The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Scott Shafer

Followed Doug Marrone. Scott Shafer held Syracuse at National Program III for 3 seasons.

13–23
2013–2015 · 1 stint
Syracuse
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Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerSYRACUSENational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelSyracuse, 2013: 6-6, National Program III2013Syracuse, 2014: 3-9, National Program III2014Syracuse, 2015: 4-8, Regional Program I2015-7.1One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached National Program in his 1st career season — faster than 41% of the 675 FBS coaches who have ever reached National Program (rank #1 of 675 by seasons-to-arrival).

Syracuse, 3 seasons
−7.1
National Program III → Regional Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

40%50%Syracuse2013–2015▼ 6.7pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

Winless in 3 tries against Dabo Swinney.

One-score games
4–5
44.4% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–4
0.0%
The toughest matchup
vs. Dabo Swinney0–3
3 meetings, 2013–2015
’13 L’14 L · blew a 3-pt lead’15 L
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Blue Blood
0–4 0.0%
Power Program
0–7 0.0%
National Program
4–11 26.7%
Regional Program
7–1 87.5%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Offense marginal impact
-0.25
#251 of 319 · less than most
Defense marginal impact
-0.06
#202 of 325 · a typical amount

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2013–2015
Syracusecaretaker
National Program III → National Program III
Scott Shafer held Syracuse at National Program III for 3 seasons.

7th-best Syracuse tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.

Offense vs. talent
-31.2 pts
#199 of 208 · less than most
Defense vs. talent
-14.2 pts
#161 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Doug Marrone (2009–2012) · succeeded by Dino Babers (2016–2023).

Season201320142015Trend
Record & result
Record6–63–94–8
Postseason———
Recruiting rank—#52#57
Style — pass rate
Pass rate—47.540.7
Coordinators
OC—George McDonaldTim Lester
DC—Chuck BulloughChuck Bullough
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense—418
Defense—8836
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%—35.830.2
Red-zone pass%—38.933.0
4th-down go%opp. territory—15.915.0
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Grows Interior line from high school
100%
#198 of 224 stints

6 NFL Draft picks: Justin Pugh (2013), Ryan Nassib (2013), Shamarko Thomas (2013), Jay Bromley (2014), Marquis Spruill (2014), Riley Dixon (2016)

13–23