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The Coordinators’ Climb
Every season he has ever coached , laid end to end on a real calendar axis. Height is where his unit ranked nationally that year. The line breaks when he changes programs and breaks again when he isn’t coordinating anywhere — unemployment becomes part of the story instead of a hole in the data.
319 coordinators have run two or more programs since 2014. 40 climbed from below-average or worse all the way to a strong or elite unit.
A season he coached : higher is a better national rank, 100 the best in FBS
What he inherited : the unit’s rank the year before he arrived
Program and years : one block per job
Out of a job : not an FBS coordinator that year. In the strip below the tape, not measured▲ Beat or ▼ missed expectations : vs. that season’s full roster talent (247/On3-style composite, not just that year’s incoming class)
± Marginal impact : his own effect on the unit, net of roster talent, returning production and the head coach, pooled across every program he has coordinated
Most elite seasons Biggest climb Most stops
Pete Golding
Defense
5 stints at 3 programs · 10 seasons coached5 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Defense +0.55 #8 of 458 · more than most
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out UTSA Alabama Ole Miss UTSA ranked 35th percentile nationally the year before he arrived UTSA 2016: 72nd percentile nationally UTSA 2017: 83rd percentile nationally Alabama ranked 100th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Alabama 2018: 73rd percentile nationally Alabama 2019: 100th percentile nationally Alabama 2020: 97th percentile nationally Alabama 2021: 96th percentile nationally Alabama 2022: 91st percentile nationally Ole Miss ranked 44th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Ole Miss 2023: 41st percentile nationally Ole Miss 2024: 96th percentile nationally Ole Miss 2025: 65th percentile nationally 100th career best Alabama, 2019 ○ what he walked into that unit’s rank the season before he arrived Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▲ +38 beat expectations UTSA 2016–2017: beat expectations, +38 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +1 Alabama 2018–2018: beat expectations, +1 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +22 beat expectations Alabama 2019–2022: beat expectations, +22 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (4 of 4 seasons measured) ▼ −19 fell short Ole Miss 2023–2023: fell short, −19 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +20 beat expectations Ole Miss 2024–2025: beat expectations, +20 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS 100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out UTSA, 2016–2017 UTSA Alabama, 2018–2022 Alabama Ole Miss, 2023–2025 Ole Miss UTSA ranked 35th percentile nationally the year before he arrived UTSA 2016: 72nd percentile nationally UTSA 2017: 83rd percentile nationally Alabama ranked 100th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Alabama 2018: 73rd percentile nationally Alabama 2019: 100th percentile nationally Alabama 2020: 97th percentile nationally Alabama 2021: 96th percentile nationally Alabama 2022: 91st percentile nationally Ole Miss ranked 44th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Ole Miss 2023: 41st percentile nationally Ole Miss 2024: 96th percentile nationally Ole Miss 2025: 65th percentile nationally 100th career best, Alabama 2019○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentUTSA 2016–2017: beat expectations, +38 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +38 Alabama 2018–2018: beat expectations, +1 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +1 Alabama 2019–2022: beat expectations, +22 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (4 of 4 seasons measured) ▲ +22 beat expectations Ole Miss 2023–2023: fell short, −19 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Ole Miss 2024–2025: beat expectations, +20 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +20 ▼ −19 His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best UTSA ’16–17 · Alabama ’18–22 · Ole Miss ’23–25100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Alabama Ole Miss 100th career best○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +22 ▲ +38 ▲ +1 ▼ −19 ▲ +20 Pete Golding, defensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin UTSA 2016–2017 35th percentile 2016: 72nd percentile; 2017: 83rd percentile +38 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons) Alabama 2018–2018 100th percentile 2018: 73rd percentile +1 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Alabama 2019–2022 73rd percentile 2019: 100th percentile; 2020: 97th percentile; 2021: 96th percentile; 2022: 91st percentile +22 pts vs. talent (4 of 4 seasons) Ole Miss 2023–2023 44th percentile 2023: 41st percentile -19 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Ole Miss 2024–2025 41st percentile 2024: 96th percentile; 2025: 65th percentile +20 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons)
Mike Denbrock
Offense
4 stints at 3 programs · 11 seasons coached5 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Offense +0.52 #1 of 472 · more than most
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out Cincinnati LSU Notre Dame Notre Dame ranked 56th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Notre Dame 2014: 71st percentile nationally Cincinnati ranked 10th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Cincinnati 2017: 40th percentile nationally Cincinnati 2018: 84th percentile nationally Cincinnati 2019: 59th percentile nationally Cincinnati 2020: 86th percentile nationally Cincinnati 2021: 83rd percentile nationally LSU ranked 52nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived LSU 2022: 92nd percentile nationally LSU 2023: 99th percentile nationally Notre Dame ranked 94th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Notre Dame 2024: 99th percentile nationally Notre Dame 2025: 95th percentile nationally Notre Dame 2026: 98th percentile nationally 99th career best Notre Dame, 2024 ○ what he walked into that unit’s rank the season before he arrived Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▲ +20 beat expectations Cincinnati 2017–2021: beat expectations, +20 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (5 of 5 seasons measured) ▲ +28 beat expectations LSU 2022–2023: beat expectations, +28 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +31 beat expectations · 2/3 yrs Notre Dame 2024–2026: beat expectations, +31 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 3 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS Notre Dame ’14 · Cincinnati ’17–21 · LSU ’22–23 · Notre Dame ’24–26100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out Notre Dame, 2014–2014 Cincinnati, 2017–2021 Cincinnati LSU, 2022–2023 LSU Notre Dame, 2024–2026 Notre Dame Notre Dame ranked 56th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Notre Dame 2014: 71st percentile nationally Cincinnati ranked 10th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Cincinnati 2017: 40th percentile nationally Cincinnati 2018: 84th percentile nationally Cincinnati 2019: 59th percentile nationally Cincinnati 2020: 86th percentile nationally Cincinnati 2021: 83rd percentile nationally LSU ranked 52nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived LSU 2022: 92nd percentile nationally LSU 2023: 99th percentile nationally Notre Dame ranked 94th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Notre Dame 2024: 99th percentile nationally Notre Dame 2025: 95th percentile nationally Notre Dame 2026: 98th percentile nationally 99th career best, Notre Dame 2024○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentNotre Dame 2014–2014: not measured Cincinnati 2017–2021: beat expectations, +20 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (5 of 5 seasons measured) ▲ +20 beat expectations LSU 2022–2023: beat expectations, +28 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +28 Notre Dame 2024–2026: beat expectations, +31 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +31 His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best Notre Dame ’14 · Cincinnati ’17–21 · LSU ’22–23Notre Dame ’24–26100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Cincinnati LSU 99th career bestDid more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +20 ▲ +31 ▲ +28 Mike Denbrock, offensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin Notre Dame 2014–2014 56th percentile 2014: 71st percentile not measured Cincinnati 2017–2021 10th percentile 2017: 40th percentile; 2018: 84th percentile; 2019: 59th percentile; 2020: 86th percentile; 2021: 83rd percentile +20 pts vs. talent (5 of 5 seasons) LSU 2022–2023 52nd percentile 2022: 92nd percentile; 2023: 99th percentile +28 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons) Notre Dame 2024–2026 94th percentile 2024: 99th percentile; 2025: 95th percentile; 2026: 98th percentile +31 pts vs. talent (2 of 3 seasons)
Charles Kelly
Defense
4 stints at 4 programs · 10 seasons coached5 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Defense +0.04 not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out Florida State Alabama Colorado Auburn Florida State ranked 100th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Florida State 2014: 45th percentile nationally Florida State 2015: 69th percentile nationally Florida State 2016: 90th percentile nationally Florida State 2017: 84th percentile nationally Alabama ranked 73rd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Alabama 2019: 100th percentile nationally Alabama 2020: 97th percentile nationally Alabama 2021: 96th percentile nationally Alabama 2022: 91st percentile nationally Colorado ranked 2nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Colorado 2023: 17th percentile nationally Auburn ranked 69th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Auburn 2024: 82nd percentile nationally 100th career best Alabama, 2019 Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▲ +13 beat expectations · 3/4 yrs Florida State 2014–2017: beat expectations, +13 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 4 seasons measured) ▲ +22 beat expectations Alabama 2019–2022: beat expectations, +22 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (4 of 4 seasons measured) ▼ −40 fell short Colorado 2023–2023: fell short, −40 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +21 Auburn 2024–2024: beat expectations, +21 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS Florida State ’14–17 · Alabama ’19–22 · Colorado ’23 · Auburn ’24100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out Florida State, 2014–2017 Florida State Alabama, 2019–2022 Alabama Colorado, 2023–2023 Auburn, 2024–2024 Florida State ranked 100th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Florida State 2014: 45th percentile nationally Florida State 2015: 69th percentile nationally Florida State 2016: 90th percentile nationally Florida State 2017: 84th percentile nationally Alabama ranked 73rd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Alabama 2019: 100th percentile nationally Alabama 2020: 97th percentile nationally Alabama 2021: 96th percentile nationally Alabama 2022: 91st percentile nationally Colorado ranked 2nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Colorado 2023: 17th percentile nationally Auburn ranked 69th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Auburn 2024: 82nd percentile nationally 100th career best, Alabama 2019○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentFlorida State 2014–2017: beat expectations, +13 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 4 seasons measured) ▲ +13 beat expectations · 3/4 yrs Alabama 2019–2022: beat expectations, +22 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (4 of 4 seasons measured) ▲ +22 beat expectations Colorado 2023–2023: fell short, −40 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Auburn 2024–2024: beat expectations, +21 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▼ −40 ▲ +21 His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best Florida State ’14–17 · Alabama ’19–22 · Colorado ’23Auburn ’24100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Florida State Alabama 100th career bestDid more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +13 ▲ +22 ▼ −40 ▲ +21 Charles Kelly, defensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin Florida State 2014–2017 100th percentile 2014: 45th percentile; 2015: 69th percentile; 2016: 90th percentile; 2017: 84th percentile +13 pts vs. talent (3 of 4 seasons) Alabama 2019–2022 73rd percentile 2019: 100th percentile; 2020: 97th percentile; 2021: 96th percentile; 2022: 91st percentile +22 pts vs. talent (4 of 4 seasons) Colorado 2023–2023 2nd percentile 2023: 17th percentile -40 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Auburn 2024–2024 69th percentile 2024: 82nd percentile +21 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons)
Drew Mehringer
Offense
6 stints at 3 programs · 7 seasons coached4 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Offense −0.19 not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out out Rutgers Florida Atlantic Oregon Rutgers ranked 47th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Rutgers 2016: 0th percentile nationally Florida Atlantic ranked 81st percentile nationally the year before he arrived Florida Atlantic 2020: 26th percentile nationally Oregon ranked 82nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Oregon 2022: 90th percentile nationally Oregon 2023: 100th percentile nationally Oregon 2024: 97th percentile nationally Oregon 2025: 92nd percentile nationally Oregon 2026: 42nd percentile nationally 100th career best Oregon, 2023 ○ what he walked into that unit’s rank the season before he arrived Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▼ −53 fell short Rutgers 2016–2016: fell short, −53 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▼ −22 fell short Florida Atlantic 2020–2020: fell short, −22 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +22 Oregon 2022–2022: beat expectations, +22 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +31 beat expectations Oregon 2023–2024: beat expectations, +31 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +22 Oregon 2025–2025: beat expectations, +22 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS Rutgers ’16 · Florida Atlantic ’20 · Oregon ’22–26100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out out Rutgers, 2016–2016 Florida Atlantic, 2020–2020 Oregon, 2022–2026 Oregon Rutgers ranked 47th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Rutgers 2016: 0th percentile nationally Florida Atlantic ranked 81st percentile nationally the year before he arrived Florida Atlantic 2020: 26th percentile nationally Oregon ranked 82nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Oregon 2022: 90th percentile nationally Oregon 2023: 100th percentile nationally Oregon 2024: 97th percentile nationally Oregon 2025: 92nd percentile nationally Oregon 2026: 42nd percentile nationally 100th career best, Oregon 2023○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentRutgers 2016–2016: fell short, −53 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Florida Atlantic 2020–2020: fell short, −22 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Oregon 2022–2022: beat expectations, +22 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Oregon 2023–2024: beat expectations, +31 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +31 Oregon 2025–2025: beat expectations, +22 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Oregon 2026–2026: not measured ▼ −53 ▼ −22 ▲ +22 ▲ +22 His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best Rutgers ’16 · Florida Atlantic ’20 · Oregon ’22–26100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Oregon 100th career bestDid more with less? vs. roster talent▼ −53 ▼ −22 ▲ +22 ▲ +31 ▲ +22 Drew Mehringer, offensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin Rutgers 2016–2016 47th percentile 2016: 0th percentile -53 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Florida Atlantic 2020–2020 81st percentile 2020: 26th percentile -22 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Oregon 2022–2022 82nd percentile 2022: 90th percentile +22 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Oregon 2023–2024 90th percentile 2023: 100th percentile; 2024: 97th percentile +31 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons) Oregon 2025–2025 97th percentile 2025: 92nd percentile +22 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Oregon 2026–2026 92nd percentile 2026: 42nd percentile not measured
Andy Kotelnicki
Offense
6 stints at 3 programs · 11 seasons coached4 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Offense +0.24 not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out Buffalo Kansas Penn State Buffalo ranked 66th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Buffalo 2015: 34th percentile nationally Buffalo 2016: 13th percentile nationally Buffalo 2017: 67th percentile nationally Buffalo 2018: 80th percentile nationally Buffalo 2019: 75th percentile nationally Buffalo 2020: 94th percentile nationally Kansas ranked 0th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Kansas 2021: 20th percentile nationally Kansas 2022: 91st percentile nationally Kansas 2023: 97th percentile nationally Penn State ranked 85th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Penn State 2024: 97th percentile nationally Penn State 2025: 85th percentile nationally ○ what he walked into that unit’s rank the season before he arrived Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▼ −11 fell short Buffalo 2015–2016: fell short, −11 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +44 beat expectations Buffalo 2017–2020: beat expectations, +44 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (4 of 4 seasons measured) ▲ +7 beat expectations Kansas 2021–2022: beat expectations, +7 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +46 Kansas 2023–2023: beat expectations, +46 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +32 Penn State 2024–2024: beat expectations, +32 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +19 Penn State 2025–2025: beat expectations, +19 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS 100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out Buffalo, 2015–2020 Buffalo Kansas, 2021–2023 Kansas Penn State, 2024–2025 Penn State Buffalo ranked 66th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Buffalo 2015: 34th percentile nationally Buffalo 2016: 13th percentile nationally Buffalo 2017: 67th percentile nationally Buffalo 2018: 80th percentile nationally Buffalo 2019: 75th percentile nationally Buffalo 2020: 94th percentile nationally Kansas ranked 0th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Kansas 2021: 20th percentile nationally Kansas 2022: 91st percentile nationally Kansas 2023: 97th percentile nationally Penn State ranked 85th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Penn State 2024: 97th percentile nationally Penn State 2025: 85th percentile nationally 97th career best, Penn State 2024○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentBuffalo 2015–2016: fell short, −11 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▼ −11 fell short Buffalo 2017–2020: beat expectations, +44 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (4 of 4 seasons measured) ▲ +44 beat expectations Kansas 2021–2022: beat expectations, +7 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +7 Kansas 2023–2023: beat expectations, +46 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Penn State 2024–2024: beat expectations, +32 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Penn State 2025–2025: beat expectations, +19 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +46 ▲ +32 ▲ +19 His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best Buffalo ’15–20 · Kansas ’21–23 · Penn State ’24–25100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Buffalo Kansas 97th career bestDid more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +44 ▲ +7 ▼ −11 ▲ +46 ▲ +32 ▲ +19 Andy Kotelnicki, offensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin Buffalo 2015–2016 66th percentile 2015: 34th percentile; 2016: 13th percentile -11 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons) Buffalo 2017–2020 13th percentile 2017: 67th percentile; 2018: 80th percentile; 2019: 75th percentile; 2020: 94th percentile +44 pts vs. talent (4 of 4 seasons) Kansas 2021–2022 0th percentile 2021: 20th percentile; 2022: 91st percentile +7 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons) Kansas 2023–2023 91st percentile 2023: 97th percentile +46 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Penn State 2024–2024 85th percentile 2024: 97th percentile +32 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Penn State 2025–2025 97th percentile 2025: 85th percentile +19 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons)
Jim Knowles
Defense
5 stints at 5 programs · 13 seasons coached4 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Defense +0.48 #13 of 458 · more than most
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Duke Oklahoma State Ohio State Penn St Tennessee Duke ranked 16th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Duke 2014: 42nd percentile nationally Duke 2015: 27th percentile nationally Duke 2016: 30th percentile nationally Duke 2017: 82nd percentile nationally Oklahoma State ranked 47th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Oklahoma State 2018: 17th percentile nationally Oklahoma State 2019: 56th percentile nationally Oklahoma State 2020: 70th percentile nationally Oklahoma State 2021: 98th percentile nationally Ohio State ranked 57th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Ohio State 2022: 52nd percentile nationally Ohio State 2023: 96th percentile nationally Ohio State 2024: 100th percentile nationally Penn State ranked 98th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Penn State 2025: 74th percentile nationally Tennessee ranked 35th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Tennessee 2026: 93rd percentile nationally 100th career best ○ what he walked into that unit’s rank the season before he arrived Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▼ −7 fell short · 3/4 yrs Duke 2014–2017: fell short, −7 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 4 seasons measured) ▲ +5 beat expectations Oklahoma State 2018–2021: beat expectations, +5 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (4 of 4 seasons measured) ▲ +12 beat expectations Ohio State 2022–2024: beat expectations, +12 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +9 Penn State 2025–2025: beat expectations, +9 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS Duke ’14–17 · Oklahoma State ’18–21 · Ohio State ’22–24 · Penn State ’25 · Tennessee ’26100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Duke, 2014–2017 Duke Oklahoma State, 2018–2021 Oklahoma State Ohio State, 2022–2024 Ohio State Penn State, 2025–2025 Tennessee, 2026–2026 Duke ranked 16th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Duke 2014: 42nd percentile nationally Duke 2015: 27th percentile nationally Duke 2016: 30th percentile nationally Duke 2017: 82nd percentile nationally Oklahoma State ranked 47th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Oklahoma State 2018: 17th percentile nationally Oklahoma State 2019: 56th percentile nationally Oklahoma State 2020: 70th percentile nationally Oklahoma State 2021: 98th percentile nationally Ohio State ranked 57th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Ohio State 2022: 52nd percentile nationally Ohio State 2023: 96th percentile nationally Ohio State 2024: 100th percentile nationally Penn State ranked 98th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Penn State 2025: 74th percentile nationally Tennessee ranked 35th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Tennessee 2026: 93rd percentile nationally 100th career best, Ohio State 2024○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentDuke 2014–2017: fell short, −7 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 4 seasons measured) ▼ −7 fell short · 3/4 yrs Oklahoma State 2018–2021: beat expectations, +5 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (4 of 4 seasons measured) ▲ +5 beat expectations Ohio State 2022–2024: beat expectations, +12 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +12 beat expectations Penn State 2025–2025: beat expectations, +9 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +9 Tennessee 2026–2026: not measured His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best Duke ’14–17 · Oklahoma State ’18–21Ohio State ’22–24 · Penn State ’25 · Tennessee ’26100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Duke 100th career best○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. roster talent▼ −7 ▲ +5 ▲ +12 ▲ +9 Jim Knowles, defensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin Duke 2014–2017 16th percentile 2014: 42nd percentile; 2015: 27th percentile; 2016: 30th percentile; 2017: 82nd percentile -7 pts vs. talent (3 of 4 seasons) Oklahoma State 2018–2021 47th percentile 2018: 17th percentile; 2019: 56th percentile; 2020: 70th percentile; 2021: 98th percentile +5 pts vs. talent (4 of 4 seasons) Ohio State 2022–2024 57th percentile 2022: 52nd percentile; 2023: 96th percentile; 2024: 100th percentile +12 pts vs. talent (3 of 3 seasons) Penn State 2025–2025 98th percentile 2025: 74th percentile +9 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Tennessee 2026–2026 35th percentile 2026: 93rd percentile not measured
Manny Diaz
Defense
4 stints at 4 programs · 7 seasons coached4 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Defense +0.43 not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out out Miami Penn State Louisiana Tech ranked 72nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Louisiana Tech 2014: 93rd percentile nationally Mississippi State ranked 52nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Mississippi State 2015: 43rd percentile nationally Miami ranked 41st percentile nationally the year before he arrived Miami 2016: 86th percentile nationally Miami 2017: 69th percentile nationally Miami 2018: 94th percentile nationally Penn State ranked 95th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Penn State 2022: 97th percentile nationally Penn State 2023: 98th percentile nationally 98th career best Penn State, 2023 Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▼ −15 fell short Mississippi State 2015–2015: fell short, −15 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +23 beat expectations Miami 2016–2018: beat expectations, +23 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +35 beat expectations Penn State 2022–2023: beat expectations, +35 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS Louisiana Tech ’14 · Mississippi State ’15 · Miami ’16–18 · Penn State ’22–23100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out out Louisiana Tech, 2014–2014 Mississippi State, 2015–2015 Miami, 2016–2018 Miami Penn State, 2022–2023 Penn State Louisiana Tech ranked 72nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Louisiana Tech 2014: 93rd percentile nationally Mississippi State ranked 52nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Mississippi State 2015: 43rd percentile nationally Miami ranked 41st percentile nationally the year before he arrived Miami 2016: 86th percentile nationally Miami 2017: 69th percentile nationally Miami 2018: 94th percentile nationally Penn State ranked 95th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Penn State 2022: 97th percentile nationally Penn State 2023: 98th percentile nationally 98th career best, Penn State 2023Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentLouisiana Tech 2014–2014: not measured Mississippi State 2015–2015: fell short, −15 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Miami 2016–2018: beat expectations, +23 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +23 beat expectations Penn State 2022–2023: beat expectations, +35 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +35 ▼ −15 His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best Louisiana Tech ’14 · Mississippi State ’15Miami ’16–18 · Penn State ’22–23100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Miami 98th career bestDid more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +23 ▼ −15 ▲ +35 Manny Diaz, defensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin Louisiana Tech 2014–2014 72nd percentile 2014: 93rd percentile not measured Mississippi State 2015–2015 52nd percentile 2015: 43rd percentile -15 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Miami 2016–2018 41st percentile 2016: 86th percentile; 2017: 69th percentile; 2018: 94th percentile +23 pts vs. talent (3 of 3 seasons) Penn State 2022–2023 95th percentile 2022: 97th percentile; 2023: 98th percentile +35 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons)
Bryant Haines
Defense
2 stints at 2 programs · 5 seasons coached4 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Defense +0.57⚠ less certain not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out out out out James Madison Indiana James Madison 2022: 96th percentile nationally James Madison 2023: 89th percentile nationally Indiana ranked 14th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Indiana 2024: 95th percentile nationally Indiana 2025: 96th percentile nationally Indiana 2026: 95th percentile nationally 96th career best Indiana, 2025 ○ what he walked into that unit’s rank the season before he arrived ○ no prior-season record for his first stop (James Madison, 2022) Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▲ +61 beat expectations James Madison 2022–2023: beat expectations, +61 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +45 beat expectations · 2/3 yrs Indiana 2024–2026: beat expectations, +45 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 3 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS James Madison ’22–23 · Indiana ’24–26100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out out out out James Madison, 2022–2023 Indiana, 2024–2026 Indiana James Madison 2022: 96th percentile nationally James Madison 2023: 89th percentile nationally Indiana ranked 14th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Indiana 2024: 95th percentile nationally Indiana 2025: 96th percentile nationally Indiana 2026: 95th percentile nationally 96th career best, Indiana 2025○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentJames Madison 2022–2023: beat expectations, +61 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +61 Indiana 2024–2026: beat expectations, +45 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +45 Dashed circle: no record for the season before his first stop (James Madison, 2022)His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best James Madison ’22–23 · Indiana ’24–26100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Indiana 96th career best○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +45 ▲ +61 Dashed circle: no record for the season before his firststop (James Madison, 2022) Bryant Haines, defensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin James Madison 2022–2023 no prior-season record 2022: 96th percentile; 2023: 89th percentile +61 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons) Indiana 2024–2026 14th percentile 2024: 95th percentile; 2025: 96th percentile; 2026: 95th percentile +45 pts vs. talent (2 of 3 seasons)
Kendal Briles
Offense
7 stints at 7 programs · 12 seasons coached3 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Offense +0.29 not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out Baylor Houston Florida State Arkansas TCU South Carolina Baylor ranked 96th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Baylor 2015: 91st percentile nationally Baylor 2016: 71st percentile nationally Florida Atlantic ranked 45th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Florida Atlantic 2017: 99th percentile nationally Houston ranked 60th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Houston 2018: 91st percentile nationally Florida State ranked 21st percentile nationally the year before he arrived Florida State 2019: 60th percentile nationally Arkansas ranked 6th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Arkansas 2020: 69th percentile nationally Arkansas 2021: 78th percentile nationally Arkansas 2022: 71st percentile nationally TCU ranked 86th percentile nationally the year before he arrived TCU 2023: 65th percentile nationally TCU 2024: 84th percentile nationally TCU 2025: 69th percentile nationally South Carolina ranked 28th percentile nationally the year before he arrived South Carolina 2026: 81st percentile nationally 99th career best Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▲ +25 beat expectations Baylor 2015–2016: beat expectations, +25 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +51 Florida Atlantic 2017–2017: beat expectations, +51 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +38 Houston 2018–2018: beat expectations, +38 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▼ −9 fell short Florida State 2019–2019: fell short, −9 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +13 beat expectations Arkansas 2020–2022: beat expectations, +13 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +13 beat expectations TCU 2023–2025: beat expectations, +13 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 3 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS Baylor ’15–16 · Florida Atlantic ’17 · Houston ’18 · Florida State ’19 · Arkansas ’20–22 · TCU ’23–25South Carolina ’26100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out Baylor, 2015–2016 Baylor Florida Atlantic, 2017–2017 Houston, 2018–2018 Florida State, 2019–2019 Arkansas, 2020–2022 Arkansas TCU, 2023–2025 TCU South Carolina, 2026–2026 Baylor ranked 96th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Baylor 2015: 91st percentile nationally Baylor 2016: 71st percentile nationally Florida Atlantic ranked 45th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Florida Atlantic 2017: 99th percentile nationally Houston ranked 60th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Houston 2018: 91st percentile nationally Florida State ranked 21st percentile nationally the year before he arrived Florida State 2019: 60th percentile nationally Arkansas ranked 6th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Arkansas 2020: 69th percentile nationally Arkansas 2021: 78th percentile nationally Arkansas 2022: 71st percentile nationally TCU ranked 86th percentile nationally the year before he arrived TCU 2023: 65th percentile nationally TCU 2024: 84th percentile nationally TCU 2025: 69th percentile nationally South Carolina ranked 28th percentile nationally the year before he arrived South Carolina 2026: 81st percentile nationally 99th career best, Florida Atlantic 2017Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentBaylor 2015–2016: beat expectations, +25 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +25 Florida Atlantic 2017–2017: beat expectations, +51 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Houston 2018–2018: beat expectations, +38 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Florida State 2019–2019: fell short, −9 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▼ −9 Arkansas 2020–2022: beat expectations, +13 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +13 beat expectations TCU 2023–2025: beat expectations, +13 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +13 beat expectations South Carolina 2026–2026: not measured ▲ +51 ▲ +38 His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best Baylor ’15–16 · Florida Atlantic ’17 · Houston ’18Florida State ’19 · Arkansas ’20–22 · TCU ’23–25South Carolina ’26100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 TCU 99th career bestDid more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +13 ▲ +13 ▲ +25 ▲ +51 ▲ +38 ▼ −9 Kendal Briles, offensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin Baylor 2015–2016 96th percentile 2015: 91st percentile; 2016: 71st percentile +25 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons) Florida Atlantic 2017–2017 45th percentile 2017: 99th percentile +51 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Houston 2018–2018 60th percentile 2018: 91st percentile +38 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Florida State 2019–2019 21st percentile 2019: 60th percentile -9 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Arkansas 2020–2022 6th percentile 2020: 69th percentile; 2021: 78th percentile; 2022: 71st percentile +13 pts vs. talent (3 of 3 seasons) TCU 2023–2025 86th percentile 2023: 65th percentile; 2024: 84th percentile; 2025: 69th percentile +13 pts vs. talent (3 of 3 seasons) South Carolina 2026–2026 28th percentile 2026: 81st percentile not measured
Bryan Brown
Defense
7 stints at 4 programs · 9 seasons coached3 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Defense −0.18 not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out App St Louisville Cincinnati Ole Miss App State ranked 81st percentile nationally the year before he arrived App State 2018: 98th percentile nationally Louisville ranked 2nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Louisville 2019: 4th percentile nationally Louisville 2020: 62nd percentile nationally Louisville 2021: 21st percentile nationally Louisville 2022: 97th percentile nationally Cincinnati ranked 87th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Cincinnati 2023: 0th percentile nationally Ole Miss ranked 41st percentile nationally the year before he arrived Ole Miss 2024: 96th percentile nationally Ole Miss 2025: 65th percentile nationally Ole Miss 2026: 51st percentile nationally 98th career best App State, 2018 Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▲ +58 App State 2018–2018: beat expectations, +58 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▼ −22 fell short Louisville 2019–2020: fell short, −22 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▼ −30 fell short Louisville 2021–2021: fell short, −30 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +46 Louisville 2022–2022: beat expectations, +46 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▼ −53 fell short Cincinnati 2023–2023: fell short, −53 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +20 beat expectations Ole Miss 2024–2025: beat expectations, +20 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS App State ’18 · Louisville ’19–22 · Cincinnati ’23 · Ole Miss ’24–26100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out App State, 2018–2018 Louisville, 2019–2022 Louisville Cincinnati, 2023–2023 Ole Miss, 2024–2026 Ole Miss App State ranked 81st percentile nationally the year before he arrived App State 2018: 98th percentile nationally Louisville ranked 2nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Louisville 2019: 4th percentile nationally Louisville 2020: 62nd percentile nationally Louisville 2021: 21st percentile nationally Louisville 2022: 97th percentile nationally Cincinnati ranked 87th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Cincinnati 2023: 0th percentile nationally Ole Miss ranked 41st percentile nationally the year before he arrived Ole Miss 2024: 96th percentile nationally Ole Miss 2025: 65th percentile nationally Ole Miss 2026: 51st percentile nationally 98th career best, App State 2018○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentApp State 2018–2018: beat expectations, +58 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Louisville 2019–2020: fell short, −22 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▼ −22 fell short Louisville 2021–2021: fell short, −30 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Louisville 2022–2022: beat expectations, +46 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Cincinnati 2023–2023: fell short, −53 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Ole Miss 2024–2025: beat expectations, +20 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +20 Ole Miss 2026–2026: not measured ▲ +58 ▼ −30 ▲ +46 ▼ −53 His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best App State ’18 · Louisville ’19–22 · Cincinnati ’23Ole Miss ’24–26100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Louisville Ole Miss 98th career bestDid more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +58 ▼ −22 ▼ −30 ▲ +46 ▼ −53 ▲ +20 Bryan Brown, defensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin App State 2018–2018 81st percentile 2018: 98th percentile +58 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Louisville 2019–2020 2nd percentile 2019: 4th percentile; 2020: 62nd percentile -22 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons) Louisville 2021–2021 62nd percentile 2021: 21st percentile -30 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Louisville 2022–2022 21st percentile 2022: 97th percentile +46 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Cincinnati 2023–2023 87th percentile 2023: 0th percentile -53 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Ole Miss 2024–2025 41st percentile 2024: 96th percentile; 2025: 65th percentile +20 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons) Ole Miss 2026–2026 65th percentile 2026: 51st percentile not measured
Kirk Ciarrocca
Offense
5 stints at 4 programs · 12 seasons coached3 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Offense +0.27 not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out Western Michigan Minnesota Penn St Minnesota Rutgers Western Michigan ranked 4th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Western Michigan 2014: 77th percentile nationally Western Michigan 2015: 96th percentile nationally Western Michigan 2016: 96th percentile nationally Minnesota ranked 21st percentile nationally the year before he arrived Minnesota 2017: 10th percentile nationally Minnesota 2018: 60th percentile nationally Minnesota 2019: 92nd percentile nationally Penn State ranked 78th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Penn State 2020: 64th percentile nationally Minnesota ranked 37th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Minnesota 2022: 60th percentile nationally Rutgers ranked 1st percentile nationally the year before he arrived Rutgers 2023: 28th percentile nationally Rutgers 2024: 56th percentile nationally Rutgers 2025: 60th percentile nationally Rutgers 2026: 54th percentile nationally 96th career best Western Michigan, 2016 Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▲ +49 beat expectations · 2/3 yrs Western Michigan 2014–2016: beat expectations, +49 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +1 beat expectations Minnesota 2017–2019: beat expectations, +1 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 3 seasons measured) ▼ −1 fell short Penn State 2020–2020: fell short, −1 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +6 Minnesota 2022–2022: beat expectations, +6 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▼ −4 fell short · 3/4 yrs Rutgers 2023–2026: fell short, −4 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 4 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS Western Michigan ’14–16 · Minnesota ’17–19 · Penn State ’20 · Minnesota ’22 · Rutgers ’23–26100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out Western Michigan, 2014–2016 Western Michigan Minnesota, 2017–2019 Minnesota Penn State, 2020–2020 Minnesota, 2022–2022 Rutgers, 2023–2026 Rutgers Western Michigan ranked 4th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Western Michigan 2014: 77th percentile nationally Western Michigan 2015: 96th percentile nationally Western Michigan 2016: 96th percentile nationally Minnesota ranked 21st percentile nationally the year before he arrived Minnesota 2017: 10th percentile nationally Minnesota 2018: 60th percentile nationally Minnesota 2019: 92nd percentile nationally Penn State ranked 78th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Penn State 2020: 64th percentile nationally Minnesota ranked 37th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Minnesota 2022: 60th percentile nationally Rutgers ranked 1st percentile nationally the year before he arrived Rutgers 2023: 28th percentile nationally Rutgers 2024: 56th percentile nationally Rutgers 2025: 60th percentile nationally Rutgers 2026: 54th percentile nationally 96th career best, Western Michigan 2016Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentWestern Michigan 2014–2016: beat expectations, +49 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +49 Minnesota 2017–2019: beat expectations, +1 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +1 beat expectations Penn State 2020–2020: fell short, −1 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▼ −1 Minnesota 2022–2022: beat expectations, +6 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +6 Rutgers 2023–2026: fell short, −4 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 4 seasons measured) ▼ −4 fell short · 3/4 yrs His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best Western Michigan ’14–16 · Minnesota ’17–19Penn State ’20 · Minnesota ’22 · Rutgers ’23–26100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Rutgers 96th career bestDid more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +49 ▲ +1 ▼ −4 ▼ −1 ▲ +6 Kirk Ciarrocca, offensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin Western Michigan 2014–2016 4th percentile 2014: 77th percentile; 2015: 96th percentile; 2016: 96th percentile +49 pts vs. talent (2 of 3 seasons) Minnesota 2017–2019 21st percentile 2017: 10th percentile; 2018: 60th percentile; 2019: 92nd percentile +1 pts vs. talent (3 of 3 seasons) Penn State 2020–2020 78th percentile 2020: 64th percentile -1 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Minnesota 2022–2022 37th percentile 2022: 60th percentile +6 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Rutgers 2023–2026 1st percentile 2023: 28th percentile; 2024: 56th percentile; 2025: 60th percentile; 2026: 54th percentile -4 pts vs. talent (3 of 4 seasons)
Charlie Weis Jr.
Offense
5 stints at 4 programs · 9 seasons coached3 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Offense +0.08 not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out Florida Atlantic South Florida Ole Miss LSU Florida Atlantic ranked 99th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Florida Atlantic 2018: 64th percentile nationally Florida Atlantic 2019: 81st percentile nationally South Florida ranked 24th percentile nationally the year before he arrived South Florida 2020: 20th percentile nationally South Florida 2021: 27th percentile nationally Ole Miss ranked 54th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Ole Miss 2022: 81st percentile nationally Ole Miss 2023: 90th percentile nationally Ole Miss 2024: 96th percentile nationally Ole Miss 2025: 97th percentile nationally LSU ranked 22nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived LSU 2026: 92nd percentile nationally 97th career best Ole Miss, 2025 Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▲ +24 beat expectations Florida Atlantic 2018–2019: beat expectations, +24 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▼ −25 fell short South Florida 2020–2021: fell short, −25 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +25 beat expectations Ole Miss 2022–2023: beat expectations, +25 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +35 beat expectations Ole Miss 2024–2025: beat expectations, +35 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS Florida Atlantic ’18–19 · South Florida ’20–21 · Ole Miss ’22–25 · LSU ’26100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out Florida Atlantic, 2018–2019 South Florida, 2020–2021 Ole Miss, 2022–2025 Ole Miss LSU, 2026–2026 LSU Florida Atlantic ranked 99th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Florida Atlantic 2018: 64th percentile nationally Florida Atlantic 2019: 81st percentile nationally South Florida ranked 24th percentile nationally the year before he arrived South Florida 2020: 20th percentile nationally South Florida 2021: 27th percentile nationally Ole Miss ranked 54th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Ole Miss 2022: 81st percentile nationally Ole Miss 2023: 90th percentile nationally Ole Miss 2024: 96th percentile nationally Ole Miss 2025: 97th percentile nationally LSU ranked 22nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived LSU 2026: 92nd percentile nationally 97th career best, Ole Miss 2025○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentFlorida Atlantic 2018–2019: beat expectations, +24 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +24 South Florida 2020–2021: fell short, −25 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▼ −25 fell short Ole Miss 2022–2023: beat expectations, +25 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +25 Ole Miss 2024–2025: beat expectations, +35 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +35 LSU 2026–2026: not measured His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best Florida Atlantic ’18–19 · South Florida ’20–21Ole Miss ’22–25 · LSU ’26100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Ole Miss 97th career best○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +24 ▼ −25 ▲ +25 ▲ +35 Charlie Weis Jr., offensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin Florida Atlantic 2018–2019 99th percentile 2018: 64th percentile; 2019: 81st percentile +24 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons) South Florida 2020–2021 24th percentile 2020: 20th percentile; 2021: 27th percentile -25 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons) Ole Miss 2022–2023 54th percentile 2022: 81st percentile; 2023: 90th percentile +25 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons) Ole Miss 2024–2025 90th percentile 2024: 96th percentile; 2025: 97th percentile +35 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons) LSU 2026–2026 22nd percentile 2026: 92nd percentile not measured
Shannon Dawson
Offense
5 stints at 5 programs · 12 seasons coached3 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Offense +0.27 not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out Southern Miss Houston Miami West Virginia ranked 26th percentile nationally the year before he arrived West Virginia 2014: 50th percentile nationally Kentucky ranked 29th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Kentucky 2015: 39th percentile nationally Southern Miss ranked 92nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Southern Miss 2016: 68th percentile nationally Southern Miss 2017: 69th percentile nationally Southern Miss 2018: 13th percentile nationally Houston ranked 42nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Houston 2020: 44th percentile nationally Houston 2021: 63rd percentile nationally Houston 2022: 93rd percentile nationally Miami ranked 24th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Miami 2023: 69th percentile nationally Miami 2024: 98th percentile nationally Miami 2025: 89th percentile nationally Miami 2026: 100th percentile nationally ○ what he walked into that unit’s rank the season before he arrived Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▼ −17 fell short Kentucky 2015–2015: fell short, −17 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +6 beat expectations Southern Miss 2016–2018: beat expectations, +6 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +15 beat expectations Houston 2020–2022: beat expectations, +15 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +21 beat expectations · 3/4 yrs Miami 2023–2026: beat expectations, +21 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 4 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS West Virginia ’14 · Kentucky ’15 · Southern Miss ’16–18 · Houston ’20–22 · Miami ’23–26100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out West Virginia, 2014–2014 Kentucky, 2015–2015 Southern Miss, 2016–2018 Southern Miss Houston, 2020–2022 Houston Miami, 2023–2026 Miami West Virginia ranked 26th percentile nationally the year before he arrived West Virginia 2014: 50th percentile nationally Kentucky ranked 29th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Kentucky 2015: 39th percentile nationally Southern Miss ranked 92nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Southern Miss 2016: 68th percentile nationally Southern Miss 2017: 69th percentile nationally Southern Miss 2018: 13th percentile nationally Houston ranked 42nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Houston 2020: 44th percentile nationally Houston 2021: 63rd percentile nationally Houston 2022: 93rd percentile nationally Miami ranked 24th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Miami 2023: 69th percentile nationally Miami 2024: 98th percentile nationally Miami 2025: 89th percentile nationally Miami 2026: 100th percentile nationally 100th career best, Miami 2026○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentWest Virginia 2014–2014: not measured Kentucky 2015–2015: fell short, −17 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Southern Miss 2016–2018: beat expectations, +6 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +6 beat expectations Houston 2020–2022: beat expectations, +15 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +15 beat expectations Miami 2023–2026: beat expectations, +21 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 4 seasons measured) ▲ +21 beat expectations · 3/4 yrs ▼ −17 His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best West Virginia ’14 · Kentucky ’15Southern Miss ’16–18 · Houston ’20–22 · Miami ’23–26100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Houston Miami 100th career bestDid more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +6 ▲ +15 ▲ +21 ▼ −17 Shannon Dawson, offensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin West Virginia 2014–2014 26th percentile 2014: 50th percentile not measured Kentucky 2015–2015 29th percentile 2015: 39th percentile -17 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Southern Miss 2016–2018 92nd percentile 2016: 68th percentile; 2017: 69th percentile; 2018: 13th percentile +6 pts vs. talent (3 of 3 seasons) Houston 2020–2022 42nd percentile 2020: 44th percentile; 2021: 63rd percentile; 2022: 93rd percentile +15 pts vs. talent (3 of 3 seasons) Miami 2023–2026 24th percentile 2023: 69th percentile; 2024: 98th percentile; 2025: 89th percentile; 2026: 100th percentile +21 pts vs. talent (3 of 4 seasons)
Darrell Dickey
Offense
5 stints at 2 programs · 8 seasons coached3 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Offense +0.09 not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out Memphis Texas A&M Memphis ranked 17th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Memphis 2014: 44th percentile nationally Memphis 2015: 55th percentile nationally Memphis ranked 77th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Memphis 2017: 97th percentile nationally Texas A&M ranked 54th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Texas A&M 2018: 90th percentile nationally Texas A&M 2019: 44th percentile nationally Texas A&M 2020: 90th percentile nationally Texas A&M 2021: 39th percentile nationally Texas A&M 2022: 41st percentile nationally ○ what he walked into that unit’s rank the season before he arrived Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▲ +13 Memphis 2015–2015: beat expectations, +13 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +47 Memphis 2017–2017: beat expectations, +47 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ±0 about as expected Texas A&M 2018–2021: about as expected, ±0 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (4 of 4 seasons measured) ▼ −30 fell short Texas A&M 2022–2022: fell short, −30 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS Memphis ’14–15 · Memphis ’17 · Texas A&M ’18–22100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out Memphis, 2014–2015 Memphis Memphis, 2017–2017 Texas A&M, 2018–2022 Texas A&M Memphis ranked 17th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Memphis 2014: 44th percentile nationally Memphis 2015: 55th percentile nationally Memphis ranked 77th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Memphis 2017: 97th percentile nationally Texas A&M ranked 54th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Texas A&M 2018: 90th percentile nationally Texas A&M 2019: 44th percentile nationally Texas A&M 2020: 90th percentile nationally Texas A&M 2021: 39th percentile nationally Texas A&M 2022: 41st percentile nationally 97th career best, Memphis 2017○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentMemphis 2014–2014: not measured Memphis 2015–2015: beat expectations, +13 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Memphis 2017–2017: beat expectations, +47 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Texas A&M 2018–2021: about as expected, ±0 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (4 of 4 seasons measured) ±0 about as expected Texas A&M 2022–2022: fell short, −30 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +13 ▲ +47 ▼ −30 His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best Memphis ’14–15 · Memphis ’17 · Texas A&M ’18–22100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Texas A&M 97th career best○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. roster talent±0 ▲ +13 ▲ +47 ▼ −30 Darrell Dickey, offensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin Memphis 2014–2014 17th percentile 2014: 44th percentile not measured Memphis 2015–2015 44th percentile 2015: 55th percentile +13 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Memphis 2017–2017 77th percentile 2017: 97th percentile +47 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Texas A&M 2018–2021 54th percentile 2018: 90th percentile; 2019: 44th percentile; 2020: 90th percentile; 2021: 39th percentile 0 pts vs. talent (4 of 4 seasons) Texas A&M 2022–2022 39th percentile 2022: 41st percentile -30 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons)
Colin Hitschler
Defense
5 stints at 5 programs · 5 seasons coached3 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Defense +0.27 not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out out out out Cincinnati Wisconsin Alabama UCLA Cincinnati ranked 90th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Cincinnati 2022: 87th percentile nationally Wisconsin ranked 79th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Wisconsin 2023: 60th percentile nationally Alabama ranked 73rd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Alabama 2024: 99th percentile nationally James Madison ranked 91st percentile nationally the year before he arrived James Madison 2025: 93rd percentile nationally UCLA ranked 19th percentile nationally the year before he arrived UCLA 2026: 100th percentile nationally ○ what he walked into that unit’s rank the season before he arrived Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▲ +34 Cincinnati 2022–2022: beat expectations, +34 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +2 Wisconsin 2023–2023: beat expectations, +2 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +24 Alabama 2024–2024: beat expectations, +24 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +58 James Madison 2025–2025: beat expectations, +58 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS Cincinnati ’22 · Wisconsin ’23 · Alabama ’24 · James Madison ’25 · UCLA ’26100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out out out out Cincinnati, 2022–2022 Wisconsin, 2023–2023 Alabama, 2024–2024 James Madison, 2025–2025 UCLA, 2026–2026 Cincinnati ranked 90th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Cincinnati 2022: 87th percentile nationally Wisconsin ranked 79th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Wisconsin 2023: 60th percentile nationally Alabama ranked 73rd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Alabama 2024: 99th percentile nationally James Madison ranked 91st percentile nationally the year before he arrived James Madison 2025: 93rd percentile nationally UCLA ranked 19th percentile nationally the year before he arrived UCLA 2026: 100th percentile nationally 100th career best, UCLA 2026○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentCincinnati 2022–2022: beat expectations, +34 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Wisconsin 2023–2023: beat expectations, +2 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +2 Alabama 2024–2024: beat expectations, +24 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) James Madison 2025–2025: beat expectations, +58 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) UCLA 2026–2026: not measured ▲ +34 ▲ +24 ▲ +58 His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best Cincinnati ’22 · Wisconsin ’23 · Alabama ’24James Madison ’25 · UCLA ’26100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 100th career best○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +34 ▲ +2 ▲ +24 ▲ +58 Colin Hitschler, defensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin Cincinnati 2022–2022 90th percentile 2022: 87th percentile +34 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Wisconsin 2023–2023 79th percentile 2023: 60th percentile +2 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Alabama 2024–2024 73rd percentile 2024: 99th percentile +24 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) James Madison 2025–2025 91st percentile 2025: 93rd percentile +58 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) UCLA 2026–2026 19th percentile 2026: 100th percentile not measured
Jim Zebrowski
Offense
4 stints at 2 programs · 8 seasons coached3 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Offense +0.01 not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out Buffalo Kansas Buffalo ranked 13th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Buffalo 2017: 67th percentile nationally Buffalo 2018: 80th percentile nationally Buffalo 2019: 75th percentile nationally Buffalo 2020: 94th percentile nationally Kansas ranked 91st percentile nationally the year before he arrived Kansas 2023: 97th percentile nationally Kansas 2024: 94th percentile nationally Kansas 2025: 68th percentile nationally Kansas 2026: 56th percentile nationally 97th career best Kansas, 2023 Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▲ +44 beat expectations Buffalo 2017–2020: beat expectations, +44 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (4 of 4 seasons measured) ▲ +46 Kansas 2023–2023: beat expectations, +46 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +40 Kansas 2024–2024: beat expectations, +40 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +14 beat expectations Kansas 2025–2026: beat expectations, +14 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 2 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS 100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out Buffalo, 2017–2020 Buffalo Kansas, 2023–2026 Kansas Buffalo ranked 13th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Buffalo 2017: 67th percentile nationally Buffalo 2018: 80th percentile nationally Buffalo 2019: 75th percentile nationally Buffalo 2020: 94th percentile nationally Kansas ranked 91st percentile nationally the year before he arrived Kansas 2023: 97th percentile nationally Kansas 2024: 94th percentile nationally Kansas 2025: 68th percentile nationally Kansas 2026: 56th percentile nationally 97th career best, Kansas 2023○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentBuffalo 2017–2020: beat expectations, +44 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (4 of 4 seasons measured) ▲ +44 beat expectations Kansas 2023–2023: beat expectations, +46 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Kansas 2024–2024: beat expectations, +40 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Kansas 2025–2026: beat expectations, +14 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +14 ▲ +46 ▲ +40 His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best 100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Buffalo Kansas 97th career best○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +44 ▲ +46 ▲ +40 ▲ +14 Jim Zebrowski, offensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin Buffalo 2017–2020 13th percentile 2017: 67th percentile; 2018: 80th percentile; 2019: 75th percentile; 2020: 94th percentile +44 pts vs. talent (4 of 4 seasons) Kansas 2023–2023 91st percentile 2023: 97th percentile +46 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Kansas 2024–2024 97th percentile 2024: 94th percentile +40 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Kansas 2025–2026 94th percentile 2025: 68th percentile; 2026: 56th percentile +14 pts vs. talent (1 of 2 seasons)
Chip Kelly
Offense
4 stints at 3 programs · 4 seasons coached3 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Offense +0.24 not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out out out out out UCLA UCLA Ohio St Northwestern UCLA ranked 78th percentile nationally the year before he arrived UCLA 2018: 60th percentile nationally UCLA ranked 87th percentile nationally the year before he arrived UCLA 2022: 95th percentile nationally Ohio State ranked 87th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Ohio State 2024: 100th percentile nationally Northwestern ranked 38th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Northwestern 2026: 97th percentile nationally 100th career best ○ what he walked into that unit’s rank the season before he arrived Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▼ −2 fell short UCLA 2018–2018: fell short, −2 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +36 UCLA 2022–2022: beat expectations, +36 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +27 Ohio State 2024–2024: beat expectations, +27 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS UCLA ’18 · UCLA ’22 · Ohio State ’24 · Northwestern ’26100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out out out out out UCLA, 2018–2018 UCLA, 2022–2022 Ohio State, 2024–2024 Northwestern, 2026–2026 UCLA ranked 78th percentile nationally the year before he arrived UCLA 2018: 60th percentile nationally UCLA ranked 87th percentile nationally the year before he arrived UCLA 2022: 95th percentile nationally Ohio State ranked 87th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Ohio State 2024: 100th percentile nationally Northwestern ranked 38th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Northwestern 2026: 97th percentile nationally 100th career best, Ohio State 2024○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentUCLA 2018–2018: fell short, −2 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▼ −2 UCLA 2022–2022: beat expectations, +36 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Ohio State 2024–2024: beat expectations, +27 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Northwestern 2026–2026: not measured ▲ +36 ▲ +27 His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best UCLA ’18 · UCLA ’22 · Ohio State ’24Northwestern ’26100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 100th career best○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. roster talent▼ −2 ▲ +36 ▲ +27 Chip Kelly, offensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin UCLA 2018–2018 78th percentile 2018: 60th percentile -2 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) UCLA 2022–2022 87th percentile 2022: 95th percentile +36 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Ohio State 2024–2024 87th percentile 2024: 100th percentile +27 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Northwestern 2026–2026 38th percentile 2026: 97th percentile not measured
Will Stein
Offense
3 stints at 2 programs · 4 seasons coached3 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Offense +0.24 not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out out out out out UTSA Oregon UTSA ranked 75th percentile nationally the year before he arrived UTSA 2022: 82nd percentile nationally Oregon ranked 90th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Oregon 2023: 100th percentile nationally Oregon 2024: 97th percentile nationally Oregon 2025: 92nd percentile nationally 100th career best Oregon, 2023 ○ what he walked into that unit’s rank the season before he arrived Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▲ +34 UTSA 2022–2022: beat expectations, +34 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +31 beat expectations Oregon 2023–2024: beat expectations, +31 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +22 Oregon 2025–2025: beat expectations, +22 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS UTSA ’22 · Oregon ’23–25100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out out out out out UTSA, 2022–2022 Oregon, 2023–2025 Oregon UTSA ranked 75th percentile nationally the year before he arrived UTSA 2022: 82nd percentile nationally Oregon ranked 90th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Oregon 2023: 100th percentile nationally Oregon 2024: 97th percentile nationally Oregon 2025: 92nd percentile nationally 100th career best, Oregon 2023○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentUTSA 2022–2022: beat expectations, +34 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Oregon 2023–2024: beat expectations, +31 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +31 Oregon 2025–2025: beat expectations, +22 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +34 ▲ +22 His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best UTSA ’22 · Oregon ’23–25100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Oregon 100th career best○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +34 ▲ +31 ▲ +22 Will Stein, offensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin UTSA 2022–2022 75th percentile 2022: 82nd percentile +34 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Oregon 2023–2024 90th percentile 2023: 100th percentile; 2024: 97th percentile +31 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons) Oregon 2025–2025 97th percentile 2025: 92nd percentile +22 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons)
Greg Gasparato
Defense
3 stints at 3 programs · 4 seasons coached3 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Defense +0.39 not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out out out out out Army Troy Tulane Army ranked 33rd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Army 2020: 90th percentile nationally Troy ranked 94th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Troy 2023: 97th percentile nationally Tulane ranked 57th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Tulane 2024: 92nd percentile nationally Tulane 2025: 60th percentile nationally 97th career best Troy, 2023 ○ what he walked into that unit’s rank the season before he arrived Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▲ +62 Army 2020–2020: beat expectations, +62 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +54 Troy 2023–2023: beat expectations, +54 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +25 beat expectations Tulane 2024–2025: beat expectations, +25 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS Army ’20 · Troy ’23 · Tulane ’24–25100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out out out out out Army, 2020–2020 Troy, 2023–2023 Troy Tulane, 2024–2025 Tulane Army ranked 33rd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Army 2020: 90th percentile nationally Troy ranked 94th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Troy 2023: 97th percentile nationally Tulane ranked 57th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Tulane 2024: 92nd percentile nationally Tulane 2025: 60th percentile nationally 97th career best, Troy 2023○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentArmy 2020–2020: beat expectations, +62 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Troy 2023–2023: beat expectations, +54 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Tulane 2024–2025: beat expectations, +25 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +25 ▲ +62 ▲ +54 His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best Army ’20 · Troy ’23 · Tulane ’24–25100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 97th career best○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +62 ▲ +54 ▲ +25 Greg Gasparato, defensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin Army 2020–2020 33rd percentile 2020: 90th percentile +62 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Troy 2023–2023 94th percentile 2023: 97th percentile +54 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Tulane 2024–2025 57th percentile 2024: 92nd percentile; 2025: 60th percentile +25 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons)
Don Brown
Defense
3 stints at 3 programs · 8 seasons coached3 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Defense +0.26 not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out Boston College Michigan Arizona Boston College ranked 13th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Boston College 2014: 60th percentile nationally Boston College 2015: 100th percentile nationally Michigan ranked 89th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Michigan 2016: 96th percentile nationally Michigan 2017: 90th percentile nationally Michigan 2018: 83rd percentile nationally Michigan 2019: 70th percentile nationally Michigan 2020: 31st percentile nationally Arizona ranked 22nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Arizona 2021: 39th percentile nationally ○ what he walked into that unit’s rank the season before he arrived Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▲ +48 beat expectations Boston College 2014–2015: beat expectations, +48 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +9 beat expectations Michigan 2016–2020: beat expectations, +9 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (5 of 5 seasons measured) ▼ −11 fell short Arizona 2021–2021: fell short, −11 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS Boston College ’14–15 · Michigan ’16–20 · Arizona ’21100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out Boston College, 2014–2015 Michigan, 2016–2020 Michigan Arizona, 2021–2021 Boston College ranked 13th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Boston College 2014: 60th percentile nationally Boston College 2015: 100th percentile nationally Michigan ranked 89th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Michigan 2016: 96th percentile nationally Michigan 2017: 90th percentile nationally Michigan 2018: 83rd percentile nationally Michigan 2019: 70th percentile nationally Michigan 2020: 31st percentile nationally Arizona ranked 22nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Arizona 2021: 39th percentile nationally 100th career best, Boston College 2015○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentBoston College 2014–2015: beat expectations, +48 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +48 Michigan 2016–2020: beat expectations, +9 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (5 of 5 seasons measured) ▲ +9 beat expectations Arizona 2021–2021: fell short, −11 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▼ −11 His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best Boston College ’14–15 · Michigan ’16–20 · Arizona ’21100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Michigan 100th career best○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +9 ▲ +48 ▼ −11 Don Brown, defensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin Boston College 2014–2015 13th percentile 2014: 60th percentile; 2015: 100th percentile +48 pts vs. talent (1 of 2 seasons) Michigan 2016–2020 89th percentile 2016: 96th percentile; 2017: 90th percentile; 2018: 83rd percentile; 2019: 70th percentile; 2020: 31st percentile +9 pts vs. talent (5 of 5 seasons) Arizona 2021–2021 22nd percentile 2021: 39th percentile -11 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons)
Willy Korn
Offense
2 stints at 2 programs · 7 seasons coached3 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out out Coastal Carolina Liberty Coastal Carolina ranked 41st percentile nationally the year before he arrived Coastal Carolina 2019: 45th percentile nationally Coastal Carolina 2020: 97th percentile nationally Coastal Carolina 2021: 99th percentile nationally Coastal Carolina 2022: 69th percentile nationally Liberty ranked 39th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Liberty 2023: 96th percentile nationally Liberty 2024: 39th percentile nationally Liberty 2025: 56th percentile nationally 99th career best ○ what he walked into that unit’s rank the season before he arrived Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▲ +41 beat expectations Coastal Carolina 2019–2022: beat expectations, +41 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (4 of 4 seasons measured) ▲ +22 beat expectations Liberty 2023–2025: beat expectations, +22 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 3 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS 100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out out Coastal Carolina, 2019–2022 Coastal Carolina Liberty, 2023–2025 Liberty Coastal Carolina ranked 41st percentile nationally the year before he arrived Coastal Carolina 2019: 45th percentile nationally Coastal Carolina 2020: 97th percentile nationally Coastal Carolina 2021: 99th percentile nationally Coastal Carolina 2022: 69th percentile nationally Liberty ranked 39th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Liberty 2023: 96th percentile nationally Liberty 2024: 39th percentile nationally Liberty 2025: 56th percentile nationally 99th career best, Coastal Carolina 2021○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentCoastal Carolina 2019–2022: beat expectations, +41 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (4 of 4 seasons measured) ▲ +41 beat expectations Liberty 2023–2025: beat expectations, +22 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +22 beat expectations His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best Coastal Carolina ’19–22 · Liberty ’23–25100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Liberty 99th career best○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +41 ▲ +22 Willy Korn, offensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin Coastal Carolina 2019–2022 41st percentile 2019: 45th percentile; 2020: 97th percentile; 2021: 99th percentile; 2022: 69th percentile +41 pts vs. talent (4 of 4 seasons) Liberty 2023–2025 39th percentile 2023: 96th percentile; 2024: 39th percentile; 2025: 56th percentile +22 pts vs. talent (3 of 3 seasons)
Joe Cox
Offense
2 stints at 2 programs · 3 seasons coached3 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out out out out out out Ole Miss LSU Ole Miss ranked 90th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Ole Miss 2024: 96th percentile nationally Ole Miss 2025: 97th percentile nationally LSU ranked 22nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived LSU 2026: 92nd percentile nationally 97th career best Ole Miss, 2025 ○ what he walked into that unit’s rank the season before he arrived Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▲ +35 beat expectations Ole Miss 2024–2025: beat expectations, +35 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS 100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out out out out out out out out out Ole Miss, 2024–2025 Ole Miss LSU, 2026–2026 LSU Ole Miss ranked 90th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Ole Miss 2024: 96th percentile nationally Ole Miss 2025: 97th percentile nationally LSU ranked 22nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived LSU 2026: 92nd percentile nationally 97th career best, Ole Miss 2025○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentOle Miss 2024–2025: beat expectations, +35 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +35 LSU 2026–2026: not measured His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best Ole Miss ’24–25 · LSU ’26100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 97th career best○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +35 Joe Cox, offensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin Ole Miss 2024–2025 90th percentile 2024: 96th percentile; 2025: 97th percentile +35 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons) LSU 2026–2026 22nd percentile 2026: 92nd percentile not measured
Mike Tressel
Defense
7 stints at 3 programs · 11 seasons coached2 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Defense +0.35 not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out Michigan State Cincinnati Wisconsin Michigan State ranked 81st percentile nationally the year before he arrived Michigan State 2015: 60th percentile nationally Michigan State 2016: 57th percentile nationally Michigan State 2017: 63rd percentile nationally Michigan State 2018: 97th percentile nationally Michigan State 2019: 82nd percentile nationally Cincinnati ranked 95th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Cincinnati 2021: 90th percentile nationally Cincinnati 2022: 87th percentile nationally Wisconsin ranked 79th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Wisconsin 2023: 60th percentile nationally Wisconsin 2024: 48th percentile nationally Wisconsin 2025: 56th percentile nationally Wisconsin 2026: 97th percentile nationally 97th career best Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▲ +1 beat expectations Michigan State 2015–2017: beat expectations, +1 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +32 beat expectations Michigan State 2018–2019: beat expectations, +32 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +37 Cincinnati 2021–2021: beat expectations, +37 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +34 Cincinnati 2022–2022: beat expectations, +34 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +2 Wisconsin 2023–2023: beat expectations, +2 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▼ −10 fell short Wisconsin 2024–2024: fell short, −10 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▼ −3 fell short · 1/2 yrs Wisconsin 2025–2026: fell short, −3 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 2 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS 100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out out Michigan State, 2015–2019 Michigan State Cincinnati, 2021–2022 Cincinnati Wisconsin, 2023–2026 Wisconsin Michigan State ranked 81st percentile nationally the year before he arrived Michigan State 2015: 60th percentile nationally Michigan State 2016: 57th percentile nationally Michigan State 2017: 63rd percentile nationally Michigan State 2018: 97th percentile nationally Michigan State 2019: 82nd percentile nationally Cincinnati ranked 95th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Cincinnati 2021: 90th percentile nationally Cincinnati 2022: 87th percentile nationally Wisconsin ranked 79th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Wisconsin 2023: 60th percentile nationally Wisconsin 2024: 48th percentile nationally Wisconsin 2025: 56th percentile nationally Wisconsin 2026: 97th percentile nationally 97th career best, Michigan State 2018○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentMichigan State 2015–2017: beat expectations, +1 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 3 seasons measured) ▲ +1 beat expectations Michigan State 2018–2019: beat expectations, +32 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (2 of 2 seasons measured) ▲ +32 Cincinnati 2021–2021: beat expectations, +37 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Cincinnati 2022–2022: beat expectations, +34 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Wisconsin 2023–2023: beat expectations, +2 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +2 Wisconsin 2024–2024: fell short, −10 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Wisconsin 2025–2026: fell short, −3 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 2 seasons measured) ▼ −3 ▲ +37 ▲ +34 ▼ −10 His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best Michigan State ’15–19 · Cincinnati ’21–22Wisconsin ’23–26100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 Michigan State Wisconsin 97th career bestDid more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +1 ▼ −3 ▲ +32 ▲ +37 ▲ +34 ▲ +2 ▼ −10 Mike Tressel, defensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin Michigan State 2015–2017 81st percentile 2015: 60th percentile; 2016: 57th percentile; 2017: 63rd percentile +1 pts vs. talent (3 of 3 seasons) Michigan State 2018–2019 63rd percentile 2018: 97th percentile; 2019: 82nd percentile +32 pts vs. talent (2 of 2 seasons) Cincinnati 2021–2021 95th percentile 2021: 90th percentile +37 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Cincinnati 2022–2022 90th percentile 2022: 87th percentile +34 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Wisconsin 2023–2023 79th percentile 2023: 60th percentile +2 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Wisconsin 2024–2024 60th percentile 2024: 48th percentile -10 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Wisconsin 2025–2026 48th percentile 2025: 56th percentile; 2026: 97th percentile -3 pts vs. talent (1 of 2 seasons)
Nate Woody
Defense
6 stints at 4 programs · 12 seasons coached2 seasons ranked in the national top 10%
Marginal impact Defense +0.41 not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04
100th best in the country90th elite, top 10%75th top quarter50th national median25th bottom quarter0 worst in the countryHis unit’s national rank, by season ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out App State Georgia Tech Army Cincinnati App State 2014: 76th percentile nationally App State 2015: 97th percentile nationally App State 2016: 89th percentile nationally App State 2017: 81st percentile nationally Georgia Tech ranked 50th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Georgia Tech 2018: 12th percentile nationally Army ranked 33rd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Army 2020: 90th percentile nationally Army 2021: 30th percentile nationally Army 2022: 68th percentile nationally Army 2023: 18th percentile nationally Army 2024: 47th percentile nationally Army 2025: 50th percentile nationally Cincinnati ranked 22nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Cincinnati 2026: 18th percentile nationally ○ what he walked into that unit’s rank the season before he arrived ○ no prior-season record for his first stop (App State, 2014) Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talent ▲ +52 beat expectations · 3/4 yrs App State 2014–2017: beat expectations, +52 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 4 seasons measured) ▼ −42 fell short Georgia Tech 2018–2018: fell short, −42 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +62 Army 2020–2020: beat expectations, +62 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +1 Army 2021–2021: beat expectations, +1 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +18 beat expectations Army 2022–2025: beat expectations, +18 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (4 of 4 seasons measured) His unit’s national percentile each season · 100 = best in FBS App State ’14–17 · Georgia Tech ’18 · Army ’20–25 · Cincinnati ’26100 best90 top 10%75 top quarter50 median25 bottom quarter0 worst’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 out App State, 2014–2017 App State Georgia Tech, 2018–2018 Army, 2020–2025 Army Cincinnati, 2026–2026 App State 2014: 76th percentile nationally App State 2015: 97th percentile nationally App State 2016: 89th percentile nationally App State 2017: 81st percentile nationally Georgia Tech ranked 50th percentile nationally the year before he arrived Georgia Tech 2018: 12th percentile nationally Army ranked 33rd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Army 2020: 90th percentile nationally Army 2021: 30th percentile nationally Army 2022: 68th percentile nationally Army 2023: 18th percentile nationally Army 2024: 47th percentile nationally Army 2025: 50th percentile nationally Cincinnati ranked 22nd percentile nationally the year before he arrived Cincinnati 2026: 18th percentile nationally 97th career best, App State 2015○ what he walked into Did more with less? vs. that season’s full roster talentApp State 2014–2017: beat expectations, +52 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (3 of 4 seasons measured) ▲ +52 beat expectations · 3/4 yrs Georgia Tech 2018–2018: fell short, −42 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Army 2020–2020: beat expectations, +62 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) Army 2021–2021: beat expectations, +1 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (1 of 1 seasons measured) ▲ +1 Army 2022–2025: beat expectations, +18 points vs. that season’s full roster talent (4 of 4 seasons measured) ▲ +18 beat expectations Cincinnati 2026–2026: not measured ▼ −42 ▲ +62 Dashed circle: no record for the season before his first stop (App State, 2014)His unit’s national percentile · 100 = best App State ’14–17 · Georgia Tech ’18 · Army ’20–25Cincinnati ’26100 90 75 50 25 0 ’14 ’15 ’16 ’17 ’18 ’19 ’20 ’21 ’22 ’23 ’24 ’25 ’26 App State Army 97th career bestDid more with less? vs. roster talent▲ +52 ▲ +18 ▼ −42 ▲ +62 ▲ +1 Dashed circle: no record for the season before his firststop (App State, 2014) Nate Woody, defensive coordinator career, season-by-season national percentile and talent-adjusted margin Program Years Inherited (prior season) Seasons coached Talent-adjusted margin App State 2014–2017 no prior-season record 2014: 76th percentile; 2015: 97th percentile; 2016: 89th percentile; 2017: 81st percentile +52 pts vs. talent (3 of 4 seasons) Georgia Tech 2018–2018 50th percentile 2018: 12th percentile -42 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Army 2020–2020 33rd percentile 2020: 90th percentile +62 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Army 2021–2021 90th percentile 2021: 30th percentile +1 pts vs. talent (1 of 1 seasons) Army 2022–2025 30th percentile 2022: 68th percentile; 2023: 18th percentile; 2024: 47th percentile; 2025: 50th percentile +18 pts vs. talent (4 of 4 seasons) Cincinnati 2026–2026 22nd percentile 2026: 18th percentile not measured
Every other coordinator who ran two or more programs
The gallery above shows the top 24 by elite seasons. 214 more never became a head coach and have their own Tenure Clock page.
How to read this. Every value plotted is read directly from the source record: season-by-season national percentile of the unit he ran (offensive or defensive opponent-adjusted efficiency, PPA-based, ranked against FBS peers only), the unit’s percentile the season before he arrived, and the talent-adjusted margin. This is a coordinator’s OC/DC path (min. two programs, no minimum stint length) — head-coaching stops aren’t shown here. “Did more with less” compares a unit’s FBS-relative percentile against what the program’s overall recruiting talent (247/On3-style team composite, no offense/defense split exists) predicts for a team with that much talent, pooled across every FBS team-season 2015–2025 and fit separately for offense and defense — not a claim any coordinator single-handedly caused the gap. Only seasons inside the 2015–2025 window count toward that average, shown as a season count alongside the figure. A co-credited season (co-OC/co-DC) contributes a node to every credited person’s own career.← Back to the coordinator board
