Next game: at Utah State
Fresno State’s best edge on Utah State is passing
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Fresno State offense against Utah State defense
Utah State offense against Fresno State defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.33 EPA/play | 7 | 8 | 134 / 212 | 63.2 | 1595 #67 FBS | 7.5 | 10 #72 FBS | 2 | 140.1 | 50 | 53.1 | 7.3 | 5.8 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Impact starter — 212 pass attempts, 59 carries and 1 catch in 8 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 79 of 159 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Jayden Mandal's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.01 EPA/play | 6 | 8 | 81 | 407 | 5.0 | 6 #55 FBS | 63 | 29.6 | 11.1 | |
Yards by week → Balanced back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 81 carries and 6 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Donelson does a little of everything without one standout trait. Jackson is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Yards / carry5.1 bottom 43th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate7.4% 84th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Bryson Donelson's full player page | ||||||||||
| Satellite Back · +0.07 EPA/play | 2 | 7 | 61 | 377 | 6.2 | 1 | 52 | 18.3 | 16.7 | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. 61 carries and 15 catches in 7 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Luke wins in space out of the backfield. Jackson is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Receiving share19.7% 95th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / carry6.7 89th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Rayshon Luke's full player page | ||||||||||
| +0.11 EPA/play | 24 | 8 | 36 | 153 | 4.2 | 4 | 33 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.67 EPA/play | 5 | 7 | 37 | 512 #67 FBS | 13.8 | 4 #70 FBS | 31 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 37 catches and 2 carries in 7 games. More catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. This week's matchup — WR Freeman moves the chains on third down. Evans is the one who beats you over the top. Season receipt Yards / reception14.1 56th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume37 84th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Josiah Freeman's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.68 EPA/play | — | 8 | 23 | 376 | 16.3 | 4 #70 FBS | 73 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Ezekiel Avit's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.62 EPA/play | 1 | 7 | 20 | 252 | 12.6 | 1 | 48 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jahlil McClain's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.91 EPA/play | 87 | 5 | 8 | 108 | 13.5 | 0 | 37 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jake Appleget's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.07 EPA/play | 86 | 7 | 9 | 87 | 9.7 | 1 | 15 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. This week's matchup — TE Correia shows up in the passing game from any alignment. Stamey is the one who is the first read once you cross the 20. Season receipt Yards / reception12.8 69th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.1 bottom 11th percentile · FBS TEs, min. 8 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Gavin Correia's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.14 EPA/play | 11 | 4 | 8 | 45 | 5.6 | 0 | 10 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 11 | 8 | 36 | 15 | 8.5 #40 FBS | 4 | 2 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Impact starter — 36 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.6% 78th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Dylan Hampsten's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 8 | 6 | 27 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. 27 tackles in 6 games. More tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight310 lb 82th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Martin Owusu's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 6 | 7 | 25 | 7 | 3.5 | 0.5 | 3 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 25 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Jahzon Jacks's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 95 | 8 | 18 | 4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate13.9% bottom 46th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Maverick Noonan's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | — | 8 | 17 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate35.3% 96th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Deijon Laffitte's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 89 | 5 | 12 | 7 | 2.5 | 1 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Mordecai Hines's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 99 | 6 | 11 | 4 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Logan Goodspeed's full player page | |||||||
| 9 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 56 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 54 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 1 | 8 | 65 | 31 | 34 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. Starter — 65 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS linebackers who play every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume65 94th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate6.2% bottom 34th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View K'Vion Thunderbird's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 35 | 8 | 38 | 21 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 38 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Tytus Khajavi's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 36 | 6 | 24 | 9 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume24 bottom 22th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Tommy Nix's full player page | |||||||||
| Coverage 'Backer | 18 | 5 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.5% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume16 bottom 11th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Logan Studt's full player page | |||||||||
| 43 | 4 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| 25 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 5 | 8 | 36 | 2 | 3 #16 FBS | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 36 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.6% bottom 38th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Simeon Harris's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 27 | 8 | 35 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 35 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Gerayas Grimes's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 7 | 8 | 25 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt View Loyall Mouzon's full player pagePD rate16.0% 86th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 31 | 8 | 22 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate18.2% 91th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Kiontre Harris's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 4 | 7 | 22 | 0 | 2 #51 FBS | 1 | 1 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman View Ethan Tierney's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 3 | 6 | 22 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
CenterfielderSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate9.1% 57th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Jaden Carrillo's full player page | |||||||
| Box Safety | 33 | 7 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 1 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume17 bottom 13th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Taylor Powell's full player page | |||||||
| 13 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| 20 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 38 | 7 | 14/17 | 82.4 | 23/24 | 65 | 52 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinner | 41 | 7 | 28 | 1181 | 42.2 | 55 | 14 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.08 EPA/play | 10 | 8 | 7 | 160 | 22.9 | 0 | 44 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.08 EPA/play | 10 | 8 | 11 | 106 | 9.6 | 0 | 68 |
Biggest plays from Fresno State’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Fresno State’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q1, 9:27 · USC tiedJayden Maiava finds Tanook Hines for an 8-yard touchdownFresno State at USC, week 1Q1, 9:27 · USC 7, Fresno State 0USC opened the scoringUSC opened the scoringJ.Maiava pass complete short right to T.Hines caught at FST00, for 8 yards to the FST00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 12:27 · USC up 7Jayden Maiava finds Trent Mosley for a 68-yard touchdownFresno State at USC, week 1Q2, 12:27 · USC 14, Fresno State 06868-yard touchdown pass6868-yard touchdown pass68-yard touchdown passJ.Maiava pass complete deep middle to T.Mosley caught at FST39, for 68 yards to the FST00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 4:07 · USC tiedJayden Maiava finds Trent Mosley for a 9-yard touchdownFresno State at USC, week 1Q2, 4:07 · USC 23, Fresno State 0Jayden Maiava's third touchdown pass of the gameJayden Maiava's third touchdown pass of the gameJ. Maiava pass to T. Mosley for 9 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden kick)▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 0:14 · USC up 23Waymond Jordan runs 2 yards for a touchdownFresno State at USC, week 1Q2, 0:14 · USC 30, Fresno State 0USC scored with 0:14 left in the halfUSC scored with 0:14 left in the halfW. Jordan run for 2 yds, for a TD (C. Chittenden kick)▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 5:20 · USC up 32K. Dixon-Wyatt fumbles and Fresno State recoversFresno State at USC, week 1Q3, 5:20 · USC 32, Fresno State 0USC turned it over in the red zoneUSC turned it over in the red zoneJ.Maiava pass complete short right to K.Dixon-Wyatt caught at FST11, for 3 yards to the FST07 fumbled by K.Dixon-Wyatt at FST07 forced by D.Laffitte recovered by FST R.Regan at FST07, End Of Play▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Fresno State lost to Boise State after being 79% to win; the closest win was against Rice, down to 24%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Fresno State during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Fresno State
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Fresno StateK'Vion Thunderbird leads Fresno State with 65 tackles through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+18 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Fresno State fields a limited explosive, big-play offense behind a strong, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Fresno State reads strongest in field position (O) (top 12%) and explosive plays allowed (top 21%); the crux lives in success rate, where Fresno State sits at the 22nd percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Fresno State is worth +4.8 points more at home than on the road.
Middle of FBS, 61st percentile of 133 programs
70% at home, 54% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (30-13 home, 28-24 away). Interval ±3.8.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Fresno State has beaten the number by +0.9 more at home than away over 100 games. That is inside the ±6.6 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Valley Children's Stadium seats 41,031 and has averaged 96% full (39,307, 28 games reported). Visitors cover a median 566 miles to get here since 2018 — 35th-longest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 24% of the 2026 roster (26 of 110 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 48 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- UnderdogJosiah Freeman produces at a notably lower rate when his team is an underdog than when favored: he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
- Garbage timeElijah Gilliam sees a real spike in usage once the game is out of reach.
- Deep threatEzekiel Avit is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Bryson Donelson and Rayshon Luke split the carries (81/141 vs 60/141) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Rayshon Luke owns the receiving work; Bryson Donelson produces in bigger chunks.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Josiah Freeman (WR) and Gavin Correia (TE) split the targets (59/75 vs 16/75) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Fresno State actually scores
56th percentile quality, 52nd percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Fresno State’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 54th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 86th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Fresno State hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
25th percentile success on standard downs, 84th on passing downs — a 59-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Fresno State by half
1st-half offense ranks 36th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 84th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Fresno State’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.11; 47th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.04. The widest gap came in week 2: -0.34 raw vs. -0.03 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Fresno State’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Fresno State’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.0% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 185-play sample) — mid-pack, 60 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Fresno State’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (66.1% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 238-play sample) — mid-pack, 62 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
64% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~48% league baseline.
7 of 11 forced fumbles recovered; 4 of 7 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
19% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — about the ~18% league average.
7 interceptions of 36 disrupted passes (29 deflected, 7 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
32 penalties committed, 50 drawn on opponents — netting a 133-yard field-position edge.
234 penalty yards committed vs. 367 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Fresno State
Most similar programs · Fresno StateReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Valley Children's Stadium, Fresno, CA
Usual during the game around Nov 21: 56°, between 50° and 60° in about 7 in 10 games (28 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 61°, and 8 in 10 ran between 34° and 76° (51 of 61 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.