The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Lovie Smith

Followed Bill Cubit. Lovie Smith slid Illinois from Regional Program I to Regional Program II in 5 seasons.

17–39

2016–2020 · 1 stint

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Illinois, 5 seasons

−4.2

Regional Program II → Regional Program II.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Illinois13.0pt#74 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

0–4 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Kirk Ferentz.

Rivalry record

0–4

0.0% · 1 rival

One-score games

6–5

54.5% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–1

0.0%

Rivalry ledger

Northwestern0–40%

The toughest matchup

vs. Kirk Ferentz0–4

4 meetings, 2016–2019

’16 L’17 L · blew a 3-pt lead’18 L’19 L

0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Blue Blood

0–1 0.0%

Power Program

3–14 17.6%

National Program

2–12 14.3%

Regional Program

7–6 53.8%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

-0.61

#312 of 319 · less than most

Defense marginal impact

-0.16

#251 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2016–2020

Illinoiscaretaker

Regional Program I → Regional Program II

Lovie Smith slid Illinois from Regional Program I to Regional Program II in 5 seasons.

15th-best Illinois tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent

-28.5 pts

#198 of 208 · less than most

Defense vs. talent

-22.7 pts

#183 of 208 · less than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Bill Cubit (2015–2015) · succeeded by Bret Bielema (2021–2026).

Season	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Record & result
Record	3–9	2–10	4–8	6–7	0–1
Postseason	—	—	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#73	#46	#54	#53	#87
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	50.4	46.8	40.0	42.9	37.4
Coordinators
OC	Garrick McGee	Garrick McGee	Rod Smith	Rod Smith	Rod Smith
DC	Hardy Nickerson	Hardy Nickerson	Hardy Nickerson	Lovie Smith	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	9	4	51	18	39
Defense	50	37	3	60	1
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	44.1	46.0	34.0	34.4	28.9
Red-zone pass%	42.5	33.8	36.8	36.6	30.8
4th-down go%opp. territory	23.3	15.4	19.4	10.7	40.0

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Garrick McGee → Rod Smith · 2018the offense leveled up

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 45.0% → 34.2% (-10.8 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 76% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Hardy Nickerson → Lovie Smith · 2019

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows K from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2019: Lost to California 20–35 Redbox Bowl

7 NFL Draft picks: Jihad Ward (2016), Ted Karras (2016), Clayton Fejedelem (2016), Dawaune Smoot (2017), Nick Allegretti (2019), Kendrick Green (2021), Nate Hobbs (2021)

17–39