The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Karl Dorrell

Followed Mel Tucker. Karl Dorrell held Colorado at Regional Program II for 3 seasons.

Peak, then fade
43–42
2003–2022 · 2 stints
UCLAColorado
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerUCLACOLORADOPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelUCLA, 2003: 6-7, Power Program III2003UCLA, 2004: 6-6, Power Program III2004UCLA, 2005: 10-2, Power Program III2005UCLA, 2006: 7-6, Power Program III2006UCLA, 2007: 6-6, Power Program III2007-4.8Colorado, 2020: 4-2, Regional Program II2020Colorado, 2021: 4-8, Regional Program II2021Colorado, 2022: 0-5, Regional Program III2022-6.0One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Power Program in his 1st career season — faster than 57% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #1 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

UCLA, 5 seasons
−4.8
Power Program III → Power Program III.
Colorado, 3 seasons
−6.0
Regional Program II → Regional Program III.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Colorado2020–2022▲ 9.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Colorado10.1pt#130 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

1–5 against his rivals. Just 1–3 against Bill Doba.

Rivalry record
1–5
16.7% · 2 rivals
One-score games
14–9
60.9% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–2
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
USC1–325%
Utah0–20%
The toughest matchup
vs. Bill Doba1–3
4 meetings, 2003–2006
’03 L’04 L’05 W’06 L
25% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–2 0.0%
Blue Blood
2–3 40.0%
Power Program
5–9 35.7%
National Program
20–14 58.8%
Regional Program
8–1 88.9%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.50
#299 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
+0.12
#83 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2020–2022
Coloradocaretaker
Regional Program II → Regional Program II
Karl Dorrell held Colorado at Regional Program II for 3 seasons.

18th-best Colorado tenure of 20 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-40.8 pts
#207 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-14.1 pts
#161 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Mel Tucker (2019–2019) · succeeded by Deion Sanders (2023–2026).

Season202020212022Trend
Record & result
Record4–24–81–6
PostseasonL bowl——
Recruiting rank#36#65#47
Style — pass rate
Pass rate39.238.048.2
Coordinators
OCDarrin ChiaveriniDarrin ChiaveriniClay Patterson / Mike Sanford
DCTyson SummersChris WilsonChris Wilson
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense22105
Defense89272
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%25.528.844.6
Red-zone pass%15.531.229.1
4th-down go%opp. territory23.829.437.9
Roster construction · portal era

Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.

Portal arrivals
12
3.1★ avg rating
Portal departures
37
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-25
#160 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in

Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)
6′4″, 258 lbs
across 7 of 12 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+14.8 lbs
#1 of 255 · more than most
Avg. class year
Sr
#9 of 255 · more than most
Top states: TX (2), AR (1), IA (1), TN (1), CA (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
37.7
position-weighted
Talent lost
52.7
position-weighted
Net
-15.0
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Maddox Kopp (QB) from Houston
Biggest loss: Sam Noyer (QB) to Oregon State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Roster size, by position
Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)
Quarterback
214 lbs
6′3″ avg · #333 of 767 · a typical amount
Running back
199 lbs
5′11″ avg · #639 of 791 · less than most
Wide receiver
196 lbs
6′1″ avg · #238 of 791 · a typical amount
Tight end
246 lbs
6′4″ avg · #341 of 731 · a typical amount
Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters
Interior line
310 lbs
6′6″ avg · #328 of 779 · a typical amount
D-line
294 lbs
6′4″ avg · #178 of 753 · more than most
Linebacker
234 lbs
6′2″ avg · #158 of 772 · more than most
Cornerback
184 lbs
6′1″ avg · #665 of 771 · less than most
Safety
204 lbs
6′1″ avg · #27 of 346 · more than most
Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
80%
#146 of 188 stints
Grows Linebacker from high school
80%
#170 of 225 stints
Postseason detail2020: Lost to Texas 23–55 Valero Alamo Bowl

4 NFL Draft picks: Laviska Shenault Jr. (2020), Davion Taylor (2020), Arlington Hambright (2020), William Sherman (2021)

8–15
2003–2007
UCLAcaretaker
Power Program II → Power Program III
Karl Dorrell slid UCLA from Power Program II to Power Program III in 5 seasons.

9th-best UCLA tenure of 20 by the numbers.

Followed Bob Toledo (1996–2002) · succeeded by Rick Neuheisel (2008–2011).

17 NFL Draft picks: Mike Seidman (2003), Ricky Manning, Jr. (2003), Matt Ware (2004), Brandon Chillar (2004), Dave Ball (2004), Rodney Leisle (2004), Manuel White (2005), Ben Emanuel (2005) + 9 more

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