The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Ron Caragher

Followed Mike MacIntyre. Ron Caragher held San José State at Regional Program IV for 4 seasons.

19–30
2013–2016 · 1 stint
San José State
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerSAN JOSÉ STATERegional Programthe building-block levelSan José State, 2013: 6-6, Regional Program IV2013San José State, 2014: 3-9, Regional Program IV2014San José State, 2015: 6-7, Regional Program IV2015San José State, 2016: 4-8, Regional Program IV2016+2.1One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

San José State, 4 seasons
+2.1
Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%San José State2013–2016▼ 6.1pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
San José State7.3pt#186 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

Winless in 4 tries against Rocky Long.

One-score games
6–7
46.2% · margin ≤8
The toughest matchup
vs. Rocky Long0–4
4 meetings, 2013–2016
’13 L’14 L’15 L’16 L
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
0–6 0.0%
National Program
1–8 11.1%
Regional Program
12–16 42.9%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
+0.03
#133 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
-0.07
#211 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2013–2016
San José Statecaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV
Ron Caragher held San José State at Regional Program IV for 4 seasons.

14th-best San José State tenure of 19 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
+0.9 pts
#107 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-7.6 pts
#137 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mike MacIntyre (2010–2012) · succeeded by Brent Brennan (2017–2023).

Season2013201420152016Trend
Record & result
Record6–63–96–74–8
Postseason——W bowl—
Recruiting rank—#83#62#84
Style — pass rate
Pass rate—49.742.443.6
Coordinators
OC—Jimmie DoughertyAl BorgesAl Borges
DC—Greg RobinsonGreg RobinsonRon English
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense—416721
Defense—505121
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%—42.936.034.6
Red-zone pass%—43.332.137.1
4th-down go%opp. territory—33.340.532.6
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Jimmie Dougherty → Al Borges · 2015
41st pct67th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 42.9% → 36.0% (-6.8 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 80% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Greg Robinson → Ron English · 2016
51st pct21st pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2015: Beat Georgia State 27–16 Autonation Cure Bowl

6 NFL Draft picks: David Quessenberry (2013), Bene Benwikere (2014), David Fales (2014), Akeem King (2015), Tyler Ervin (2016), Wes Schweitzer (2016)

19–30