The Zeitgeist List · Coaching

System shift.

Every real head-coach transition, ranked by how hard a program's standard-down run/pass identity flipped the year the new coach arrived — normalized against that season's real league spread, so a swing in 2005 and a swing in 2025 are directly comparable.

484
transitions scored, 2004–2026
8
extreme shifts (≥2.75σ)
Mississippi State, 2019→2020: the biggest system shift on record.
Joe Moorhead → Mike Leach — standard-down rush rate swung toward the pass by 43.7 points (-4.50σ vs. the rest of that season's field).

The full leaderboard

Ranked by how far each swing sat from that season's league-wide spread, either direction — the further out, the more dramatic the shift.

1
Mississippi State 2019–2020
Joe Moorhead→Mike Leach · 6-7→4-7
43.7 ptsPass-leaning
2
Rice 2024–2025
Mike Bloomgren→Scott Abell · 2-6→5-8
31.2 ptsRun-leaning
3
Rice 2005–2006
Ken Hatfield→Todd Graham · 1-10→7-6
30.4 ptsPass-leaning
4
San José State 2004–2005
Fitz Hill→Dick Tomey · 2-9→3-8
27.9 ptsPass-leaning
5
Baylor 2007–2008
Guy Morriss→Art Briles · 3-9→4-8
32.2 ptsRun-leaning
6
Mississippi State 2022–2023
Mike Leach→Zach Arnett · 8-4→4-6
25.3 ptsRun-leaning
7
New Mexico State 2008–2009
Hal Mumme→DeWayne Walker · 3-9→3-10
30.7 ptsRun-leaning
8
Boston College 2012–2013
Frank Spaziani→Steve Addazio · 2-10→7-6
28.5 ptsRun-leaning
9
UConn 2021–2022
Lou Spanos→Jim Mora · 1-9→6-7
25.1 ptsRun-leaning
10
Georgia Southern 2021–2022
Kevin Whitley→Clay Helton · 2-6→6-7
24.9 ptsPass-leaning
11
Utah State 2004–2005
Mick Dennehy→Brent Guy · 3-8→3-8
24.2 ptsRun-leaning
12
New Mexico 2011–2012
George Barlow→Bob Davie · 1-7→4-9
27.1 ptsRun-leaning
13
Ohio 2004–2005
Brian Knorr→Frank Solich · 4-7→4-7
23.3 ptsRun-leaning
14
Northern Illinois 2025–2026
Thomas Hammock→Rob Harley · 3-9→0-8
20.1 ptsPass-leaning
15
Arkansas 2012–2013
John Smith→Bret Bielema · 4-8→3-9
25.9 ptsRun-leaning
16
Bowling Green 2024–2025
Scot Loeffler→Eddie George · 7-6→4-8
19.3 ptsRun-leaning
17
East Carolina 2009–2010
Skip Holtz→Ruffin McNeill · 9-5→6-7
22.7 ptsPass-leaning
18
Florida Atlantic 2024–2025
Tom Herman→Zach Kittley · 2-8→4-8
19.2 ptsPass-leaning
19
Southern Miss 2012–2013
Ellis Johnson→Todd Monken · 0-12→1-11
24.6 ptsPass-leaning
20
Syracuse 2023–2024
Dino Babers→Fran Brown · 5-6→10-3
19.8 ptsPass-leaning
21
Arkansas 2007–2008
Houston Nutt→Bobby Petrino · 8-4→5-7
25.1 ptsPass-leaning
22
Kansas State 2005–2006
Bill Snyder→Ron Prince · 5-6→7-6
22.7 ptsPass-leaning
23
SMU 2007–2008
Phil Bennett→June Jones · 1-11→1-11
24.5 ptsPass-leaning
24
New Mexico 2008–2009
Rocky Long→Mike Locksley · 4-8→1-11
23.7 ptsPass-leaning
25
San José State 2023–2024
Brent Brennan→Ken Niumatalolo · 7-6→7-6
18.9 ptsPass-leaning
26
Kansas 2009–2010
Mark Mangino→Turner Gill · 5-7→3-9
20.8 ptsRun-leaning
27
Houston 2007–2008
Art Briles→Kevin Sumlin · 8-4→8-5
23.5 ptsPass-leaning
28
Syracuse 2015–2016
Scott Shafer→Dino Babers · 4-8→4-8
22.2 ptsPass-leaning
29
South Carolina 2004–2005
Lou Holtz→Steve Spurrier · 6-5→7-5
19.9 ptsPass-leaning
30
Boston College 2019–2020
Steve Addazio→Jeff Hafley · 6-6→6-5
21.2 ptsPass-leaning
31
New Mexico State 2021–2022
Doug Martin→Jerry Kill · 2-10→7-6
19.8 ptsRun-leaning
32
UCF 2024–2025
Gus Malzahn→Scott Frost · 4-8→5-7
16.6 ptsPass-leaning
33
North Texas 2006–2007
Darrell Dickey→Todd Dodge · 3-9→2-10
20.5 ptsPass-leaning
34
UL Monroe 2020–2021
Matt Viator→Terry Bowden · 0-10→4-8
21.1 ptsRun-leaning
35
Nevada 2021–2022
Jay Norvell→Ken Wilson · 8-4→2-10
18.9 ptsRun-leaning
36
Georgia Tech 2018–2019
Paul Johnson→Geoff Collins · 7-6→3-9
22.1 ptsPass-leaning
37
Oklahoma State 2004–2005
Les Miles→Mike Gundy · 7-5→4-7
18.4 ptsPass-leaning
38
UL Monroe 2015–2016
Todd Berry→Matt Viator · 2-11→4-8
20.2 ptsRun-leaning
39
Hawai'i 2011–2012
Greg McMackin→Norm Chow · 6-7→3-9
21.1 ptsRun-leaning
40
Tulane 2006–2007
Chris Scelfo→Bob Toledo · 4-8→4-8
19.3 ptsRun-leaning
41
Texas State 2018–2019
Everett Withers→Jake Spavital · 3-8→3-9
20.8 ptsPass-leaning
42
Washington State 2011–2012
Paul Wulff→Mike Leach · 4-8→3-9
20.2 ptsPass-leaning
43
Temple 2012–2013
Steve Addazio→Matt Rhule · 4-7→2-10
19.7 ptsPass-leaning
44
Ball State 2024–2025
Mike Neu→Mike Uremovich · 3-7→4-8
14.8 ptsRun-leaning
45
Liberty 2022–2023
Hugh Freeze→Jamey Chadwell · 8-4→13-1
15.8 ptsRun-leaning
46
Fresno State 2024–2025
Tim Skipper→Matt Entz · 6-7→9-4
14.4 ptsRun-leaning
47
Kent State 2017–2018
Paul Haynes→Sean Lewis · 2-10→2-10
18.7 ptsPass-leaning
48
Virginia 2021–2022
Bronco Mendenhall→Tony Elliott · 6-6→3-7
16.6 ptsRun-leaning
49
Texas A&M 2007–2008
Dennis Franchione→Mike Sherman · 7-6→4-8
19.0 ptsPass-leaning
50
Nebraska 2022–2023
Mickey Joseph→Matt Rhule · 3-6→5-7
15.0 ptsRun-leaning
51
Hawai'i 2007–2008
June Jones→Greg McMackin · 12-1→7-7
18.9 ptsRun-leaning
52
Tulane 2015–2016
Curtis Johnson→Willie Fritz · 3-9→4-8
17.5 ptsRun-leaning
53
Massachusetts 2013–2014
Charley Molnar→Mark Whipple · 1-11→3-9
18.0 ptsPass-leaning
54
Kentucky 2009–2010
Rich Brooks→Joker Phillips · 7-6→6-7
15.8 ptsPass-leaning
55
Georgia Tech 2007–2008
Chan Gailey→Paul Johnson · 7-5→9-4
17.9 ptsRun-leaning
56
Maryland 2018–2019
Matt Canada→Mike Locksley · 5-7→3-9
17.7 ptsPass-leaning
57
San Diego State 2023–2024
Brady Hoke→Sean Lewis · 4-8→3-9
13.6 ptsPass-leaning
58
Miami (OH) 2008–2009
Shane Montgomery→Michael Haywood · 2-10→1-11
16.8 ptsPass-leaning
59
San José State 2009–2010
Dick Tomey→Mike MacIntyre · 2-10→1-12
14.8 ptsPass-leaning
60
UAB 2022–2023
Bryant Vincent→Trent Dilfer · 7-6→4-8
13.4 ptsPass-leaning

More from the Zeitgeist List

The Zeitgeist List →
Every program's tier, right now, and how it got there.
Zeitgeist History →
91 years of stature, season by season, for every program.
The turncoat ledger →
Every portal move straight from one side of a named rivalry to the other.
The talent factory →
Which programs actually turn recruits into draft picks.
The throne →
Who's held the #1 spot, and for how long.
System Coaches →
Whole-career, who runs the most extreme standard-down identity in football.
The realignment atlas →
57 years of conference membership churn for today's 138 real FBS programs.
The perception gap →
Which programs the AP and Coaches polls ranked better, or worse, than they actually played.