Model vs. market · Updated nightly
Where we disagree
Every week our power model puts a win chance on each FBS game. So does the betting market, through its closing point spread. Most of the time the two agree. This page lists the games where they don't, biggest gap first, so you can see exactly where our independent number parts ways with the consensus — and, once the games are played, which side had it.
118 FBS games with both a model number and a closing line, kickoff within 8 days either way: 60 upcoming, 58 final. In 16 of them the model and the market favor different teams.
| Kickoff | Away at home | Model favors | Market favors | Gap (pct. pts) | Why, in stored numbers | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 3:30 PM ET | TempleatNavy | Temple73% | Navy73% | 45.5Different favorite | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 1:00 PM ET | Oklahoma StateatKansas State | Kansas State74% | Oklahoma State64% | 38.3Different favorite | Upcoming | |
| Wed Nov 4Wk 10 · 7:00 PM ET | ToledoatSacramento State | Toledo64% | Toledo98% | 34.4 | Upcoming | |
| Thu Nov 5Wk 10 · 8:00 PM ET | James MadisonatSouthern Miss | James Madison54% | James Madison88% | 34.0 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 7:30 PM ET | LouisvilleatGeorgia Tech | Louisville58% | Louisville88% | 30.3 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 7:00 PM ET | Oklahoma StateatIowa State | Iowa State51% | Oklahoma State79% | 29.5Different favorite | Final · Oklahoma State 49, Iowa State 51Model had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 3:00 PM ET | Texas A&MatSouth Carolina | Texas A&M55% | South Carolina71% | 26.8Different favorite | Upcoming | |
| Tue Nov 3Wk 10 · 7:00 PM ET | OhioatAkron | Ohio58% | Ohio84% | 26.6 | Final · Ohio 28, Akron 20Both had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 3:30 PM ET | MarshallatGeorgia Southern | Georgia Southern54% | Georgia Southern80% | 26.1 | Upcoming | |
| Thu Oct 29Wk 9 · 7:30 PM ET | Florida AtlanticatNorth Texas | North Texas65% | North Texas89% | 24.7 | Final · Florida Atlantic 41, North Texas 48Both had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 3:00 PM ET | UConnatAir Force | UConn67% | Air Force58% | 24.7Different favorite | Final · UConn 26, Air Force 35Market had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 12:30 PM ET | DukeatNC State | NC State60% | Duke64% | 24.2Different favorite | Upcoming | |
| Fri Oct 30Wk 9 · 10:30 PM ET | Kent StateatSacramento State | Sacramento State51% | Kent State73% | 24.1Different favorite | Final · Kent State 10, Sacramento State 31Model had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 12:00 PM ET | North CarolinaatUConn | UConn52% | North Carolina71% | 23.2Different favorite | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 12:30 PM ET | MichiganatRutgers | Michigan68% | Michigan91% | 22.9 | Final · Michigan 28, Rutgers 21Both had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 3:45 PM ET | VirginiaatWake Forest | Wake Forest63% | Wake Forest86% | 22.8 | Final · Virginia 7, Wake Forest 51Both had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 3:30 PM ET | MinnesotaatIndiana | Indiana74% | Indiana95% | 21.5 | Final · Minnesota 16, Indiana 23Both had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 3:00 PM ET | Louisiana TechatSouth Alabama | South Alabama53% | Louisiana Tech69% | 21.2Different favorite | Final · Louisiana Tech 35, South Alabama 20Market had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 6:00 PM ET | Boise StateatColorado State | Boise State72% | Boise State92% | 19.9 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 4:15 PM ET | RutgersatWisconsin | Wisconsin71% | Wisconsin91% | 19.5 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 4:15 PM ET | PurdueatPenn State | Penn State60% | Penn State79% | 19.3 | Final · Purdue 17, Penn State 31Both had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 4:00 PM ET | New MexicoatSan José State | New Mexico70% | New Mexico89% | 19.2 | Final · New Mexico 21, San José State 16Both had it | |
| Wed Oct 28Wk 9 · 7:00 PM ET | Kennesaw StateatMiddle Tennessee | Middle Tennessee64% | Kennesaw State55% | 19.0Different favorite | Final · Kennesaw State 44, Middle Tennessee 28Market had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 10:30 PM ET | Texas StateatOregon State | Oregon State52% | Oregon State70% | 18.3 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 11:00 PM ET | Oregon StateatFresno State | Oregon State51% | Oregon State69% | 17.9 | Final · Oregon State 22, Fresno State 38Neither had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 3:15 PM ET | StanfordatLouisville | Louisville79% | Louisville97% | 17.9 | Final · Stanford 24, Louisville 52Both had it | |
| Thu Oct 29Wk 9 · 7:30 PM ET | TroyatJames Madison | James Madison74% | James Madison92% | 17.7 | Final · Troy 24, James Madison 21Neither had it | |
| Fri Nov 6Wk 10 · 7:30 PM ET | South FloridaatEast Carolina | South Florida59% | East Carolina58% | 17.2Different favorite | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 12:00 PM ET | IllinoisatMaryland | Maryland58% | Illinois60% | 17.2Different favorite | Final · Illinois 20, Maryland 17Market had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 3:30 PM ET | Arizona StateatBYU | BYU75% | BYU92% | 16.8 | Final · Arizona State 20, BYU 27Both had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 2:00 PM ET | Kansas StateatColorado | Kansas State57% | Colorado60% | 16.6Different favorite | Final · Kansas State 24, Colorado 27Market had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 3:30 PM ET | Colorado StateatUtah State | Utah State61% | Utah State78% | 16.4 | Final · Colorado State 14, Utah State 31Both had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 7:00 PM ET | ClemsonatFlorida State | Clemson52% | Florida State64% | 16.2Different favorite | Final · Clemson 36, Florida State 24Model had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 3:00 PM ET | UL MonroeatArkansas State | Arkansas State72% | Arkansas State88% | 16.2 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 4:00 PM ET | Northern IllinoisatSan José State | San José State65% | San José State80% | 15.6 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 3:30 PM ET | UTEPatNorth Dakota State | North Dakota State82% | North Dakota State97% | 14.8 | Final · UTEP 7, North Dakota State 31Both had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 4:00 PM ET | RiceatNorth Texas | North Texas76% | North Texas91% | 14.6 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 3:30 PM ET | AlabamaatLSU | LSU53% | LSU67% | 14.5 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 12:00 PM ET | SMUatSyracuse | SMU61% | SMU75% | 14.5 | Final · SMU 27, Syracuse 30Neither had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 4:00 PM ET | Louisiana TechatTroy | Louisiana Tech50% | Louisiana Tech64% | 14.1 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 12:00 PM ET | CaliforniaatNC State | NC State64% | NC State78% | 13.8 | Final · California 10, NC State 31Both had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 12:00 PM ET | TulsaatTulane | Tulane59% | Tulsa55% | 13.4Different favorite | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 10:00 PM ET | Texas StateatBoise State | Boise State66% | Boise State79% | 13.4 | Final · Texas State 45, Boise State 46Both had it | |
| Fri Oct 30Wk 9 · 7:00 PM ET | TulaneatCharlotte | Tulane62% | Tulane75% | 13.2 | Final · Tulane 38, Charlotte 31Both had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 8:00 PM ET | LibertyatNew Mexico State | Liberty78% | Liberty91% | 13.1 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 9:30 PM ET | Hawai'iatUTEP | Hawai'i65% | Hawai'i78% | 12.7 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 7:00 PM ET | Sam HoustonatJacksonville State | Jacksonville State78% | Jacksonville State91% | 12.5 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 12:00 PM ET | UCLAatMinnesota | UCLA55% | UCLA67% | 12.4 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 7:45 PM ET | MissouriatArkansas | Missouri68% | Missouri80% | 12.1 | Final · Missouri 34, Arkansas 10Both had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 7:30 PM ET | Georgia TechatPittsburgh | Pittsburgh66% | Pittsburgh78% | 11.8 | Final · Georgia Tech 11, Pittsburgh 34Both had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 10:30 PM ET | Northern IllinoisatUNLV | UNLV84% | UNLV96% | 11.6 | Final · Northern Illinois 24, UNLV 31Both had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 3:30 PM ET | FloridavsGeorgianeutral site | Georgia71% | Georgia82% | 11.4 | Final · Florida 8, Georgia 27Both had it | |
| Fri Nov 6Wk 10 · 9:00 PM ET | New MexicoatNevada | New Mexico67% | New Mexico78% | 11.3 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 12:45 PM ET | ArkansasatAuburn | Auburn69% | Auburn80% | 10.8 | Upcoming | |
| Thu Nov 5Wk 10 · 7:30 PM ET | UTSAatFlorida Atlantic | UTSA61% | UTSA71% | 10.8 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 1:00 PM ET | Old DominionatCoastal Carolina | Coastal Carolina61% | Coastal Carolina71% | 10.7 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 7:30 PM ET | Mississippi StateatTexas | Texas84% | Texas94% | 10.6 | Final · Mississippi State 3, Texas 31Both had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 2:30 PM ET | Georgia StateatApp State | App State57% | App State67% | 10.6 | Upcoming | |
| Wed Nov 4Wk 10 · 7:00 PM ET | Ball StateatMassachusetts | Massachusetts51% | Massachusetts61% | 10.1 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 4:15 PM ET | South CarolinaatOklahoma | Oklahoma51% | Oklahoma61% | 9.9 | Final · South Carolina 42, Oklahoma 25Neither had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 12:30 PM ET | MarylandatPurdue | Purdue59% | Purdue69% | 9.6 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 3:30 PM ET | Florida InternationalatLiberty | Liberty77% | Liberty86% | 9.6 | Final · Florida International 10, Liberty 49Both had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 7:30 PM ET | MiamiatNorth Carolina | Miami77% | Miami86% | 9.5 | Final · Miami 38, North Carolina 35Both had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 7:30 PM ET | Ohio StateatUSC | Ohio State61% | Ohio State70% | 9.5 | Final · Ohio State 18, USC 30Neither had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 4:15 PM ET | NevadaatUCLA | UCLA87% | UCLA97% | 9.2 | Final · Nevada 0, UCLA 27Both had it | |
| Tue Oct 27Wk 9 · 8:00 PM ET | Sam HoustonatMissouri State | Missouri State58% | Missouri State67% | 9.2 | Final · Sam Houston 3, Missouri State 24Both had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 7:45 PM ET | OklahomaatFlorida | Florida60% | Florida69% | 8.8 | Upcoming | |
| Fri Nov 6Wk 10 · 10:15 PM ET | TCUatArizona | Arizona69% | Arizona78% | 8.6 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 8:00 PM ET | ArmyatMemphis | Memphis77% | Memphis69% | 8.1 | Final · Army 22, Memphis 49Both had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 3:30 PM ET | OregonatOhio State | Ohio State65% | Ohio State73% | 8.0 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 12:00 PM ET | Florida StateatBoston College | Florida State62% | Florida State70% | 7.9 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 10:30 PM ET | WyomingatUNLV | UNLV76% | UNLV69% | 7.6 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 6:30 PM ET | App StateatGeorgia Southern | Georgia Southern62% | Georgia Southern69% | 6.7 | Final · App State 3, Georgia Southern 19Both had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 9:30 PM ET | West VirginiaatTexas Tech | Texas Tech85% | Texas Tech92% | 6.7 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 3:30 PM ET | Penn StateatWashington | Washington64% | Washington58% | 6.4 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 9:30 PM ET | Fresno StateatUtah State | Fresno State52% | Fresno State58% | 6.0 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 5:00 PM ET | South AlabamaatLouisiana | Louisiana69% | Louisiana75% | 5.9 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 2:00 PM ET | Coastal CarolinaatGeorgia State | Georgia State67% | Georgia State61% | 5.8 | Final · Coastal Carolina 31, Georgia State 20Neither had it | |
| Tue Oct 27Wk 9 · 7:00 PM ET | DelawareatWestern Kentucky | Western Kentucky64% | Western Kentucky58% | 5.6 | Final · Delaware 35, Western Kentucky 21Neither had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 3:00 PM ET | DelawareatKennesaw State | Kennesaw State51% | Delaware55% | 5.4Different favorite | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 3:30 PM ET | NorthwesternatOregon | Oregon68% | Oregon63% | 5.1 | Final · Northwestern 26, Oregon 34Both had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 3:00 PM ET | TempleatEast Carolina | East Carolina58% | East Carolina63% | 4.8 | Final · Temple 9, East Carolina 17Both had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 12:00 PM ET | UABatSouth Florida | South Florida68% | South Florida73% | 4.8 | Final · UAB 10, South Florida 30Both had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 4:00 PM ET | Missouri StateatFlorida International | Florida International59% | Florida International64% | 4.7 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 12:00 PM ET | Bowling GreenatWestern Michigan | Western Michigan82% | Western Michigan87% | 4.7 | Final · Bowling Green 10, Western Michigan 23Both had it | |
| Wed Oct 28Wk 9 · 8:00 PM ET | Jacksonville StateatNew Mexico State | Jacksonville State64% | Jacksonville State60% | 4.6 | Final · Jacksonville State 24, New Mexico State 0Both had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 3:30 PM ET | KansasatTCU | TCU65% | TCU70% | 4.5 | Final · Kansas 16, TCU 22Both had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 3:45 PM ET | UCFatKansas | Kansas63% | Kansas58% | 4.5 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 7:30 PM ET | GeorgiaatOle Miss | Georgia57% | Georgia61% | 4.4 | Upcoming | |
| Fri Nov 6Wk 10 · 8:00 PM ET | NebraskaatIllinois | Nebraska60% | Nebraska64% | 4.4 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 7:30 PM ET | ColoradoatArizona State | Arizona State64% | Arizona State60% | 4.3 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 8:00 PM ET | WashingtonatNebraska | Nebraska69% | Nebraska73% | 4.0 | Final · Washington 17, Nebraska 10Neither had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 12:00 PM ET | ClemsonatSyracuse | Clemson62% | Clemson58% | 3.8 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 3:30 PM ET | Southern MissatUL Monroe | Southern Miss65% | Southern Miss61% | 3.7 | Final · Southern Miss 35, UL Monroe 21Both had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 12:00 PM ET | BYUatUtah | Utah64% | Utah67% | 3.4 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 12:00 PM ET | WisconsinatIowa | Iowa55% | Iowa58% | 3.4 | Final · Wisconsin 0, Iowa 30Both had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 12:00 PM ET | Boston CollegeatDuke | Duke69% | Duke71% | 2.8 | Final · Boston College 2, Duke 47Both had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 12:00 PM ET | TexasatMissouri | Texas61% | Texas58% | 2.5 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 7:00 PM ET | Washington StateatSan Diego State | San Diego State60% | San Diego State58% | 2.3 | Final · Washington State 20, San Diego State 26Both had it | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 12:45 PM ET | AuburnatOle Miss | Ole Miss78% | Ole Miss80% | 2.2 | Final · Auburn 15, Ole Miss 45Both had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 3:30 PM ET | CincinnatiatHouston | Houston80% | Houston82% | 2.0 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 3:45 PM ET | UtahatCincinnati | Utah70% | Utah71% | 1.9 | Final · Utah 49, Cincinnati 25Both had it | |
| Fri Oct 30Wk 9 · 7:30 PM ET | BayloratUCF | Baylor56% | Baylor58% | 1.8 | Final · Baylor 41, UCF 9Both had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 3:30 PM ET | Western KentuckyatMiddle Tennessee | Western Kentucky57% | Western Kentucky55% | 1.7 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 6:15 PM ET | KentuckyatTennessee | Tennessee69% | Tennessee70% | 1.4 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 12:00 PM ET | ArizonaatTexas Tech | Texas Tech61% | Texas Tech63% | 1.4 | Final · Arizona 26, Texas Tech 34Both had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 7:30 PM ET | Air ForceatArmy | Army58% | Army60% | 1.4 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 12:00 PM ET | Iowa StateatBaylor | Baylor78% | Baylor79% | 1.2 | Upcoming | |
| Wed Nov 4Wk 10 · 7:30 PM ET | Central MichiganvsEastern Michiganneutral site | Eastern Michigan56% | Eastern Michigan55% | 1.0 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 7:30 PM ET | IowaatNorthwestern | Northwestern59% | Northwestern58% | 1.0 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 3:30 PM ET | CharlotteatUAB | UAB74% | UAB75% | 0.9 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 7:30 PM ET | Michigan StateatMichigan | Michigan85% | Michigan86% | 0.9 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 1:00 PM ET | MarshallatOld Dominion | Marshall60% | Marshall60% | 0.4 | Final · Marshall 36, Old Dominion 23Both had it | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 7:30 PM ET | MiamiatNotre Dame | Notre Dame67% | Notre Dame67% | 0.3 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Nov 7Wk 10 · 4:15 PM ET | VanderbiltatMississippi State | Mississippi State59% | Mississippi State60% | 0.3 | Upcoming | |
| Sat Oct 31Wk 9 · 12:00 PM ET | Notre DamevsNavyneutral site | Notre Dame99% | Notre Dame99% | 0.3 | Final · Notre Dame 35, Navy 13Both had it | |
| Tue Nov 3Wk 10 · 8:00 PM ET | BuffaloatMiami (OH) | Miami (OH)70% | Miami (OH)70% | 0.0 | Final · Buffalo 34, Miami (OH) 31Neither had it | |
| Fri Nov 6Wk 10 · 7:00 PM ET | Virginia TechatSMU | SMU69% | SMU69% | 0.0 | Upcoming |
Model probabilityMarket probabilityDifferent favorite
How we scored
Model: the home win probability from the most recent power-model run that has a number for that game. Market: the closing spread (the book's consensus line when one is stored, otherwise the average across books) converted to a win probability with the same normal-CDF formula the model itself uses, sigma 12.4 points. Gap: the absolute difference between the two, in percentage points. The "why" line only repeats numbers we store for that game (the two lines and the pre-game power ratings); when the model's own line is missing it stays blank rather than guess.
Only FBS-vs-FBS games with both numbers qualify. Finals show who was right in the narrow sense that the side's favorite won; a favorite winning is not the same thing as the probability being well calibrated.