Colorado State: a football coaching history

Big movers show how many stature points they built or lost against what they inherited; steadier tenures show the tier they reached instead. A small blue arrow marks a real System Shift at that changeover — how hard the offense’s run/pass identity flipped.

2026–now

Jim Mora Short tenure

2026 defense ranked in the 0th percentile nationally — historically bad

3-5

2025

Tyson Summers Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

0-5

2022–2025

Jay Norvell Steady

Jay Norvell slid Colorado State from Regional Program III to Regional Program IV in 4 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−4.0 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 42% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike Sanford Sr.’s UNLV run (2005–2009)

14th-best Colorado State tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Steve Addazio (2020–2021) · succeeded by Tyson Summers (2025).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2022	2023	2024	2025
Record & result
Record	3-9	5-7	8-5	2-5
Postseason	—	—	L bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#78	#70	#69	#106
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	45.5	60.1	45.5	52.0
Coordinators
OC	Matt Mumme	Matt Mumme	Matt Mumme	Matt Mumme
DC	Freddie Banks	Freddie Banks	Freddie Banks	Tyson Summers
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	8	39	41	33
Defense	48	37	39	8
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	42.9	48.9	32.3	48.0
Red-zone pass%	32.2	47.7	26.5	38.1
4th-down go%opp. territory	47.2	20.6	41.3	51.6

Recruiter or developer?

Underperforms his recruiting talent on offense and performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

-12.1 pts

#157 of 208 · bottom quarter

Defense vs. talent

-10.3 pts

#152 of 208 · middle half

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Roster construction · portal era

A typical amount of portal roster-building.

Portal arrivals

2.9★ avg rating

Portal departures

left via the portal

Net portal flow

-24

#99 of 187 FBS stints

Who they bring in

Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.

Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.

Avg. size (raw)

6′2″, 234 lbs

across 42 of 50 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix

Size vs. position-typical

+1.7 lbs

#201 of 255 · bottom quarter

Avg. class year

#1 of 255 · top quarter

Top states: TX (11), CA (8), WA (4), CO (4), GA (3)

Who won the portal our read

Talent added

53.9

position-weighted

Talent lost

55.2

position-weighted

Net

-1.3

arrivals minus departures

Best addition: Clay Millen (QB) from Nevada

Biggest loss: Evan Olaes (QB) to the portal

Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.

Roster size, by position

Skill positions · usage-weighted (real participation)

Quarterback

199 lbs

6′3″ avg · #711 of 767 · bottom quarter

Running back

201 lbs

5′11″ avg · #600 of 791 · bottom quarter

Wide receiver

192 lbs

6′1″ avg · #434 of 791 · middle half

Tight end

236 lbs

6′4″ avg · #645 of 731 · bottom quarter

Trench & secondary · recruited roster, not confirmed starters

Interior line

305 lbs

6′5″ avg · #540 of 779 · middle half

D-line

268 lbs

6′3″ avg · #684 of 753 · bottom quarter

Linebacker

225 lbs

6′2″ avg · #575 of 772 · middle half

Cornerback

188 lbs

6′0″ avg · #496 of 771 · middle half

Offensive-line size is one undifferentiated bucket — the source data almost never distinguishes tackle from guard from center, so we can't split them out.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Buys Athlete via the portal

30%

#16 of 146 stints

Buys Cornerback via the portal

75%

#27 of 236 stints

Grows Safety from high school

88%

#195 of 218 stints

Grows Wide receiver from high school

73%

#203 of 243 stints

Postseason detail2024: Lost to Miami (OH) 17-43 Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl

2 NFL Draft picks: Mohamed Kamara (2024), Tory Horton (2025)

AI Narratives — “Colorado State — stat check”.

−4.0

18-26

2020–2021

Steve Addazio Short tenure

No outlier style signal this stint

4-12

2015–2019

Mike Bobo Steady

Mike Bobo slid the Rams from Regional Program II to Regional Program III in 5 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−1.6 pts over 5 seasons · top 41% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Jeff Horton’s UNLV run (1994–1998)

5th-best Colorado State tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Jim McElwain (2012–2014) · succeeded by Steve Addazio (2020–2021).

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Record & result
Record	7-6	7-6	7-6	3-9	4-8
Postseason	L bowl	L bowl	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	#119	#76	#73	#86	#84
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	42.3	40.1	47.0	56.2	53.0
Coordinators
OC	Will Friend	Will Friend	Will Friend	Dave Johnson	Dave Johnson
DC	Tyson Summers	Marty English	Marty English	John Jancek	John Jancek
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	64	94	86	38	46
Defense	28	15	15	16	49
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	39.5	30.1	42.5	52.5	51.5
Red-zone pass%	34.8	33.7	39.1	47.0	45.0
4th-down go%opp. territory	30.0	29.6	34.1	19.2	35.0

Recruiter or developer?

Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.

Offense vs. talent

+19.8 pts

#42 of 208 · top quarter

Defense vs. talent

-21.9 pts

#181 of 208 · bottom quarter

Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.

Does the system survive a coordinator change?

OC: Will Friend → Dave Johnson · 2018The offense collapsed across the change

2-season window either side.

1st-down pass rate: 36.3% → 52.0% (+15.7 pts)

Confound, shown not hidden: only 21% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.

DC: Tyson Summers → Marty English · 2016

1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.

DC: Marty English → John Jancek · 2018The system held

2-season window either side.

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2015: Lost to Nevada 23-28 Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl2016: Lost to Idaho 50-61 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl2017: Lost to Marshall 28-31 Gildan New Mexico Bowl

4 NFL Draft picks: Rashard Higgins (2016), Cory James (2016), Michael Gallup (2018), Olabisi Johnson (2019)

−1.6

28-35

2012–2014

Jim McElwain Steady

Jim McElwain moved Colorado State from Regional Program IV to Regional Program II in 3 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

+7.0 pts over 3 seasons · top 10% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Sonny Dykes’s Louisiana Tech run (2010–2012)

7th-best Colorado State tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Steve Fairchild (2008–2011) · succeeded by Mike Bobo (2015–2019).

System Shift, on departure

System Shift, on arrival

Season	2012	2013	2014
Record & result
Record	4-8	8-6	10-2
Postseason	—	W bowl	—
Recruiting rank	#120	#84	#86
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	46.8	45.7	50.7
Coordinators
OC	—	—	Dave Baldwin
DC	—	—	Marty English / Al Simmons
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	31	86	89
Defense	51	82	20
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	44.5	40.9	45.2
Red-zone pass%	26.2	33.0	35.5
4th-down go%opp. territory	19.2	40.0	25.9

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail2013: Beat Washington State 48-45 Gildan New Mexico Bowl

4 NFL Draft picks: Weston Richburg (2014), Crockett Gillmore (2014), Ty Sambrailo (2015), Garrett Grayson (2015)

+7.0

22-16

2008–2011

Steve Fairchild Steady

Steve Fairchild slid Colorado State from Regional Program I to Regional Program IV in 4 seasons.

No outlier style signal this stint

−11.0 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 9% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Will Muschamp’s Florida run (2011–2014)

3rd-best Colorado State tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Sonny Lubick (1993–2007) · succeeded by Jim McElwain (2012–2014).

System Shift, on arrival

System Shift, on departure

Season	2008	2009	2010	2011
Record & result
Record	7-6	3-9	3-9	3-9
Postseason	W bowl	—	—	—
Recruiting rank	#91	#94	#70	#76
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	48.4	43.9	50.1	43.2
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	74	56	27	32
Defense	8	20	7	10
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	41.7	37.3	49.6	44.6
Red-zone pass%	32.3	27.3	32.2	33.3
4th-down go%opp. territory	40.9	30.8	27.6	44.8

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Kicker from high school

100%

#52 of 56 stints

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Postseason detail2008: Beat Fresno State 40-35 Bowl

2 NFL Draft picks: Gartrell Johnson (2009), Shelley Smith (2010)

−11.0

16-33

1993–2007

Sonny Lubick Builder

Sonny Lubick raised the Rams from Regional Program III to National Program II.

2004 defense ranked in the 3th percentile nationally — historically bad

+20.2 pts over 15 seasons · top 26% of 10+-season tenures (202 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Kirby Smart’s Georgia run (2016–now)

1st-best Colorado State tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Earle Bruce (1989–1992) · succeeded by Steve Fairchild (2008–2011).

System Shift, on departure

Season	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007
Record & result
Record	5-6	10-2	8-4	7-5	11-2	8-4	8-4	10-2	7-5	10-4	7-6	4-7	6-6	4-8	3-9
Postseason	—	L bowl	L bowl	—	W bowl	—	L bowl	W bowl	W bowl	L bowl	L bowl	—	L bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	#58	#84	#74	#81
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	47.2	48.9	49.4	37.8
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	69	81	46	30
Defense	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	3	3	42	17
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	52.1	45.4	51.0	34.1
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	51.6	41.0	33.9	27.9
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	30.8	28.1	33.3

Where the roster comes from, by position

Grows Tight end from high school

100%

#164 of 188 stints

Grows Edge from high school

100%

#191 of 208 stints

Postseason detail1994: Lost to Michigan 14-24 Bowl1995: Lost to Kansas State 21-54 Bowl1997: Beat New Mexico 41-13 Bowl1997: Beat Missouri 35-24 Bowl1999: Lost to Southern Miss 17-23 Bowl2000: Beat Louisville 22-17 Bowl2001: Beat North Texas 45-20 Bowl2002: Lost to TCU 3-17 Bowl2003: Lost to Boston College 21-35 Bowl2005: Lost to Navy 30-51 Bowl

16 NFL Draft picks: Calvin Branch (1997), Moses Moreno (1998), Joey Porter (1999), Anthony Cesario (1999), Jason Craft (1999), Darran Hall (1999), Clark Haggans (2000), Erik Olson (2000) + 8 more

+20.2

108-74

1989–1992

Earle Bruce Steady

Earle Bruce moved the Rams from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 4 seasons.

+4.0 pts over 4 seasons · top 16% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mario Cristobal’s Miami run (2022–now)

8th-best Colorado State tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Leon Fuller (1982–1988) · succeeded by Sonny Lubick (1993–2007).

Season	1989	1990	1991	1992
Record & result
Record	5-5-1	9-4	3-8	5-7
Postseason	—	W bowl	—	—
Recruiting rank	—	—	—	—
Style — pass rate
Pass rate	—	—	—	—
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense	—	—	—	—
Defense	—	—	—	—
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%	—	—	—	—
Red-zone pass%	—	—	—	—
4th-down go%opp. territory	—	—	—	—

Postseason detail1990: Beat Oregon 32-31 Bowl

1 NFL Draft pick: Selwyn Jones (1992)

+4.0

22-24-1

1982–1988

Leon Fuller Steady

Leon Fuller slid Colorado State from Regional Program III to Regional Program IV in 7 seasons.

−2.5 pts over 7 seasons · bottom 34% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Mike MacIntyre’s Colorado run (2013–2018)

11th-best Colorado State tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Chester Caddas (1981) · succeeded by Earle Bruce (1989–1992).

7 NFL Draft picks: Kevin Call (1984), Terry Nugent (1984), Keli McGregor (1985), Terry Unrein (1986), Kelly Stouffer (1987), Steve Bartalo (1987), Steve DeLine (1987)

−2.5

25-55

1981

Chester Caddas Short tenure

0-6

1973–1981

Sarkis Arslanian Steady≈

Sarkis Arslanian moved the Rams from Regional Program IV to Regional Program II in 9 seasons.

+10.0 pts over 9 seasons · top 16% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Chuck Amato’s NC State run (2000–2006)

4th-best Colorado State tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Jerry Wampfler (1970–1972) · succeeded by Chester Caddas (1981).

12 NFL Draft picks: Mark Mullaney (1975), Al Simpson (1975), Kim Jones (1975), Kevin McLain (1976), Keith King (1977), Al Baker (1978), Cliff Featherstone (1978), Mike Bell (1979) + 4 more

+10.0

45-47-4

1970–1972

Jerry Wampfler Steady

Jerry Wampfler slid Colorado State from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 3 seasons.

−0.2 pts over 3 seasons · top 35% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Gerry DiNardo’s Vanderbilt run (1991–1994)

10th-best Colorado State tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Milo Lude (1962–1969) · succeeded by Sarkis Arslanian (1973–1981).

3 NFL Draft picks: Lawrence McCutcheon (1972), Jim White (1972), Perry Smith (1973)

−0.2

8-25

1962–1969

Milo Lude Steady

Milo Lude held Colorado State at Regional Program IV for 8 seasons.

+3.0 pts over 8 seasons · top 47% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Ron Zook’s Illinois run (2005–2011)

12th-best Colorado State tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Tuffy Mullison (1956–1961) · succeeded by Jerry Wampfler (1970–1972).

4 NFL Draft picks: Jon Henderson (1968), Oscar Reed (1968), Bill Kishman (1969), Terry Swarn (1969)

+3.0

29-51-1

1956–1961

Tuffy Mullison Steady

Tuffy Mullison slid Colorado State from Regional Program II to Regional Program III in 6 seasons.

−6.8 pts over 6 seasons · bottom 14% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Tim Lester’s Western Michigan run (2017–2022)

9th-best Colorado State tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Robert Davis (1947–1955) · succeeded by Milo Lude (1962–1969).

−6.8

19-40-1

1947–1955

Robert Davis Steady

Robert Davis moved the Rams from Regional Program IV to Regional Program II in 9 seasons.

+8.6 pts over 9 seasons · top 21% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Randy Walker’s Miami (OH) run (1990–1998)

6th-best Colorado State tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Julius Wagner (1945–1946) · succeeded by Tuffy Mullison (1956–1961).

+8.6

54-33-2

1942, 1945–1946

Julius Wagner Steady

Julius Wagner held Colorado State at Regional Program IV for 3 seasons.

−5.0 pts over 3 seasons · bottom 36% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)

Closest comparable run: Derek Mason’s Middle Tennessee run (2024–now)

13th-best Colorado State tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Followed Harry Hughes (1936–1941) · succeeded by Robert Davis (1947–1955).

−5.0

8-15-1

1936–1941

Harry Hughes Steady

Harry Hughes held Colorado State at National Program II for 6 seasons.

2nd-best Colorado State tenure of 14 by the numbers.

Succeeded by Julius Wagner (1942).

National Program II

15-29-6