The Zeitgeist List · coaching

Paul Johnson

Followed Chan Gailey. Paul Johnson moved Georgia Tech from National Program I to Power Program III in 11 seasons.

The empire-builder
128–89
2002–2018 · 2 stints
NavyGeorgia Tech
← all coaches

Career arc

His real stature score, season by season, across every program he’s coached — so a stretch that stays in one tier the whole way can still climb or sink on the line, not just flatten out. Node color marks the tier reached. Which program a stretch belongs to is carried by the shaded lane behind it.

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerNAVYGEORGIA TECHPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelNavy, 2002: 2-10, Regional Program IV2002Navy, 2003: 8-5, Regional Program IVNavy, 2004: 10-2, Regional Program IVNavy, 2005: 8-4, Regional Program IIINavy, 2006: 9-4, Regional Program IIINavy, 2007: 8-4, Regional Program II2007+8.0Georgia Tech, 2008: 9-4, National Program I2008Georgia Tech, 2009: 11-3, Power Program IIIGeorgia Tech, 2010: 6-7, Power Program IIIGeorgia Tech, 2011: 8-5, Power Program IIIGeorgia Tech, 2012: 7-7, National Program IGeorgia Tech, 2013: 7-6, National Program IGeorgia Tech, 2014: 11-3, Power Program IIIGeorgia Tech, 2015: 3-9, Power Program IIIGeorgia Tech, 2016: 9-4, Power Program IIIGeorgia Tech, 2017: 5-6, Power Program IIIGeorgia Tech, 2018: 7-6, National Program I2018+3.7One point per coached season, in career order; dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Reached Power Program in his 8th career season — faster than 16% of the 395 FBS coaches who have ever reached Power Program (rank #314 of 395 by seasons-to-arrival).

Navy, 6 seasons
+8.0
Regional Program IV → Regional Program II.
Georgia Tech, 11 seasons
+3.7
National Program I → National Program I.

Style position and drift

Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.

20%Georgia Tech2008–2018▼ 6.0pt
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint

Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 258 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2014–2025.

Typical stint7.010.2 median13.9middle half of all stints
Georgia Tech10.3pt#127 of 258 · a typical amount

The big-game ledger

How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.

11–9 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Tyrone Willingham.

Rivalry record
11–9
55.0% · 3 rivals
One-score games
33–36
47.8% · margin ≤8
vs. Blue Blood or better
0–1
0.0%
Rivalry ledger
Georgia3–827%
Air Force4–180%
Army4–0100%
The toughest matchup
vs. Tyrone Willingham0–3
3 meetings, 2002–2004
’02 L’03 L’04 L
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0–1 0.0%
Blue Blood
5–6 45.5%
Power Program
16–36 30.8%
National Program
30–24 55.6%
Regional Program
49–16 75.4%

His own effect, isolated

A statistical estimate of this coach’s contribution to team performance, separated from that season’s roster talent, returning production, and his coordinators — pooled across his whole head-coaching career.

Defense marginal impact
-0.24
#281 of 325 · less than most

Model fit as of 2026-09-04.

Coaching career

2008–2018
Georgia Techcaretaker
National Program I → Power Program III
Paul Johnson moved Georgia Tech from National Program I to Power Program III in 11 seasons.

4th-best Georgia Tech tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Recruiter or developer?

Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent
+6.5 pts
#78 of 208 · a typical amount
Defense vs. talent
-19.4 pts
#173 of 208 · less than most
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Followed Chan Gailey (2002–2007) · succeeded by Geoff Collins (2019–2022).

Season20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018Trend
Record & result
Record9–411–36–78–57–77–611–33–99–45–67–6
Postseason——————W CFP—W CFP—L bowl
Recruiting rank——————#54#44#60#48#44
Style — pass rate
Pass rate——————20.424.820.815.814.5
Coordinators
OC———————————
DC——————Ted RoofTed RoofTed RoofTed RoofNate Woody
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense——————9850814167
Defense——————3653205012
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script (2021+ only)
1st-down pass%——————19.122.418.310.712.7
Red-zone pass%——————14.217.57.39.23.8
4th-down go%opp. territory——————34.443.834.344.050.0
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
DC: Ted Roof → Nate Woody · 2018
50th pct12th pct0th100th
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows K from high school
100%
#52 of 56 stints
Grows Edge from high school
100%
#191 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2014: Beat Mississippi State 49–34 CFP2016: Beat Kentucky 33–18 CFP2018: Lost to Minnesota 10–34 Quick Lane Bowl

22 NFL Draft picks: Philip Wheeler (2008), Tashard Choice (2008), Durant Brooks (2008), Michael Johnson (2009), Andrew Gardner (2009), Vance Walker (2009), Darryl Richard (2009), Derrick Morgan (2010) + 14 more

83–60
2002–2007
Navycaretaker
Regional Program IV → Regional Program II
Paul Johnson moved Navy from Regional Program IV to Regional Program II in 6 seasons.

15th-best Navy tenure of 18 by the numbers.

Followed Charlie Weatherbie (1995–2001).

45–29