The Zeitgeist List · coaching

George O'Leary

Followed Mike Kruczek. George O'Leary moved UCF from National Program III to National Program II in 12 seasons.

The builder
133–101
1994–2015 · 2 stints
← all coaches

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Georgia Tech, 8 seasons
+2.2
National Program II → National Program I.
UCF, 12 seasons
+7.6
Regional Program II → National Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

50%UCF2004–2015▲ 10.3pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

5–10 against his rivals. Just 1–4 against Skip Holtz.

Rivalry record
5–10
33.3% · 2 rivals
One-score games
48–51
48.5% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
1–16
5.9%
Rivalry ledger
Georgia3–538%
The toughest matchupNemesis
vs. Skip Holtz1–4
5 meetings, 2005–2009
’05 W’06 L’07 L’08 L’09 L
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
1–16 5.9%
Power Program
13–26 33.3%
National Program
28–31 47.5%
Regional Program
83–37 69.2%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.45
#291 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.23
#276 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2004–2015
UCFcaretaker
National Program III → National Program II
George O'Leary moved UCF from National Program III to National Program II in 12 seasons.

3rd-best UCF tenure of 7 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-45.2 pts
#208 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-40.8 pts
#205 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mike Kruczek (1998–2003) · succeeded by Scott Frost (2016–2026).

Season200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015Trend
Record & result
Record0–118–54–810–44–88–511–35–710–412–19–40–8
PostseasonL bowl
Recruiting rank#68#71
Style — pass rate
Pass rate44.254.4
Coordinators
OCCharlie TaaffeBrent Key
DCTyson SummersChuck Bresnahan
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense383
Defense947
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%38.137.2
Red-zone pass%33.338.3
4th-down go%opp. territory30.233.3
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Charlie Taaffe → Brent Key · 2015
38th pct3rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 38.1% → 37.2% (-0.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 43% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Tyson Summers → Chuck Bresnahan · 2015
94th pct7th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Lost to NC State 27–34 Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl

17 NFL Draft picks: Michael Gaines (2004), Brandon Marshall (2006), Mike Walker (2007), Kevin Smith (2008), Josh Sitton (2008), Mike Merritt (2008), Joe Burnett (2009), Torell Troup (2010) + 9 more

81–68
1994–2001
Georgia Techcaretaker
National Program I → National Program I
George O'Leary held Georgia Tech at National Program I for 8 seasons.

6th-best Georgia Tech tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Bill Lewis (1992–1993) · succeeded by Chan Gailey (2002–2007).

15 NFL Draft picks: Gary Brown (1994), Dorsey Levens (1994), Lethon Flowers (1995), Charlie Simmons (1995), Jamal Cox (1995), Keith Brooking (1998), Ron Rogers (1998), Nate Stimson (1999) + 7 more

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