Next game: at Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech’s best edge on Stanford is passing
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Stanford offense against Virginia Tech defense
Virginia Tech offense against Stanford defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.32 EPA/play | 8 | 9 | 186 / 308 | 60.4 | 2203 #12 FBS | 7.2 | 14 #32 FBS | 3 | 133.5 | 40 | 59.8 | 7.0 | 4.0 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — 308 pass attempts and 26 carries in 9 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Warren operates within the system without forcing anything. Grunkemeyer is the one who picks you apart underneath and protects the ball. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.4 bottom 38th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush yards / carry-1.9 bottom 3th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Davis Warren's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| 9 | 4 | 7 / 10 | 70 | 46 | 4.6 | 0 | 0 | 108.6 | — | 6.6 | — | — | ||
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Workhorse · +0.19 EPA/play | 20 | 9 | 156 | 751 #20 FBS | 4.8 | 8 #26 FBS | 81 | 13.5 | 9.6 | |
Yards by week → Workhorse· Boom-or-bustBuilt to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine Starter — 156 carries and 26 catches in 9 games, more touches a game than nearly every FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Ford just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Jr. is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Weight220 lb 86th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share14.3% 75th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Micah Ford's full player page | ||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.34 EPA/play | 26 | 9 | 50 | 192 | 3.8 | 0 | 27 | — | — | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. 50 carries and 10 catches in 9 games. Fewer touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Irvin wins in space out of the backfield. Jr. is the one who wins in space out of the backfield. Season receipt Receiving share16.7% 86th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate0.0% bottom 5th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Sedrick Irvin's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.45 EPA/play | — | 8 | 33 | 419 | 12.7 | 4 #70 FBS | 52 | |
Yards by week → Slot technicianRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. 33 catches and 1 carry in 8 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. This week's matchup — WR High wins underneath on volume and route precision. Brown is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume33 74th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate12.1% 68th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint View Caden High's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.63 EPA/play | 23 | 7 | 28 | 345 | 12.3 | 4 #70 FBS | 41 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 28 catches in 7 games. About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Nico Brown's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.60 EPA/play | 11 | 8 | 16 | 277 | 17.3 | 0 | 57 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Hall moves the chains on third down. Brown is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception15.2 69th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jonanthony Hall's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · -0.02 EPA/play | 88 | 9 | 31 | 262 | 8.5 | 1 | 22 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Impact starter — 31 catches in 9 games, more catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. This week's matchup — TE Blackburn shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Reynolds is the one who shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Season receipt Yards / reception8.3 bottom 24th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Reception volume31 95th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Benjamin Blackburn's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.49 EPA/play | 4 | 6 | 16 | 156 | 9.8 | 0 | 30 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Onovughe moves the chains on third down. Brown is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception10.3 bottom 19th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate0.0% bottom 10th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jordan Onovughe's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.40 EPA/play | 2 | 4 | 7 | 155 | 22.1 | 0 | 61 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.92 EPA/play | 89 | 4 | 8 | 83 | 10.4 | 1 | 22 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.07 EPA/play | 13 | 5 | 5 | 56 | 11.2 | 0 | 19 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.17 EPA/play | 84 | 4 | 6 | 47 | 7.8 | 0 | 15 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Two-Gap Base | 45 | 9 | 23 | 14 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 3 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 23 tackles in 9 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 9 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Omar Staples's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 97 | 9 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 9 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Zach Rowell's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 75 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 1.5 | 0 | 4 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate10.0% bottom 33th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Braden Marceau-Olayinka's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 57 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 | 4 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate11.5% bottom 38th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kole Briehler's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 96 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate20.0% 67th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Connor Bachhuber's full player page | |||||||
| 95 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 10 | 9 | 56 | 24 | 32 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 56 tackles in 9 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 9 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Sam Mattingly's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | — | 7 | 41 | 23 | 18 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 41 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 77th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jahsiah Galvan's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 35 | 4 | 38 | 20 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 4 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Matt Rose's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 11 | 9 | 27 | 9 | 18 | 2.5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate9.3% 53th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate7.4% 90th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tevarua Tafiti's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 38 | 7 | 20 | 7 | 13 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Zach Johnson's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 49 | 6 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate11.1% 99th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate11.1% 97th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Gabe Kaminski's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 44 | 8 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 2.5 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate15.6% 85th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate12.5% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Ernest Cooper's full player page | |||||||||
| 52 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 36 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 25 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 43 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 5 | 9 | 56 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Impact starter — 56 tackles in 9 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume56 98th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jaivion Green's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 39 | 8 | 37 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 37 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Charlie Eckhardt's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 8 | 34 | 3 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 34 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Darrius Davis's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 4 | 9 | 28 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. The most common profile in its group this season — 138 of 244 classified this way. Played in 9 of 10 games this season · freshman View Leroy Bryant's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 21 | 8 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2020 class View Scotty Edwards's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 24 | 5 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate0.0% bottom 15th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Lonnie McAllister III's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 8 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Press cornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 34 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Cam Richardson's full player page | |||||||
| 9 | 4 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 3 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 20 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 33 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 13 | 9 | 7/10 | 70 | 22/23 | 43 | 48 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 37 | 9 | 46 | 1987 | 43.2 | 54 | 13 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.04 EPA/play | 5 | 8 | 21 | 431 | 20.5 | 0 | 37 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.07 EPA/play | 13 | 5 | 9 | 107 | 11.9 | 0 | 33 |
Biggest plays from Stanford’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Stanford’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 1:41 · Stanford down 4, takes the leadMicah Ford runs 2 yards for a touchdownHawai'i at Stanford, week 1Q4, 1:41 · Stanford 30, Hawai'i 271:41Go-ahead touchdown for Stanford with 1:41 left1:41Go-ahead touchdown for Stanford with 1:41 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Stanford with 1:41 leftM.Ford rush middle for 2 yards gain to the HAW00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
Q1, 2:12 · NC State down 14CJ Bailey finds Deandre Desinor for a 58-yard touchdownNC State at Stanford, week 8Q1, 2:12 · NC State 7, Stanford 145858-yard touchdown pass5858-yard touchdown pass58-yard touchdown passC.Bailey pass complete deep left to D.Desinor caught at STAN31, for 58 yards to the STAN00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q3, 7:08 · Stanford down 7, ties itDavis Warren finds Caden High for a 49-yard touchdownGeorgia Tech at Stanford, week 4Q3, 7:08 · Stanford 20, Georgia Tech 20▲24%Stanford’s chance to win, 27% to 51%▲24%Stanford’s chance to win, 27% to 51%Caden High 49 yd pass from Davis Warren (Emmet Kenney Kick)▶Watch from this play
Q4, 4:06 · Hawai'i down 2, takes the leadMicah Alejado finds Devon Rice for a 29-yard touchdownHawai'i at Stanford, week 1Q4, 4:06 · Hawai'i 27, Stanford 234:06Go-ahead touchdown for Hawai'i with 4:06 left4:06Go-ahead touchdown for Hawai'i with 4:06 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Hawai'i with 4:06 leftM.Alejado pass complete short middle to D.Rice caught at STAN26, for 29 yards to the STAN00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick no good▶Watch from this play- Q2, 10:18 · Hawai'i down 7, ties itDevon Rice runs 3 yards for a touchdownHawai'i at Stanford, week 1Q2, 10:18 · Hawai'i 7, Stanford 7Hawai'i tied the game in the second quarterHawai'i tied the game in the second quarterD.Rice rush right for 3 yards gain to the STAN00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q1, 3:40 · Stanford up 7Davis Warren finds Sedrick Irvin for a 17-yard touchdownNC State at Stanford, week 8Q1, 3:40 · Stanford 14, NC State 0▲16%Stanford’s chance to win, 68% to 84%▲16%Stanford’s chance to win, 68% to 84%D.Warren pass complete short left to S.Irvin caught at NCSU00, for 17 yards to the NCSU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Stanford lost to Miami after being 77% to win; the closest win was against Georgia Tech, down to 20%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Stanford during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Stanford
through 9 games
2026 stat leaders · StanfordJaivion Green leads Stanford with 56 tackles through 9 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+19 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Stanford fields a limited pass-first, explosive, big-play offense behind a porous defense, though it gives up the big play.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Stanford reads strongest in explosive plays (top 33%) and red-zone finish (top 48%); the crux lives in EPA allowed, where Stanford sits at the 0th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Stanford is worth +2.5 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom third of FBS, 21st percentile of 133 programs
35% at home, 33% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (16-30 home, 16-32 away). Interval ±3.7.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Stanford has beaten the number by +0.9 more at home than away over 98 games. That is inside the ±5.4 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Stanford Stadium seats 50,424 and has averaged 56% full (28,432, 29 games reported). Visitors face the 11th-longest trip of 135 FBS venues: a median 706 miles since 2018. The map isn't translating, though — the split above still reads bottom third of fbs. 11% of the 2026 roster (12 of 106 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 50 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- CloserMicah Ford gets meaningfully more work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict, mostly in real, competitive games: not just mop-up snaps.
- Garbage timeSedrick Irvin sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach, and his efficiency in competitive snaps sits below the position baseline: the numbers lean on the opponent giving up.
- Deep threatBryce Farrell is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- Garbage timeCJ Williams does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
- Deep threatSam Roush is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Micah Ford and Sedrick Irvin split the carries (156/205 vs 49/205) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Caden High (WR) and Benjamin Blackburn (TE) split the targets (54/100 vs 46/100) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Caden High produces in bigger chunks.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Stanford actually scores
53rd percentile quality, 55th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Stanford’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 7th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 52nd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Stanford hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
40th percentile success on standard downs, 9th on passing downs — a 31-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Stanford by half
1st-half offense ranks 35th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 89th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Stanford’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.07; 39th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.02. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.17 raw vs. 0.01 adjusted.
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Stanford’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.8% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 276-play sample) — mid-pack, 33 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Stanford’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.9% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 225-play sample) — mid-pack, 124 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces have gone their way on the fumbles they've forced: 57% recovered, vs. ~48% expected.
4 of 7 forced fumbles recovered; 3 of 6 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Deflections without payoff: 12% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~18% league-wide.
3 interceptions of 25 disrupted passes (22 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The flags haven't favored them: 59 penalties committed vs. 58 drawn on opponents, 57 yards behind.
518 penalty yards committed vs. 461 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Stanford
Most similar programs · StanfordReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Stanford’s slide has precedent — and 1 of the 4 closest kept falling.
Programs whose stature fell in the same shape. The grey line is their decline; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Stanford Stadium, Stanford, CA
Usual during the game around Nov 27: 54°, between 50° and 58° in about 7 in 10 games (21 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 61°, and 8 in 10 ran between 46° and 78° (52 of 55 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.