The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Brian Polian

Followed Chris Ault. Brian Polian held Nevada at National Program III for 4 seasons.

23–27

2013–2016 · 1 stint

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Nevada, 4 seasons

−6.7

National Program III → Regional Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Nevada5.6pt#221 of 258 · less than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

2–2 against his rivals. Just 1–3 against Rocky Long.

Rivalry record

2–2

50.0% · 1 rival

One-score games

7–12

36.8% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–1

0.0%

Rivalry ledger

UNLV2–250%

The toughest matchup

vs. Rocky Long1–3

4 meetings, 2013–2016

’13 L’14 W · erased a 7-pt deficit’15 L’16 L

25% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Blue Blood

0–1 0.0%

Power Program

1–5 16.7%

National Program

0–7 0.0%

Regional Program

16–13 55.2%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

+0.12

#100 of 319 · a typical amount

Defense marginal impact

-0.06

#202 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2013–2016

Nevadacaretaker

National Program III → National Program III

Brian Polian held Nevada at National Program III for 4 seasons.

5th-best Nevada tenure of 11 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+16.6 pts

#47 of 208 · more than most

Defense vs. talent

-8.0 pts

#139 of 208 · a typical amount

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Chris Ault (1992–2012) · succeeded by Jay Norvell (2017–2021).

Season	2013	2014	2015	2016
Record & result
Record	4–8	7–6	7–6	5–7
Postseason	—	L bowl	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	—	#81	#98	#105
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	42.0	37.3	42.9
Coordinators
OC	—	Nick Rolovich	Nick Rolovich	Tim Cramsey
DC	—	Scott Boone / Bill Teerlinck	Scott Boone / Bill Teerlinck	Scott Boone / Bill Teerlinck
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	43	61	55
Defense	—	46	34	34
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	—	37.4	29.6	37.1
Red-zone pass%	—	39.1	27.9	36.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	43.5	33.3	36.7

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Nick Rolovich → Tim Cramsey · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 29.6% → 37.1% (+7.4 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 91% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2014: Lost to Louisiana 3–16 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl2015: Beat Colorado State 28–23 Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Duke Williams (2013), Khalid Wooten (2013), Joel Bitonio (2014)

23–27