The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Tom Arth

Followed Terry Bowden. Tom Arth held Akron at Regional Program V for 3 seasons.

3–24
2019–2021 · 1 stint
Akron
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerAKRONRegional Programthe building-block levelAkron, 2019: 0-12, Regional Program V2019Akron, 2020: 1-5, Regional Program VI2020Akron, 2021: 2-7, Regional Program VI2021-4.0One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Regional Program in his 1st career season — faster than 20% of the 925 FBS coaches who have ever reached Regional Program (rank #1 of 925 by seasons-to-arrival).

Akron, 3 seasons
−4.0
Regional Program V → Regional Program VI.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Akron2019–2021▼ 10.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Akron13.7pt#67 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

0–4 against his rivals.

Rivalry record
0–4
0.0% · 2 rivals
One-score games
0–2
0.0% · margin ≤8
Rivalry ledger
Kent State0–20%
Buffalo0–20%
Performance by opponent class
Regional Program
1–17 5.6%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.80
#317 of 319 · less than most · smaller cross-referenced sample
Defense marginal impact
-0.30
#292 of 325 · less than most · smaller cross-referenced sample

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2019–2021
Akroncaretaker
Regional Program V → Regional Program V
Tom Arth held Akron at Regional Program V for 3 seasons.

7th-best Akron tenure of 9 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-22.9 pts
#182 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-22.2 pts
#180 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Terry Bowden (2012–2018) · succeeded by Joe Moorhead (2022–2026).

Season201920202021Trend
Record & result
Record0–121–50–3
Postseason———
Recruiting rank#113#124#118
Style — pass rate
Pass rate54.941.244.9
Coordinators
OCTommy ZagorskiTommy Zagorski / Bryan GasserTommy Zagorski
DCMatt FeeneyMatt FeeneyMatt Feeney
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense0327
Defense2934
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%53.138.343.0
Red-zone pass%58.855.248.4
4th-down go%opp. territory34.826.760.0
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
3
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
14
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-11
#178 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 228 lbs
across 1 of 3 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+1.4 lbs
#200 of 255 · less than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · more than most
Top states: OH (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
9.7
position-weighted
Talent lost
31.4
position-weighted
Net
-21.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Nikolas Ognenovic (TE) from Kentucky
Biggest loss: Brayden Hawkins (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Tommy Zagorski → Tommy Zagorski / co-Bryan Gasser · 2020
0th pct3rd pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 53.1% → 38.3% (-14.9 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 151% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
204 lbs
6′2″ avg · #618 of 767 · less than most
Running back
201 lbs
5′11″ avg · #604 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
186 lbs
6′0″ avg · #690 of 791 · less than most
Tight end
249 lbs
6′4″ avg · #224 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
309 lbs
6′5″ avg · #398 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
274 lbs
6′3″ avg · #596 of 753 · less than most
Linebacker
223 lbs
6′2″ avg · #632 of 772 · less than most
Cornerback
190 lbs
6′0″ avg · #380 of 771 · a typical amount
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Running back from high school
75%
#162 of 208 stints
Grows Linebacker from high school
83%
#183 of 225 stints

1 NFL Draft pick: Ulysees Gilbert III (2019)

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