Ryan Carty

Head coach · Delaware
2nd season · since 2025

At Delaware11-10since 2025 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatCool2% · 76th of 132 jobsLast gameW 35-21at Western Kentucky · Oct 27Nextat Kennesaw StateSat Nov 7 · 3 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, won 2 straight, on track for 7-5 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 1-0

202568 Ventures BowlW 20-13

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 35-21 at Western Kentucky Tue Oct 27
  • This season4-4 won 2 straight
  • On track for7-5 regular season
  • Nextat Kennesaw State Sat Nov 7
  • Stature120th of 138 FBS programs

Saturday: at Kennesaw State

Sat Nov 7, 3 pm ET ESPN+ · Kennesaw State is 2-6 · First meeting between Carty and Jerry Mack as head coaches · Delaware’s chance to win: 71% (the site’s model)

Offense: 56th of 138 per play. Defense: 103rd.

Offense, per play56thOffense, starting field position9thDefense, per play103rdDefense, knocking offenses off schedule128thWorstBest
Offense, per play56th of 138Offense, starting field position9th of 138Defense, per play103rd of 138Defense, knocking offenses off schedule128th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Delaware. The other two rows are where Delaware stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Kennesaw State (2-6)ESPN+71%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Florida International (3-5)ESPN+78%
  3. Sat Nov 21at New Mexico State (3-5)81%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Jacksonville State (6-2)CBS Sports Network52%

Percent: Delaware’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Delaware stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

116th122nd128thPreseason124thMerrimack W 42-7Merrimack W 42-7W 42-7Merrimack124thVanderbilt L 26-35Vanderbilt L 26-35L 26-35Vanderbilt122ndCoastal Carolina W 22-14Coastal Carolina W 22-14W 22-14Coastal Carol…121stVirginia L 3-42Virginia L 3-42L 3-42Virginia120thLiberty L 14-30Liberty L 14-30L 14-30Liberty121stMiddle Tennessee L 30-33Middle Tennessee L 30-33L 30-33Middle Tennes…122ndMissouri State W 61-38Missouri State W 61-38W 61-38Missouri State125thWestern Kentucky W 35-21Western Kentucky W 35-21W 35-21Western Kentu…124th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 35-21 at Western Kentucky0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25W 61-38 vs. Missouri State0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18L 30-33 at Middle Tennessee0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11No game0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 14-30 vs. Liberty0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 3-42 at Virginia0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Delaware’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

2%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool76th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202520262025, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 114th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 1%, 115th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 110th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (5 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (6 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (7 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 87th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 87th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 87th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 88th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 4%, 73rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 4%, 72nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 6%, 58th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 3%, 71st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 2%, 76th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    4-4, outscoring opponents by 13
  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 2 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Regional Program program · the bar going in

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in year 2, after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 469 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

3%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled61st-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    7-6 over his previous season here
  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 4-4, outscoring opponents by 1.6 points a game
  • ▼ Lower
    Age 43 · coaching at his alma mater
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.