophomore, his production profile tracks closest to Zach Williams's sophomore season at Tulsa (2025).
Zach Williams
87%match
#2
Ja'Marley Riddle
86%
#3
Nick Cross
NFL Rd 3 · Pk 32
82%
#4
Nicholas Rodriguez
80%
#5
Ian Foster
76%
Matches Zach on
Class year
PD rate
Tackle volume
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Kirk Ferentz
Pass share
36.6%
286 pass / 495 run
Plays / game
60.1
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.9%
228 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy, slow tempo.
Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025
1 coach2024
Kirk Ferentz
Iowa
2025
Kirk Ferentz
Iowa
Played his entire career under Kirk Ferentz.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownRock Rapids, IA
Height6'0"
Weight205 lb
Class2
PositionDB
Jersey6
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamIowa
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-Big Ten
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-Big Ten | all_conference | Iowa | Big Ten | DB |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.