UL Monroe is near the bottom of the model. The math is the story.
- Win total 4.5 — line flat since open
- UL Monroe enters 2025 at No
How past storylines turned out
UL Monroe's head-coaching hire held for another season.
UL Monroe's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
How it developed newest first
UL Monroe: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
why it mattersBryant Vincent enters his third season at UL Monroe with a 3-9 losing record to overcome, as the program's identity hinges on reclaiming its historic upset legacy and reshaping its struggling units. ~ our read
UL Monroe: the fanbase's identity shifting.
why it mattersBryant Vincent begins his second season at ULM, inheriting a 3-9 losing record and a program whose identity hinges on its 2012 Alabama upset and Malone Stadium legacy. ~ our read
UL Monroe enters 2026 rated No. 131 in 2025 SP+ (-21.6), down 9 spots from 2024.
top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
why it mattersUL Monroe enters 2026 — the 3-9 record and 1% returning production contrast sharply with the 2012 Alabama upset that defined its identity, raising questions about whether the program can. ~ our read
UL Monroe enters 2025 rated No. 131 in SP+ (-21.6), down 9 spots from 2024.
top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
why it mattersUL Monroe enters 2025 at No. 131 in SP+ — the 9-spot drop under Bryant Vincent raises one question: how to overcome top-quintile production losses. ~ our read
Watch next
The non-obvious thing to track
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
~ our read
Rooms tap to switch
The 'the projection is underselling us' read — fans betting the season beats the preview number.
No coverage in this room yet.
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter — efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
The range consensus, not a gap
“Burton, Reid connect on 43-yard TD to send UAB to comeback win against Louisiana Monroe”