Ted Roof.
Poach watch
Every coordinator →Boston College defensive coordinator, 2026
This winter
Our poach model, on his team’s results so far, how his unit compares with the FBS average this season and last, his program’s standing and his role. Ranked against the 329 FBS coordinators with 3+ games this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS coordinator today.
- ▼ LowerA Power Four program · 47th percentile of FBS in program stature last season
- ▼ LowerHis defense allows 2.1 points a game more than the FBS average · no FBS unit on record for him last season
How good is this number? It ranks a coordinator who moves up ahead of one who stays 71 to 73% of the time, and its average matches the share who actually move. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS coordinator from 2018 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it: from three games on, given one coordinator who moved up and one who didn’t, it ranked the one who moved ahead 71 to 73% of the time, and its average chance came within a tenth of a point of the share who actually moved.
- Counting a coordinator who follows his hired-away head coach as moving up was decided after the model’s first results were seen.
- Much of the signal comes through his head coach: coordinators often move because their boss is hired away. This site’s number for head coaches is now live, on each head coach’s page, but this number doesn’t use it.
- Moves to NFL coordinator jobs are undercounted in the history it learned from; they were found mainly for coordinators with Wikipedia pages.
- On its own it is weak at picking which coordinator lands a head-coaching job (about 60% on the same test). The number is about moving up by any route.
- It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
The tenure clock
Every stop re-aligned to its own first year, so the stops stack instead of scrolling past each other. The gray dashed line is a reference, not a path: each point is the median of whoever was still in the job that year, across every real OC/DC stint since 2014 at that role, and the pool shrinks year over year because surviving to a later year means not having been fired.
Every stop on the calendar
| Years | Program | Walked into | Year 1 | Best | Vs. talent |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014–2017 | Georgia Tech | 19.6 | 35.5 | 52.7 | ▼ 11.9 |
| 2018–2018 | NC State | 55.0 | 28.1 | 28.1 | ▼ 27.0 |
| 2019–2019 | App State | 98.1 | 85.0 | 85.0 | ▲ 42.4 |
| 2020–2020 | Vanderbilt | 34.2 | 1.2 | 1.2 | ▼ 50.9 |
| 2022–2023 | Oklahoma | 35.8 | 14.1 | 88.3 | ▼ 13.8 |
| 2024–2024 | UCF | 74.8 | 70.5 | 70.5 | ▲ 13.1 |
| 2026–2026 | Boston College | 12.9 | 68.5 | 68.5 | — |
NC State 2018–2018: ranked 55th the year before he arrived, 28th at its best — went backwards.
App State 2019–2019: ranked 98th the year before he arrived, 85th at its best — went backwards.
Vanderbilt 2020–2020: ranked 34th the year before he arrived, 1st at its best — went backwards.
UCF 2024–2024: ranked 75th the year before he arrived, 71st at its best — went backwards.