The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Ron Turner

Followed Mario Cristobal. Ron Turner held Florida International at Regional Program IV for 4 seasons.

Peak, then fade
52–91
1992–2016 · 3 stints
San José StateIllinoisFlorida International
← all coaches

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerSAN JOSÉ STILLINOISFLORIDA INTERNATIONALNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelSan José State, 1992: 7-4, National Program III1992-2.2Illinois, 1997: 0-11, National Program III1997Illinois, 1998: 3-8, National Program III1998Illinois, 1999: 8-4, National Program III1999Illinois, 2000: 5-6, National Program III2000Illinois, 2001: 10-2, National Program II2001Illinois, 2002: 5-7, National Program II2002Illinois, 2003: 1-11, National Program II2003Illinois, 2004: 3-8, National Program III2004-1.3Florida International, 2013: 1-11, Regional Program IV2013Florida International, 2014: 4-8, Regional Program IV2014Florida International, 2015: 5-7, Regional Program IV2015Florida International, 2016: 0-4, Regional Program IV2016-1.9One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Illinois, 8 seasons
−1.3
National Program III → National Program III.
Florida International, 4 seasons
−1.9
Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Florida International2013–2016▲ 9.1pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Florida International13.4pt#69 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

4–4 against his rivals. Just 1–5 against Glen Mason.

Rivalry record
4–4
50.0% · 1 rival
One-score games
20–22
47.6% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
1–7
12.5%
Rivalry ledger
Northwestern4–450%
The toughest matchupNemesis
vs. Glen Mason1–5
6 meetings, 1999–2004
’99 L’00 L’01 W’02 L’03 L’04 L
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
1–7 12.5%
Power Program
6–25 19.4%
National Program
12–25 32.4%
Regional Program
30–34 46.9%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.19
#233 of 319 · a typical amount
Defense marginal impact
-0.04
#196 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2013–2016
Florida Internationalcaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program IV
Ron Turner held Florida International at Regional Program IV for 4 seasons.

4th-best Florida International tenure of 6 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
-14.7 pts
#162 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-9.8 pts
#146 of 208 · a typical amount
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mario Cristobal (2007–2012) · succeeded by Butch Davis (2017–2021).

Season2013201420152016Trend
Record & result
Record1–114–85–70–4
Postseason————
Recruiting rank—#108#100#104
Style — pass rate
Pass rate—39.953.349.0
Coordinators
OC—Steve ShankweilerSteve ShankweilerSteve Shankweiler
DC—Josh ConklinMatt HouseRon Cooper
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense—102622
Defense—843723
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%—33.759.141.5
Red-zone pass%—31.741.739.8
4th-down go%opp. territory—18.242.440.0
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Josh Conklin → Matt House · 2015
84th pct37th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Matt House → Ron Cooper · 2016
37th pct23rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints

3 NFL Draft picks: Johnathan Cyprien (2013), Tourek Williams (2013), Jonnu Smith (2017)

10–30
1997–2004
Illinoiscaretaker
National Program II → National Program II
Ron Turner held Illinois at National Program II for 8 seasons.

6th-best Illinois tenure of 16 by the numbers.

Followed Lou Tepper (1992–1996) · succeeded by Ron Zook (2005–2011).

17 NFL Draft picks: Dennis Stallings (1997), Robert Holcombe (1998), J.P. Machado (1999), Neil Rackers (2000), Danny Clark (2000), Marques Sullivan (2001), Jameel Cook (2001), Kurt Kittner (2002) + 9 more

35–57
1992–1992
San José Statecaretaker
National Program III → National Program III
Ron Turner held San José State at National Program III for 1 season.

6th-best San José State tenure of 19 by the numbers.

Followed Terry Shea (1990–1991) · succeeded by John Ralston (1993–1996).

7–4