The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Chad Lunsford

Chad Lunsford slid Florida Atlantic from Regional Program II to Regional Program III in 1 season.

The journeyman

29–22

2017–2024 · 2 stints

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Georgia Southern, 5 seasons

−7.0

Regional Program II → Regional Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Georgia Southern18.5pt#17 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

2–2 against his rivals.

Rivalry record

2–2

50.0% · 2 rivals

One-score games

8–7

53.3% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–1

0.0%

Rivalry ledger

Georgia State2–167%

App State0–10%

Performance by opponent class

Dynasty

0–1 0.0%

Blue Blood

0–1 0.0%

National Program

0–2 0.0%

Regional Program

19–10 65.5%

Coaching career

2024–2024

Florida Atlanticcaretaker

Regional Program II → Regional Program III

Chad Lunsford slid Florida Atlantic from Regional Program II to Regional Program III in 1 season.

4th-best Florida Atlantic tenure of 9 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-2.2 pts

#122 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

-23.4 pts

#184 of 208 · less than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Succeeded by Zach Kittley (2025–2026).

Roster construction · portal era

A portal-built roster.

Portal arrivals

2.9★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-14

#38 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′3″, 231 lbs

across 13 of 20 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+2.1 lbs

#179 of 255 · a typical amount

Avg. class year

#38 of 255 · more than most

Top states: FL (7), PA (2), NJ (1), GA (1), VA (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

48.5

position-weighted

Talent lost

52.8

position-weighted

Net

-4.3

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Cam Fancher (QB) from Marshall

Biggest loss: Casey Thompson (QB) to Oklahoma

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Wide receiver via the portal

86%

#4 of 243 stints

Buys D-line via the portal

80%

#16 of 239 stints

Grows Safety from high school

80%

#177 of 218 stints

1–1

2017–2021

Georgia Southerncaretaker

National Program III → Regional Program II

Chad Lunsford slid Georgia Southern from National Program III to Regional Program II in 5 seasons.

3rd-best Georgia Southern tenure of 5 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

+3.7 pts

#93 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

+5.6 pts

#79 of 208 · a typical amount

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Succeeded by Clay Helton (2022–2026).

Season	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Record & result
Record	0–6	10–3	7–6	8–5	2–6
Postseason	—	W bowl	L bowl	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#106	#90	#120	#98	#91
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	23.2	15.4	18.9	21.4	33.9
Coordinators
OC	Bryan Cook	Bob DeBesse	Bob DeBesse	Bob DeBesse	Doug Ruse
DC	Lorenzo Costantini	Scot Sloan	Scot Sloan	Scot Sloan	Scot Sloan
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	29	73	33	65	12
Defense	38	46	54	67	21
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	13.7	14.0	18.4	19.8	30.5
Red-zone pass%	14.1	9.0	12.4	15.6	23.7
4th-down go%opp. territory	32.5	25.7	25.5	34.9	50.0

Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals

3.0★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-10

#173 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′0″, 208 lbs

across 3 of 4 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

-5.6 lbs

#254 of 255 · less than most

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · more than most

Top states: FL (1), TX (1), GA (1)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

15.4

position-weighted

Talent lost

37.4

position-weighted

Net

-21.9

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: James Graham (QB) from Georgia Tech

Biggest loss: Anthony Fieldings (CB) to the portal

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

194 lbs

5′11″ avg · #745 of 767 · less than most

Running back

211 lbs

6′0″ avg · #245 of 791 · a typical amount

Wide receiver

194 lbs

5′11″ avg · #367 of 791 · a typical amount

Tight end

222 lbs

6′1″ avg · #728 of 731 · less than most

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

298 lbs

6′4″ avg · #721 of 779 · less than most

D-line

279 lbs

6′2″ avg · #486 of 753 · a typical amount

Linebacker

226 lbs

6′1″ avg · #507 of 772 · a typical amount

Cornerback

192 lbs

5′11″ avg · #290 of 771 · a typical amount

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows K from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Running back from high school

86%

#187 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2018: Beat Eastern Michigan 23–21 Raycom Media Camellia Bowl2019: Lost to Liberty 16–23 Fbc Mortgage Cure Bowl2020: Beat Louisiana Tech 38–3 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

3 NFL Draft picks: Ukeme Eligwe (2017), Kindle Vildor (2020), Tyler Bass (2020)

28–21