The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Matt Luke

Followed Hugh Freeze. Matt Luke held Ole Miss at Power Program III for 3 seasons.

15–21

2017–2019 · 1 stint

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Reached Power Program in his 1st career season — faster than 57% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #1 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Ole Miss, 3 seasons

−4.3

Power Program III → National Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints

Ole Miss16.8pt#31 of 258 · more than most

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

0–6 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Ed Orgeron.

Rivalry record

0–6

0.0% · 3 rivals

One-score games

2–8

20.0% · margin ≤8

vs. Blue Blood or better

0–2

0.0%

Rivalry ledger

LSU0–30%

Mississippi State0–20%

Memphis0–10%

The toughest matchup

vs. Ed Orgeron0–3

3 meetings, 2017–2019

’17 L’18 L · blew a 3-pt lead’19 L

0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.

Performance by opponent class

Dynasty

0–2 0.0%

Blue Blood

0–4 0.0%

Power Program

0–9 0.0%

National Program

2–4 33.3%

Regional Program

8–1 88.9%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact

+0.21

#82 of 319 · a typical amount

Defense marginal impact

-0.17

#254 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2017–2019

Ole Misscaretaker

Power Program III → Power Program III

Matt Luke held Ole Miss at Power Program III for 3 seasons.

7th-best Ole Miss tenure of 17 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+7.5 pts

#73 of 208 · a typical amount

Defense vs. talent

-28.0 pts

#195 of 208 · less than most

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Hugh Freeze (2012–2016) · succeeded by Lane Kiffin (2020–2025).

Season	2017	2018	2019
Record & result
Record	6–6	5–7	4–8
Postseason	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#31	#32	#22
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	54.0	51.3	37.2
Coordinators
OC	Phil Longo	Phil Longo	Rich Rodriguez
DC	Wesley McGriff / Jason Jones	Wesley McGriff / Jason Jones	Mike MacIntyre
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	77	76	53
Defense	22	26	50
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%	55.4	57.0	26.6
Red-zone pass%	56.5	46.8	22.5
4th-down go%opp. territory	14.3	27.9	39.6

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Phil Longo → Rich Rodriguez · 2019

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

1st-down pass rate: 57.0% → 26.6% (-30.4 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 28% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Wesley McGriff / co-Jason Jones → Mike MacIntyre · 2019

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Grows Tackle from high school

100%

#198 of 223 stints

14 NFL Draft picks: Evan Engram (2017), D.J. Jones (2017), Derrick Jones (2017), Chad Kelly (2017), Breeland Speaks (2018), Marquis Haynes (2018), Jordan Wilkins (2018), Rod Taylor (2018) + 6 more

15–21