The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Jay Hopson

Followed Todd Monken. Jay Hopson held Southern Miss at Regional Program II for 5 seasons.

28–23

2016–2020 · 1 stint

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Southern Miss, 5 seasons

−3.5

Regional Program II → Regional Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Southern Miss7.7pt#177 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

3–1 against his rivals. Just 1–3 against Seth Littrell.

Rivalry record

3–1

75.0% · 1 rival

One-score games

7–6

53.8% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–1

0.0%

Rivalry ledger

Louisiana Tech3–175%

The toughest matchup

vs. Seth Littrell1–3

4 meetings, 2016–2019

’16 L · blew a 3-pt lead’17 L · blew a 14-pt lead’18 L’19 W · erased a 1-pt deficit

25% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Blue Blood

0–1 0.0%

Power Program

0–2 0.0%

National Program

6–1 85.7%

Regional Program

17–15 53.1%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

-0.13

#205 of 319 · a typical amount

Defense marginal impact

+0.36

#26 of 325 · more than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2016–2020

Southern Misscaretaker

Regional Program II → Regional Program II

Jay Hopson held Southern Miss at Regional Program II for 5 seasons.

10th-best Southern Miss tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and outperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+3.0 pts

#96 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

+20.8 pts

#29 of 208 · more than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Todd Monken (2013–2015) · succeeded by Will Hall (2021–2024).

Season	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Record & result
Record	7–6	8–5	6–5	7–6	1–3
Postseason	W bowl	L bowl	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#100	#74	#80	#82	#76
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	46.8	46.8	49.4	50.2	42.6
Coordinators
OC	Shannon Dawson	Shannon Dawson	Shannon Dawson	Buster Faulkner / Scotty Walden	Scotty Walden / Matt Kubik
DC	Tony Pecoraro	Tony Pecoraro	Derek Nicholson / Tim Billings	Derek Nicholson / Tim Billings	Tony Pecoraro
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	68	69	13	35	51
Defense	68	67	96	66	31
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	43.3	42.5	45.1	38.0	43.0
Red-zone pass%	33.6	43.1	42.0	39.4	37.0
4th-down go%opp. territory	40.0	21.6	32.5	25.0	38.2

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Shannon Dawson → Buster Faulkner / co-Scotty Walden · 2019

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 45.1% → 38.0% (-7.1 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 104% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Tony Pecoraro → co-Derek Nicholson / co-Tim Billings · 2018the system held

2-season window either side.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows K from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2016: Beat Louisiana 28–21 R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl2017: Lost to Florida State 13–42 Walk-On's Independence Bowl2019: Lost to Tulane 13–30 Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

6 NFL Draft picks: Michael Thomas (2016), Kalan Reed (2016), Tarvarius Moore (2018), Ito Smith (2018), Cornell Armstrong (2018), Quez Watkins (2020)

28–23