Timmy Chang

Head coach · Hawai'i
5th season · since 2022

At Hawai'i24-35since 2022 · 2-6 this seasonHot seatHot34% · 8th of 132 jobsLast gameW 56-21at Northern Illinois · Oct 24Nextat UTEPSat Nov 7 · 9:30 pm ET · FS1
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

2-6, on track for 4-8 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerHawai'iUNLVUNLVRegional Programthe building-block levelHawai'i when he took over: 14.7 (Regional Program IV), its final 2021 readingtook overHawai'i, 2022: 3-10, Regional Program IVHawai'i, 2022: 3-10, Regional Program IV20223-10Hawai'i, 2023: 5-8, Regional Program IV20235-8Hawai'i, 2024: 5-7, Regional Program IV20245-7Hawai'i, 2025: 9-4, Regional Program IV20259-4Hawai'i, 2026: 2-6, Regional Program IVHawai'i, 2026: 2-6, Regional Program IV20262-6-0.8best: 2025gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 1-0

2025Hawaii BowlW 35-31

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 56-21 at Northern Illinois Sat Oct 24
  • This season2-6
  • Hot seat34% 8th of 132
  • On track for4-8 regular season
  • Nextat UTEP Sat Nov 7
  • Stature107th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 32%. Lose and he’s at 40%.

at UTEP, Sat Nov 7, 9:30 pm ET FS1 · UTEP is 1-7 · First meeting between Chang and Scotty Walden as head coaches · Hawai'i’s chance to win: 81% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Hawai'i wins: 32%, 8th of 132Now: 34%If Hawai'i loses: 40%, 6th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Hawai'i wins: 32%, 8th of 132
  • Now: 34%
  • If Hawai'i loses: 40%, 6th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

34% chance he’s out after the season · 8th of 132 FBS head coaches · Hot

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow45% had they lost45% had they lostLoss 40%Win 32%9%10%22%24%31%40%44%43%34%Pre1L at StanfordL2L vs. UNLVL3W vs. New Mexico StateW4L at WyomingL5L vs. San José StateL6L at Arizona StateL7L vs. New MexicoL8W at Northern IllinoisW9Chance to win at UTEP81%10Chance to win vs. North Dakota State28%11Chance to win at Nevada56%12Chance to win vs. Sacramento State81%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow45% had they lost45% had they lostLoss 40%Win 32%9%34%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 2-1050%
  2. 3-941%
  3. 4-834%
  4. 5-726%
  5. 6-618%

The case for a change

  • 010-win seasons in 4 years here. His best is 9 wins, once.
  • 2-6this season so far

The case for patience

  • 3straight wins over Nevada. Next meeting: week 12, on the road.

Facts from his record in this job, both ways. No verdict.

Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202220232024202520262022, week 3 (4 games in): 3%, 82nd-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (5 games in): 4%, 81st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 4%, 76th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): 4%, 76th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (7 games in): 3%, 78th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (8 games in): 4%, 77th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (9 games in): 4%, 67th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (10 games in): 4%, 65th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (11 games in): 5%, 63rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (12 games in): 4%, 65th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 4%, 60th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 4%, 60th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 4%, 60th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (4 games in): 29%, 12th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (5 games in): 27%, 14th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (6 games in): 29%, 15th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 29%, 14th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (7 games in): 36%, 8th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (8 games in): 38%, 7th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (9 games in): 38%, 7th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (10 games in): 31%, 11th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (11 games in): 26%, 14th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (12 games in): 29%, 12th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 29%, 13th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 29%, 13th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 29%, 13th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 33%, 10th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 30%, 16th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 30%, 18th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 34%, 14th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 38%, 8th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 37%, 13th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 32%, 14th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 26%, 17th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (10 games in): 30%, 15th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (11 games in): 32%, 12th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 32%, 11th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 28%, 13th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 28%, 13th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 28%, 13th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (4 games in): 25%, 12th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (5 games in): 27%, 13th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (6 games in): 22%, 23rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (6 games in): 22%, 21st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (7 games in): 16%, 33rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (8 games in): 13%, 38th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 13%, 34th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 13%, 35th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (10 games in): 10%, 38th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 10%, 39th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 11%, 37th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 9%, 40th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 9%, 40th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 9%, 40th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 24%, 20th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 31%, 12th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 40%, 9th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 44%, 6th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 43%, 6th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 34%, 10th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 34%, 10th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 34%, 8th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 6▲ 1-5, outscored by 54

Hottest: 2026, week 6 (44%, 6th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 1-5, outscored by 54

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    2-6, outscored by 30
  • ▲ Hotter
    $58K buyout (USA Today estimate) · 0.1× his pay, a multiple among the smallest in FBS — cheap to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 5 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 2-6 after 8 games
16% pushed out over results · of 288 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 8 games
14% pushed out over results · of 700 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$57,576 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 0.1× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 16%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 123rd of 138 per play. Defense: 123rd.

Offense, per play123rdRunning offense130thDefense, per play123rdRun defense124thWorstBest
Offense, per play123rd of 138Running offense130th of 138Defense, per play123rd of 138Run defense124th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Hawai'i. The other two rows are where Hawai'i stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at UTEP (1-7)FS181%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. North Dakota State (7-2)The CW28%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Nevada (3-5)56%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Sacramento State (2-7)MW+81%

Percent: Hawai'i’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Hawai'i stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

102nd108th114thPreseason108thUNLV L 6-21UNLV L 6-21L 6-21UNLV107thStanford L 27-37Stanford L 27-37L 27-37Stanford107thNew Mexico State W 29-19New Mexico State W 29-19W 29-19New Mexico St…106thWyoming L 10-27Wyoming L 10-27L 10-27Wyoming106thSan José State L 16-20San José State L 16-20L 16-20San José State107thArizona State L 12-30Arizona State L 12-30L 12-30Arizona State109thNew Mexico L 10-21New Mexico L 10-21L 10-21New Mexico111thNorthern Illinois W 56-21Northern Illinois W 56-21W 56-21Northern Illi…109thBye108th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25W 56-21 at Northern Illinois0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18L 10-21 vs. New Mexico0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11L 12-30 at Arizona State1 headline · 83rd of 138
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 16-20 vs. San José State0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 10-27 at Wyoming0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Hawai'i’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 54th percentile offense, below the median defense at 25th.

Hawai'i, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B-
of which —54th
efficiency — 54th percentile success rate, 2022–25
B-54th
Standard-downs success
B-53rd
Passing-downs success
B63rd
Trench push (line yards)
B-54th
Red-zone scoring rate
C-39th
Power-success (short yardage)
D29th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

D
of which —25th
25th percentile SP+ defense, 2022–25
B67th
Front-7 havoc
B+71st
Secondary havoc
C-38th
Stuff rate (run defense)
F14th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.