CFB Zeitgeist · Fan intelligence · Capsule

The 2026-11 Capsule

Talking Season, Frozen. A frozen snapshot of what college-football fandom sounded like — belief, obsession, aura, and delusion — preserved exactly as it stood. The 2026 conversation, bottled.

Sealed 2026-11-01Season 2026Frozen: never rebuilt from live data.

The Backometer: who believed

Belief score placed on the real 5-zone scale (so_over 0-20 · cooked 20-40 · uneasy 40-60 · cooking 60-80 · so_back 80-100)

North Texas
58.2
UNEASY
n = 205
Wake Forest
57.3
COOKING
n = 425
Iowa State
56.5
UNEASY
n = 403
Stanford
56.4
UNEASY
n = 221
NC State
55.8
UNEASY
n = 342
Virginia Tech
55.0
UNEASY
n = 485

Rent Free: who lived in whose head

Mention split within each rivalry — the fuller the bar, the more one-sided the obsession

Oklahoma State vs Oklahoma
Oklahomalives rent free in Oklahoma State
29 mentions 24% vs 2% 16
Georgia Tech vs Georgia
Georgialives rent free in Georgia Tech
75 mentions 23% vs 0% 7
Oregon State vs Oregon
Oregonlives rent free in Oregon State
22 mentions 24% vs 2% 46
Michigan State vs Michigan
Michiganlives rent free in Michigan State
199 mentions 23% vs 2% 49
Oklahoma vs Texas
Texaslives rent free in Oklahoma
234 mentions 26% vs 5% 168
NC State vs North Carolina
North Carolinalives rent free in NC State
54 mentions 21% vs 3% 10

Him Watch: the aura board

Perception (gold) vs. production (blue) on a 0-100 scale — the wider the gap, the bigger the aura tax

Most aura

Arch ManningQB+36
Jadan BaughRB+11
Bryce UnderwoodQB+68
Trinidad ChamblissQB+8
Keelon RussellQB+8
DeSean BishopRB+17

Overhyped

Marcel ReedQB+78
Cam CookRB+71
Tait ReynoldsQB+63
Nico IamaleavaQB+58
Dilin JonesRB+58
Byrum BrownQB+56

Underrated

Cameran BrownQB−84
Deshawn PurdieQB−69
George PettawayRB−67
Ajani SheppardQB−66
John Alan RichterQB−63
Tayven JacksonQB−59
PerceptionProduction

Delusion Premium: belief vs the market

Fan belief score (x) vs. sportsbook title odds (y) — the further a crest sits from the dashed line, the bigger the gap between what fans felt and what the market priced

Market agrees or leads Fans ahead of the market 0%25%49%74% 0254974 Fan belief score → Michigan: fan belief 61, market 2%, gap +50 (delusional) Miami: fan belief 64, market 4%, gap +50 (delusional) Alabama: fan belief 62, market 4%, gap +40 (delusional) Texas A&M: fan belief 58, market 4%, gap +20 (bullish) Oregon: fan belief 63, market 9%, gap +10 (bullish) LSU: fan belief 64, market 37%, gap +0 (bullish) Texas: fan belief 58, market 6%, gap -10 (bullish) Georgia: fan belief 53, market 5%, gap -30 (sharp) Notre Dame: fan belief 54, market 17%, gap -60 (sharp) Ohio State: fan belief 51, market 10%, gap -70 (sharp)
DelusionalBullishSharp
Biggest gaps
Ohio State-70
Notre Dame-60
Michigan+50
Miami+50
Alabama+40
Georgia-30

The words of the moment

Corpus-wide term frequency, trailing 60 days

1elite5044
2portal4624
3natty3150
4locked in892
5hot seat870
6fraud862
7aura824
8delusional815
9cooked768
10doom390
Source: data/capsules/2026-11.json, committed once and never rebuilt. Hover states above respond to your cursor; the underlying numbers do not respond to anything.
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