This week · as of Wed Nov 4

7-1, won 7 straight, on track for 11-1 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianCoastal CarolinaLibertyApp StateApp StateOld DominionOld DominionPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelCoastal Carolina, 2017: 3-9, Regional Program IVCoastal Carolina, 2017: 3-9, Regional Program IV20173-9Coastal Carolina, 2019: 5-7, Regional Program IV20195-7Coastal Carolina, 2020: 11-1, Regional Program IV202011-1Coastal Carolina, 2021: 11-2, Regional Program III202111-2Coastal Carolina, 2022: 9-3, Regional Program IIICoastal Carolina, 2022: 9-3, Regional Program III20229-3Liberty when he took over: 18.5 (Regional Program III), its final 2022 readingtook overLiberty, 2023: 13-1, Regional Program IILiberty, 2023: 13-1, Regional Program II202313-1Liberty, 2024: 8-4, Regional Program II20248-4Liberty, 2025: 4-8, Regional Program II20254-8Liberty, 2026: 7-1, Regional Program IILiberty, 2026: 7-1, Regional Program II20267-1+2.9best: 2023gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 1-3

Coastal Carolina2020Cure BowlL 34-372021Cure BowlW 47-41Liberty2023Fiesta BowlL 6-452024Bahamas BowlL 7-26

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 49-10 vs. Florida International Sat Oct 31
  • This season7-1 won 7 straight
  • On track for11-1 regular season
  • Nextat New Mexico State Sat Nov 7
  • Stature81st of 138 FBS programs

Saturday: at New Mexico State

Sat Nov 7, 8 pm ET ESPNU · New Mexico State is 3-5 · Chadwell vs. Tony Sanchez: 2-0 · Liberty’s chance to win: 96% (the site’s model)

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 24th of 138 per play. Defense: 15th.

Offense, per play24thRunning offense9thDefense, per play15thDefense, opponents' starting field position1stWorstBest
Offense, per play24th of 138Running offense9th of 138Defense, per play15th of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position1st of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Liberty. The other two rows are where Liberty stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at New Mexico State (3-5)ESPNU96%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Middle Tennessee (4-4)CBS Sports Network97%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Western Kentucky (3-5)92%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Missouri State (3-5)94%

Percent: Liberty’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Liberty stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

81st88th94thPreseason91stJames Madison L 13-20James Madison L 13-20L 13-20James Madison91stGardner-Webb W 24-23Gardner-Webb W 24-23W 24-23Gardner-Webb91stBall State W 51-15Ball State W 51-15W 51-15Ball State91stCoastal Carolina W 34-17Coastal Carolina W 34-17W 34-17Coastal Carol…88thDelaware W 30-14Delaware W 30-14W 30-14Delaware88thSam Houston W 35-3Sam Houston W 35-3W 35-3Sam Houston87thKennesaw State W 34-6Kennesaw State W 34-6W 34-6Kennesaw State87thFlorida International W 49-10Florida International W 49-10W 49-10Florida Inter…85thBye84th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 49-10 vs. Florida International1 headline · 87th of 138
  2. Oct 19–25W 34-6 at Kennesaw State4 headlines · 65th of 138
  3. Oct 12–18No game0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11W 35-3 vs. Sam Houston1 headline · 83rd of 138
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 30-14 at Delaware1 headline · 82nd of 138
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 34-17 at Coastal Carolina3 headlines · 68th of 138ICYMI: Dominating second half leads Liberty to a 34-17 win over Coastal Carolina in Jamey Chadwell’s return to the beach (AUDIO) SportsTalkSC

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Liberty’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 86th percentile offense, below the median defense at 41st.

Liberty, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

A
of which —86th
efficiency — 86th percentile success rate, 2023–25
A86th
Standard-downs success
B+72nd
Passing-downs success
A84th
Trench push (line yards)
C+49th
Red-zone scoring rate
B+75th
Power-success (short yardage)
C-38th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

C
of which —41st
41st percentile SP+ defense, 2023–25
B66th
Front-7 havoc
B+77th
Secondary havoc
B-59th
Stuff rate (run defense)
B-53rd
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Poach watch

This winter

36%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobCoveted5th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 7-1, outscoring opponents by 20.2 points a game
  • ▲ Higher
    His 4th season at Liberty
  • ▲ Higher
    Age 49 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.