Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 6 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
Player stats
No player stats logged for this program yet — stats appear once the season is underway.
Biggest plays from Idaho State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Idaho State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 0:13 · Utah State down 12Tre Shorty intercepts Grady BrosterhousIdaho State at Utah State, week 1Q4, 0:13 · Utah State 17, Idaho State 29▲22%Utah State’s chance to win, 18% to 40%▲22%Utah State’s chance to win, 18% to 40%G.Brosterhous pass intercepted by T.Shorty at ISU01 T.Shorty return 0 yards to the ISU01, End Of Play penalty USU Holding declined▶Watch from this play
CBS Sports College Football
Q4, 14:13 · Idaho State up 2Jordan Cooke finds Chedon James for an 8-yard touchdownIdaho State at Utah State, week 1Q4, 14:13 · Idaho State 26, Utah State 17▲15%Idaho State’s chance to win, 45% to 60%▲15%Idaho State’s chance to win, 45% to 60%J.Cooke pass complete short left to C.James caught at USU00, for 8 yards to the USU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football- Q3, 0:25 · Utah State down 2Tre Shorty intercepts McCae Hillstead and returns it 42 yardsIdaho State at Utah State, week 1Q3, 0:25 · Utah State 17, Idaho State 197Utah State’s turnover led to a touchdown7Utah State’s turnover led to a touchdownUtah State’s turnover led to a touchdownM.Hillstead pass intercepted by T.Shorty at USU45 T.Shorty return 42 yards to the USU03 (J.Nelson), out of bounds▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 8:23 · Idaho State down 1, takes the leadJordan Cooke runs 1 yard for a touchdownIdaho State at Utah State, week 1Q2, 8:23 · Idaho State 13, Utah State 7Idaho State took the lead in the second quarterIdaho State took the lead in the second quarterJ.Cooke rush middle for 1 yard gain to the USU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q2, 8:03 · Utah State down 6Jacob Perez intercepts McCae Hillstead and returns it 28 yardsIdaho State at Utah State, week 1Q2, 8:03 · Utah State 7, Idaho State 133Utah State’s turnover led to a field goal3Utah State’s turnover led to a field goalUtah State’s turnover led to a field goalM.Hillstead pass intercepted by J.Perez at USU33 J.Perez return 28 yards to the USU05 (J.Robinson)▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
- Q3, 4:39 · Utah State down 6, takes the leadMcCae Hillstead finds Demick Starling for a 4-yard touchdownIdaho State at Utah State, week 1Q3, 4:39 · Utah State 17, Idaho State 16Go-ahead score for Utah State in the third quarterGo-ahead score for Utah State in the third quarterM.Hillstead pass complete short left to D.Starling caught at ISU00, for 4 yards to the ISU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
How scary each game got
Idaho State lost to Cal Poly after being 92% to win; the closest win was at Utah Tech, down to 9%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Idaho State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Idaho State is worth +12.2 points more at home than on the road.
Top tenth of FBS, 100th percentile of 133 programs
50% at home, 7% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (1-1 home, 1-14 away). Interval ±4.5.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Idaho State has beaten the number by +2.4 more at home than away over 57 games. That is inside the ±7.1 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Holt Arena seats 12,000 and has averaged 60% full (7,164, 13 games reported). Visitors cover a median 533 miles to get here (2018-present).
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across 40 of 41 home games since 2018. No national trip rank shown: the ranked field is FBS venues only and leaves out the service academies and venues with too few measured games.
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Scheme claims
How much of Idaho State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.12; adjusted for opponent strength, it's 0.01. The widest gap came in week 4: 0.30 raw vs. 0.05 adjusted.